THE CAL TO THE COLOURS

Greymouth Evening Star, 22 February 1917, Page 8

THE CAL TO THE COLOURS

... -SECOND DIVISION MEN. '' ;wi!en will, they be called ' , ■'■ ? \V ■ up?; . ;•: .>, DEFENCE MINISTER'S ESTIMATE ; , ."(Chriatohurch ."Prete.") • ■'.-:}-'■ Last -Wednesday a message was sent from Wellington referring to the proposals being prepared by the -JMence Department, for the .classification of . • the'second division, and it was stated 1 that Sir; James Allen said ''that it is not expected that any call need lie made on the second division for four or five months yet." . ■This pronouncement has caused nome perturbation, as it was thought' from calculations, made that a call on the second division was a. good deal fui'ther- oft' than indicated by Sir James Allen. Seen by n "Press" representative yesterday, the Acting-Prime Minister, said that the statement made by him was only approximate, but. it was based on pa.st experience, and he con* sidered that "it was fairly near the mark, and that it was probable that second division men would be/ called upon in about, six months' time. "I base my estimate on the following figures," said Sir James. "There are 84,000 men, in" round figures, in . the first.division. Of these about 18,000 have already been drawn in the ballot. From past experience we estimate that only about 25 per cent, of the balance—66,ooo men—will be available for active service. That means, in other words, that we wilt have available for active service about 16,000 men. We need approximately about 2600 per month for the Reinforcements, and *on these figures the available first division men will be used up in six months. There are j some young men coming of military age, of course, but they will H.e balm ancod, more or less, by the men who are getting over .the age, and may be practically .disregarded. The estimate of six months may not be absolutely I accurate, but I think it will be found I fairly near-the mark." in answer to further questions, Sir James Allen said that the 7o per cent , of first division men who would be unavailable for service would be put out because either they were medical, ly unfit or would be needed for tial industries of some kind or. oilier. Thi-., had been found to be about the proportion of men put oftt in the ballots already drawn. He emphasised the fact that his figures were merely approximate, but remarked that second division men who thought they had still eight or ten months to go before being called on had better re-f vise their calculations. With regard to the steps which will bo taken to round up defaulters, Sir .lame.i said:—''The public can rest • assured that the Government have this matter in hand: and that all steps will be taken to enforce the Act without unnecessary delay."

(To the Editor oi "The Press.") Sir, —Married men are naturally watcfting with some anxiety .for an indication as to when the first ca.ll is likely to be made upon the second division. The conflicting statements appearing recently have given rise to • a good deal of uncertainty. Sir James Allen is reported as having stated that a call to the second division is not likely to be-nmde for four .or ifve months, but it is not cany to lice how this estimate can be reconciled with the present state of the first division. What i.s-wanted is a reasoned statement bailed upon figures. I append' the folowing estimate , in the sincere hope that an abler pen than mine will point cut any fallacies in my statement and produce someP' thing reliable for the guidance, of the thousands interested: Number of men in Ist Division (certified 13th Nov.) 84,986 Strength of 6 Reinforcements passed into camp in Nov., Dec, Jan., Feb., March, April ... 15,000 Less previously attested for new draft, and not included in number of Ist Division certified on Nov.'. 13th 1,200 13,800 Number of Ist Division I , conscripted and gona into camp for corresponding period, say l-3rd of those balloted (17,467) 5,822 Difference being voluntary enlistments in above drafts, say, for' purpose .of this argument, all Ist Division 7.978 Add number balloted ... 17,467 Total Ist Division dealt with to completion of numbers required to go into camp in April ... 25.445 - 25,445 Number of Ist Division remaining . (j,. 09,541 Say one-third of these are fit and ! available, then,.we have 19,847, or sufficient to fill eight drafts, nearly, I going into camp from May to Decern*i bet; inclusive.' No allowance has been made, for enlistment of married men in the meantime or for rehearing of appeals and '•'combing out." These two factors sliould cause the first ■division to bust another month, covering the draft for January, 1918. .By September next 9000 new names i of men reaching military age should be adde to the. roll. The elements of indispensability and responsibility, being absent, these men sliould provide drafts for February and March, 1918. If this reckoning is correct, the first call for the second division should be made iri February, 1918, for the draft,, going to camp in- April. , No account has been taken of men ' who are reported, to have hitherto avoided registration. I believe this" estimate to be within one month of the truth. If the certified number.of reservists in tli© first division is substantially correct,, it ' would appear, at any rate, that a' much longer period than four' or 'five I months must elapse before the second;' division is called*upon. - \' Many menrwill require ■ iime to make■ their arrangements, but at the - game time it is undesirable that there; should be any premature rupture of. business connections: through' misapThat doubt and uncer- ; •taintv. may be avoided, 'some attempt; should ■ be made, to accurately gauge' 1 t).B pomtion.—Yours, ■{*»-' i BASTT.TR,