POST-WAR PROBLEMS,

Grey River Argus, 7 December 1918, Page 3

POST-WAR PROBLEMS,

Following the close of the war now com«s the difficult task « f arranging, the terms of peace. In this connection it is gratifying to note that ' the. representatives of. the Dominions will have seats at the Peace. Conference. One of the outstanding ..questions for Australasia is of course the destiny of the German Colonies in the . Pacific. These cannot, an.d must not, be,returned to Germany to become in the future bases for submarines and aircraft,, anct therefore a menace to the peaceful developments of the, British Dominions in these seas^ There are, of course other matters .of great jaoment in which we are interested, thata are bound : to be discussed at the PeaC'o Conference; but the determination of the disposal of the German ; Colonies in the Pacific is, to us; a very important question. Australian, %p.<L New Zealand statesmen aye, , happily unamimous on this pointy >. ;4

The active work of repatriation';? J6storation, and reconstruction MyAt now be undertaken,, and the grcatt^st intelligence and the greatest organising ability wili have to be. iitflisjitf ; for this purpose, for a* every •iStfpcomplicated, arid seripuS pi-oblfims .>? ag 1 * bound to proseut . tlientseiv&s" for ■■&>}s* : tion. It, seems to, mp. that the tr^?* ' tipn period -will be, bo ioss trying _ 6^d anxious than tlie war perioa .Ms- bejG;4; 'and the best efforts or every iiw|i^iI dual in the epnVmunity will . be n<||^<J: ito maintain ihe> economic "machinery 'in smooth!ly-running order. ■:*'"?. I Ido not anticipate an inuueiai^e • variation' iti. the prosperity rthat .J;Ma Domiriion has enjoyed during -the opr j years of war. There will probably j'be for some time a prefi"^ denia^d for our foodstuffs ana :zrv msit.etiahl-. lit is practically assured that.ithc -=Inx--periai authoi-itics will t»>fre the output of wool for a period ot tweive ; moii|hs' from June following the declaration of peace; and aTrangeriients have now been concluded with them to take ouroutput of: cheese arid, butter for this and the. f olio \y ing season, at"satisfact-" *Orj f .price's. This places the .wool anttdairying industries- lipor j«q. a.ssu'rea footing f or ia considera^oiCi- period. r^.As r to meat,- however, \ whicli i, buik^v- so largely in our cxportsy the ipxeiipkk ■ tcrmv'of the commariideer 'i^Kj :. .lss)y .three, month's after {oTij^\r.6;ripfi'of .'tj&c war.. If this is not altered^ it' js 6.^nceiVablQ tt'^t in March or April i^ioxt. fh.6 fefrl^ei'ated stores will be ii&l^iiOh the doors, land transportation ;s&d realisation:- of ■ the meat in fstof^e woul<t probiibiy occupy not less thran eighteen month's". . .. ' . =- •-■- ■' •■ « ?• It is, -;I consider j highly ben'eficiat^to. Newy.iZealand that these forward . contracts have been, made with th.c th~ pferiil Government in' regard*' to wool -' <Gotttiiwi«d; 6ft >Pag« 4J : •.•? "■

.and dairy produce; and in my opinion it would be to the advantage of the 'Dominion if the prinicple Were also extended to meat. The -vrar prosperity of th© Dominion has been largely due to the operations in produce by the Im perial Government; and until, at any 'rate, normal business conditions preIvail and the shipping position imIproves considerably, the advantages of n. continuance of these operations arc to my mind obvious. There is now in cold-store of frozen meat alone a quantity equal to about ( 4i million 601 b. freight carcases; there are also considerable quantities of 'cheese and butter and a large amount 'df wool. In addition, there are heavy stocks of tallow, pelts, hemp, and otheT products, which have not been ! commandeered by the Imperial Government. I (The present season, for reasons I nave already given, is a backward one, so that not much of the current year's yield has yet got into store. It must be borne in mind that all the Imperial jly-requisitioned produce -will £aye to be lifted in priority to purchase on 'private account; and as the British 'commandeer of shipping will probably mot be relaxed for some considerable jtime, it is clear that private purchasers would in that case have to take heavy risks. It Is easy to understand .that if the bulk of next season's meat has to be held in the refrigated stores pending a market being found for it, a difficult, and in some cases, unsatisfactory situation would arise.

The scarcity of tonnage is likely to continue — indeed is certain to continue — for several months, notwithstanding the fact that a fair amount of shipping will be released through there being no longer any necessity to transport munitions and men. It may not be out of place to remind far■mers and others who have accused the shipowners of exploiting the public, and so profiteering, that all ships on the British Register were requistioned BANK NEW ZEALAND 3

during the early part of 1917 at Blue Book rates, these rates being approximately one- third of those then obtainable in the open market. The differenece between the Blue Book rates and those now current benefits, not the ship-owner, but the Imperial Government. So long as the British authorities continue their control of shipping, so long will it be diffi cult to kno.>v just what number of vessels will be available for our productradc.

