“JUST BLUFF”

Gisborne Times, Volume LXXXIV, Issue 12869, 23 May 1936, Page 9

“JUST BLUFF”

EUROPEAN WAR SCARE. NO NATION READY TO FIGHT. OUTSIDER’S CRITICISM. P Americans are to take any lesson out of the hectic diplomatic proceedings in London and elsewhere in the last few weeks, it. should lie that, war scares in these times must he taken with plenty of salt (writes Eugene Young in the “San Francisco Chronicle”).

Three times in the last eighteen months American opinion and feelings have been all worked up over the danger of another world war, to come right away. There was the Yugo-Slav-Hiingarian crisis -provoked by the murder of King Alexander, the Italo-British clash, and finally the Rhineland incident. In each uistance there has been thundering behind the scenes and even some stage lightning, -but as those dramas ran their courses they fizzled away in dialogue, with no action. This does not mean there is no danger ol another war in Europe, hut it docs mean that; nobody is ready for it yet. Indications are that at least another five years will pass before a major conflict will conic, and much can happen in that time In bring about another postponement. Willi this assertion.-of course, must go the reservation that some upheaval somewhere might precipitate hostilities, hut with the present set-up they are not imminent.

A practical examination of the socalled Rhineland coup reveals what a lot of bluff there was about the whole proceeding. Paris and London pretended to bo surprised—as though it was some sudden tiling that had been precipitated by the explosive Hitler. "Hie fact is that Franco and Britain had been expecting just ibis sort of ihing for almost a year, and the only question'was the day ii would be done.

A Year Ago

Frnnco-British discussions of the Rhineland problem began after Germany smashed the military provisions ol the Versailles Treaty on March I s . 1935. The Paris Government at. that time asked for assurance that something would be done jointly if Hitler should fry to remilitarise the Rhineland. And Britain took the position to which it field afterwards., iliat .no military action was jusiified by tin* mere breach of a treatv.

When the Paris 1- a ilia men t ioolc v.p the. ratification of the treaty with Russia. Flitlor served plain notice that he would consider this action an abrogation of the- Locarno Treaty, and, for more than three weeks. Franco and Britain engaged in talks on what would he done when Hitler acted under this warning. So. after all. there was no coup, hut simply tile carrying out of something that had long been forecast and expected. Nobody in Europe needed to be surprised.

There were, however, high political reasons, in all the court fries concerned, why the most should be made of this incident, and a great bluff was staged by statesmen who had long I,( fore known what the outcome would have to fie.

Hitler, knowing of the failure of France to get, British assurances of unity, must have fell assured that no military action would he taken against him, and flint, the movement into the Rhineland was perfectly .safe. Yet he made of it a defiance and a great feat.

French Elections. The French Government had an election coining on. ’To present a strong front to its rival, to make the French people feel there Was 'imminent. danger across the border, was also good polities. But there was something else to be accomplished. If Britain could he sufficiently alarmed it might grant the military alliance for which Franco had so long been fishing. Jii fact, the French delegation to London finally admitted that was their real objective. Fo French troops were moved into the border forts and indication was given that action against Germany was about ‘to be taken, alone if necessary. But the Baris Government stopped short of mobilisation, which would have happened if there was any such idea, and everybody who knows the ways of diplomacy know the army movements wore a, bluff. The British Government has shown it does not expect war in the ilnmediato future, for its new preparedness programme runs over five, years." Act its members helped in spreading the alarm over the Rhineland incident. There wore objectives to be gained in doing this. In fact the skilful politicians in chai'go in London had been using war scares effectively for the last year to turn the public mind towards re-arm-ament,. They had been talking disarmament so iong that the people had become too pacific in the face of various perils to the Empire, in the Far East, the Near East, and Europe. The people had to he stirred up before they could bo relied on to back huge expenditures, to save the Empire. Russia, Italy. Poland, tlie Little Entente, and others all had reasons for appearing to make the issue grave, and they played the game until they had gotten the desired effects. i

Then all the statesmen went through the process of appearing to compromise their various • positions. And there is every reason to believe

that, most of them in the end came to what they had decided they would, do in advance. At any rate this writer predicted the night after the German movement, in a newspaper article, that they would do nothing war-like. And they did not. Prospect for Peace. In all that has been said above there is no disposition to minimise the seriousness of the situation in Europe, lint merely to show that its gravity can be exaggerated. The real fact is that every one of these crises has shown that the peoples of Europe—even those of Germany and Itaiy— do not want war. and the most, fire-eating of the leaders have to stop at menaces,and not start the military machines going. Also now that the Rhine, grievance is being settled for Germany—it will be, found in the end that the Reich will continue* o occupy this territory militarily—there is a chance for the German people to think of their home troubles. They are becoming very weary of carrying a huge army and very anxious for friendship in the world, rather’ than hostility. They are likely to become more reasonable as their homo strain increases. The same is true of Italy. The cost o' the Ethiopian adventure, has sobered both people and leaders. They will think several times before, they enter on a, wider adventure in Europe. The French in the recent crisis have refused to back a strong policy that might load to hostilities. The British have not shown any great enthusiasm for the punishment of either Italy or Germany.

Even in Japan the moderates have won as against the militarists in the composition of the new 7 Government. Premier Hi rot a long ago said there would ho. no war if he coidd help it.

Out of the elements may come a revulsion in Europe and elsewhere that’will, postpon'd war for many more years.. And meanwhile salt should be put op propaganda.