WEATHER FORECAST

Gisborne Times, Volume LXXIII, Issue 11949, 20 May 1933, Page 9

WEATHER FORECAST

MR. tSOHN MOUAT’S STUDIES

PREDICTIONS FOR 1933.

CORRECT.

DRY FROSTY WINTER EXPECTED.

The most popular and most topical subject for discussion in all countries and all climes is undoubtedly the weather. Jt is not on record, hut it is quite possible, that, when .Adam first met Eve in the Garden of Eden, he broke the ice by commenting on xbo weather. and this method of scraping acquaintance with a stranger has been in vogue ever since. Freni

time immemorial weather prophets have formed an indispensable section .j of the community. The hobby is interesting, is at times quite impressive. and above all, it costs nothing. Amateur'forecasters are to be found in all sections of life, and their observations are based on divers signs. There is the well-known person who informs all a.nd sundry that it is going to rain because Ids corn is aching, and oilier wiseacres pin fa Kb to a red sunrise or sunset, or a ring (round the moon, and predict accordingly. Still, it is a harmless hobby, alarms no one, and, as stated previously, can always he depended °n us a safe topic of conversation any-

where. With it ali, however. there are aoine people who, instead of making weather prediction an amusing hobby. treat it a 5 a branch of knowV ledge, and to that end put in hours of study. Such a one is Mr. John Mouat, of Gisborne, and his successes hare been so numerous that manj personal friends are always seeking information on this point. Mr. Alouat, in the course of a chat with a “Times'* representative, declaimed aiiy great knowledge on the subject, the. methods by- which 11 ° made ids forecasts, he said, being available to anyone. For years he had made a hobby of meteorology, and he was quite willing to pass 011 to the public any information ho had gained as the result of his study and observation. APOGEE- AMD PERIGEEIn ilie first ease, he said, infoima lion on weather forecasting has been open to the . public f° r years. all years. A daily forecast is not required by the observer, for this information is supplied in the F‘- e - s daily by the Dominion Meteorology . A\liat i s wanted is a fortnightly forecast, and tin 3 he hue*' set out. give to his friends and to those interested. ’ Perhaps, to the uninitiated, con tinued, it might ho advisable t<Mna^e i a few preliminary observations *■ astronomy. The earth goes the sun on a path n to he ei ip Picul that is, in the form of an egg. The moon goes jounc; the- cai i path which is. also known to je liptical. The furthest point tro* to earth of the modi’s path iS cUO as the apogee and,the ncares point is known as the perigee ppiu-'-

APSIDAI* DIFFERENCE. On li. theory' «*» C erns the weather, a,s if UOC!> tides, anyone' can make foiecas s ‘ the following details any studica continuod Mr. Mouat. The dut<3 the full mooli or tbo iio.w m»°» noted, Olid tlion .the into apogee point: or the perigee P°Subtract ieither these points & the full moon: or the new moon as the case may ho,' and one gjs wha' i s known as the. apsidal. difference., AY hen the apsidal difference-Is two days or two and a-half day , then the leather will remain fine AYhero however, the apsidal pom shou- s a differonco of tom *"• «”* f a-lialf up to sareu days, the weather J will be wet, increasing as the cUi- ‘ ference..in . days, becomes greater nP io seven.: Thus of seven days will mean very . heavy raim indeed Tins method can he tested by 1 X .

ANTICIPATIONS SO FAR PROVE WONDERFULLY

On the last day or tn e old year of 1932 a special article in the ‘‘Gisborne Timet-” giving th© weather forecast for the coming twelve months. The information was secured in the course of a chat by a ‘‘Times'’ representative with Mr, John Mouat, the well-known surveyor and civil engineer, of Gisborne, who has for years made a study of meteorology. The forecasts aroused keen interest at the time and, as the months have passed, by, they have proved to he almost uncannily correct, and those readers who kept the newspaper for (reference arc continually using it. Farmers, contractors arid engineers are especially (concerned with the weather, for the .success of their operations depends largoly on atmospheric conditions. Many requests have been made for copies of the “Times” in which the article was printed, the latest coming to hand two days ago from a wellknown stationholder on the East Coast but, unfortunately, copies were sold out long ago. Mr. Mouat ba s also been besieged with numerous' inquiries. The particular issue of the "Times’’ i s still in such great demand that it lias been decided to adopt what in pr-obably a unique experience iu Now Zealand journalism, and that is to reprint by special request an article which appeared four and a-half months previously. The under-mentioned article, which appeared in our issue of December 31, is therefore reproduced in the hope of satisfying uumerou s . subscribers.