I£ is moreover of the utmost import ance to us that the income from the sale of produce should be as large during the next , two years as it is this year, to enable us to meet our obligations in the meantime whilst we are making provision for the readjustment of our affairs to meet the changed conditions. Had we been able to foretell a year ago just exactly when the war would end, we could have made some preparation to meet the situation; but the end has come suddenly, and the post-war problems have yet to be grappled with. . One great burden that the war has 'forced upon us is a huge public debt. The Minister of Finance Ms repeatedly stated, since his return irom England, that the public debt is about £200,000,000. This at 4i per cent, means an interest bill of £9,000,000 per annum, or say £750,000 a month; and there will be in addition, the heavy pension bill to meet. These two items will absorb about eleven to twelve millions a year. 'mis is a very heavy load for the country to carry, and it necessarily means that taxation must for some time be heavy. There is, however, one feature about the debt that redounds to the credit of the people. A large proportion of tho money required for the prosecution of the war was obtained within New Zealand. It was recently, stated officially that the amount < the war loans raised in the ucmmion was equal to about £40 per head of the population, a truely magnificent achievement. Well as the people of New Zealand have done, the people in the British Isles have done infinitely better. Ihe Chancellor of the Exchequer the otter day obtained a. credit vote ot ±,7,UUU--000, which does not represent the end of such votes. With this vote, the total is brought up to the huge sum of £8,742,000,000, made up as under:

The debt due to Great Britain from the Allies on August Ist was £1,402,---000,000, and from the Dominions £208,---500,000; and both amounts would be considerably larger n ow. It was officially stated in the House of Commons that the National War Debt on September 30th last amounted to £6,875,- I 000,000; and there is the recent credit vote to be added ,which would bring the total to £7,575,000,000. It will probably take another £500,000,000 to repatriate the troops and for restoration, compensation, «te-> which would make fhe National War Debt about j £8,000,000,000. Of the amount due , to Britain from the Allies and Dominions, £1.000,000,000 is regarded as good and this would leave the debt at £7,000,000,00. The Interest Bill would probably total £315,000,000, which, with the amount required for the normal peace expenditure, would mean raising a revenue of £600,000,000 or three times the amount raised in the peace year of 1913-14. The people in Britain will be unable to indulge in any extravances and 'will be unable to afford fancy prices for. foodstuifs or for anything else. And this state of affairs is likely to continue for some time. But there will, I anticipate, be no sharp or sudden decline in the prices of our produce^ or, on the other hand, of the commodities we import. As regards imports, there is more likely to be an upward rather than a downward tendency, for a) time at least, in the cost of commodities that are imported into this country. There is a world-wide shortaage ot standard goods and of raw materials, and these cannot be produced in sufficient quantities to meet all demands for a very long time so that values, when they do recede, will do so gradually. Furthermore, so far as New Zealand is concerned, there will be a considerable difficulty in importing goods from Britain because a large , proportion, if not the whole of our steamers will be needed for the repa- j triation of troops. Merchants and im-_ porters are seriously urged to study/ the position carefully, and they will realise that there is no reason whatever for anything in the shape of a panic. The situation is an unfortunate one for the general public, for it means that the cost of living will con~ tinue high, though perhaps not quite so high as at present. High rates of freight as compared with pre-war days, increase in prime cost, and dim- J culty in procuring, will still operate in respect of imported goods and help i to maintain values; while the prices of the foodstuffs Which we ourselves ]

produce are unlikely to fall for some time owing to the strong demand there will be fos them to feed the starving millions of Europe. The same set of conditions -will operate m Australia, Canada, South Africa^ and India, so that the people of New Zealand will have no monopoly of complaint about the high cost of living. As a matter of fact, the cost of living in New Zealand is relatively as low as, if not lower than, in the Commonwealth, and certainly lower than in European countries. In view of all these circumstances, it is to be hoped that the imperative necessity of making the offending na r tions bear a substantial portion, if not the whole, of the war costs entailed, upon the Allies in defeating their ne-' farious designs will be strenuously insisted upon at the Peace Conference There should be no false and foolish sentimentalism or . ambypambyism when settling scores with the German nation. Recent disclosures prove beyond all possible doubt that Germany was the real instigatoz: of the wax, and had made complete plans towards that end some time before the actual declaration of hostilities. It is, therefore to be sincerely hoped that the abject appeals which the Hun is at present making to secure mitigation of the just punishment that is impending for his misdeeds will fall deaf ears and that the Allies will be inexorable in their tetms. What, 1 ask, wouid nave been the fate or the British empire if the Hun, instead ot being defeated, had been victorious i JL*& me quote an extract irom tne letter of a leading (ierman— the late ilerr Bailin— whicn was telegraplied out to tne p*ess quite re- ( eenwy. -tie wrote a lew days before his. death, discussing tUe forecasts ot tne armistice terms, which he admitted were unexpectedly moderate, and remarked: —

"If we had been the victors we "would have demanded the occupation of London and Paris, "dictated terms at Buckingham "Palace, and annexed the" entire 'continent between the Urals and "the Bay of Biscay."

Let me also remind you of the Iniquitous exactions to which poor Belgium has been subjected in order to provide for the maintenance of "an army of occupation, which by all the laws of right ajid justice should never have been in Belgian territory at all. Unquestionably upon the British Dominions grievous burdens would have been laid. In these circumstances, therefore, there need be no hesitation on our part in demanding what is obviously only fair and just to ourselves and our Allies.

Much will be made of the fact that Germany is financially in bankruptcy, arid unable at present to pay indemnities. That may be true; but if so, it is Germany's concern. She has brought it hipOn herself and can, therefore, be left to find a way out of her own embarrassments. But Germany is not bankrupt in resources. She is rich in natural wealth, and my firm opinion is that that natural wealth should be charged with the burden of the debt which th© civilised freedom-loving nations of the world have had to incur to protect their liberties against German aggression.

It should be arranged ,that specific taxes should be levied upon all Germany's primary , products to provide for payment ,within a reasonable period, \Qf._the _ Allied indebtedness, together with ~ifie~iaEereStr~t*rereoir-.---In this way, the magnitude of her iniquity and the inevitable consequences of crimes such as those of which Germany has been guilty, would be kept alive in the German mind for probably the next century, and would furnish one of the best guarantees against any reversion to militarism by the German nation. By that time the triumph of democracy would be complete.

My opinion is tliat the British Dominions, at any rate, should unequivocally demand to be indemnified aaginst the liability which German sreed and Capacity have forced upon them. If "the wealthiest members ot the Allied family desire to display generosity to the German nation, they can of course make any sacrifice they wish on their own account; l>ut as far as the Dominions are concerned, full indemnification should be afforded

The financial aspect is, moreover, not the only one that calls for consideration. Here, at this trystmg-place of the ages, stand outraged Justice and afflicted Humanity, appealing to the champions of Right — Justice demanding vindication of her honour, and Humanity crying out for redress of her grievances. The victors cannot turn a deaf ear to their appeal. Those responsible for the perpretation of the countless inhumanities, barbarisms and iniquities that "have made theis war a horror of horrors, should be arraigned at the bar of an international judicial tribunal and receive from that august Court the just punishment of their offences. The exalted station of a culprit should have no influence upon "the decrees of such Court. The braggart and blaspheming "All Highest," if niiown to be responsible, should receive tlie same fcrep.tment as the lowest common soldier.

Thus we shall perfect the work which our gallant dead have had to leave unfinished, and fill up tEe measure of their sacrifices, so that^ the splendour of their completed achievement shall go down with undimmed lustre to a grateful posterity, and shine for ever with an imperishable

glory. l Mi: W. Watson said. I thank the shareholders for again returning me to the Board unopposed, and assure them that I shall endeavour not %o neglect their interests. The gyeat changes in the business of the Bank brought about by the Government commandeer and purchase of the Dominion's principal products the lack of shipping, the absence or so many men, and the necessary taxation and removal of money for war expenses, have undoubtedly affected banking profits and that expansion and growth of ordinary business which otherwise would have taken place. On the other hand the Bank's funds have been kept well and safely employed during the period of the war, and everyone will admit that there has been no war exploitation on its .part.

It is important to the Bank, as it is to you in your private capacities, that restitution should be made by the country's enemies not only of the money of which we have been depleted by their unprovoked war,^ .but to provide the pensions and otfleritteinands consequent upon the deaths and other war casualties. It is beside the question to argue whether Germany can, or can not, pay these just claims. No such argument was entertained by Germany when she bled France white, besides taking Alsace Lorraine from her i n 1871. Neither was the Boxer indemnity remitted because China was unable to pay ; dn the contrary her revenues were taken as security, It is nonsense to say

that milder measures should be adopted towards Germany with her large resources, and he? people who, Socialists and all, supported the war and all its friglitfulness with bravado as long as they hoped to gain by it, and only changed to whining after defeat. It would be extremely unjust that we and our descendants should be saddled with the debts and taxation caused by the war, as well as Having to endure the loss of those who can never be replaced. Let us trust that New Zealand's delegates to the peace conference will use their; best endeavours to see that justice is done. Mr Matson was Te-elected director without opposition.

Year 1914-15 1915-16 1916-17 1917-18 1918-19 • •• • •• • •• •#• • •*. . • •• 362,000,000 1,420,000,000 2,010,000,000 2,450,000,000 2,500,000,000 £8,742,000,001)