anyone, but- for years he himself had found it to bo very reliable iu the way of forecasts. GEOGRAPHICAL DIFFICULTIESThe above method, ho continued, is, of course, for the whole of ibe southern hemisphere. There is, however, one further detail to be taken into consideration by the weather prophet. That, however, is simple, and: it- is the geographical area in which the observer lives. A storm is experienced in New Zealand, and it may come, for instance, from Victoria or New South AN ales. In that ease heavy rain will fall on the west coast of New Zealand, but that does not moan that the (rain '"'ill extend to tlie east coast. This is due io the intervening mountains. In the :sanie way, when a person tries to predict a storm when he is in Auckland, he has to take into account tlie great extent of warm or tidal waters flowing into tlie harbour on both sides right up to the North Cape. Tidal waters run into warm harbours, which constantly tend to reduce the temperature, and as a rule after about two hours when the tides are full, showers of rain are experienced. This may account for the large number cf rainy days experienced in Auckland.

DROUGHT .UREAS. In Mow Zealand, continued AH’. Mouat, there are special localities known as drought areas. Oue such area is a circle of about tv onti miles round Gisborne, while others are a 30-milo area around Napier and a 20-mile area around Pahaitua. Other drought areas ere in Nclaon, Alarlborough. North Canterbury, and occasionally South Canterbury and North Otago. Such areas rang# from a minimum rainfall to total absence of rainfall. LOCAL PROBLEMS. One can easily sec how I°w geographical position affects an area, Taid Air. Mouat. Take well-known places' iii Poverty Hay. Jn Otoko, for instance, it is often line day after day, and yet rain is falling at Rakauroa and Matavai a few miles further on. Then at the same lew* on the other side °f the lunge the district is again dry- People in town can often see rain on vhc AVharevatas when the weather in Gisborno is fine.

.“I can recall one very curious incident in this connection,” said AH*. Mouat. “On one occasion some years ago I was riding to Tolaga Bay in company with a necclesiastie gcntlo man now holding high office in the church. AVe came to- the last hill before Tolaga, a matter of three to four miles. AVe rode up ono side in pouring rain, hut found that the' othor side was completely dry. This is a typical instance of the effect of geographical conditions, and under such circumstances it can he realised that only the observes* with a knowledge of his own local geographical conditions is the fit person to forecast weather in that neighbourhood.” Subject to knowing these facts, -however, especially the drought area iii. Poverty Bay, anyone should bo able, by picking up the apsidial difference, to forecast the weather, and .thus benefit himself ayd the community at large.” ■ V

FORECAST FOR IpJ3. ■Air. Alouafs .fortnightly forecast for the year is. given below. The date is of new moon and full moon, The forecast is as follows:—January 11 *• Rain,/ January '2iS: Showery. February 10: A'ery heavy rain. February 24-: A ery heavy rain. . t ‘ ' • '* *

March 12: Average weather. March 26: Rain. April 10: Dry. April 24: Average weather. May 9: Dry. May 24: Dry. June 23: Dry. July 7: Dry. July 22: Wot. August 5: Dry. August 21: Heavy rain. Sept. 20: Heavy train. October 3: Heavy rain. October 19: Decreasing. Nov. 2: Wet, decreasing to dry Nov. 1G: Dry. December 30: Dry. January 31, 1934: Dry.

SUMMARY. FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. LOCAL CONDITIONS NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. January 1 to 1-1: Good holiday weather. y January 25 to- March 30: Two and a-lialf months of north-west cyclones, heavy rainfalls. April 1 to August S: G°od weather for Easter holidays. Four months’ dry, frosty weather ; anti-cyclonic. August 9 to fovember 6: Three months’ heavy rainfall, heavy snow cover in South Island, south-west cyclones. November 7 to January 31: Three mouths’ dry weather, good Christmas and New Year holidays.