NEARLY HOPELESS

Evening Star, Issue 25225, 12 July 1944, Page 6

NEARLY HOPELESS

GERMANY'S ECONOMIC POSITION UNABLE TO MEET FULL-SCALE ALLIED ATTACKS . RUGBY, July 10. A statement pointing out the insecure economic foundation of-the German, war machine was issued on Holiday by the United States' Foreign Economic Administration. According to this statement, Germany to-day lacks the economic • foundations 'necessary to meet the full scale of Allied attacks on the. eastern, southern, and western fronts. In spite of the prodigious and partially successful effort of increased war production, the combination of the blockade and the bomber offensive and the continuing fighting in the Mediterannean and on the Russian front have left the Germans with a total supply of munitions which must decline progressively in the coming months. .Although the Germans were able to increase the production of munitions in 1943 over 1942, this increase refleeted a relative shrinkage in comparison with the United Nations' strength.

The Germans are now faced with a prospective rate of expenditure that exceeds production. The war production machine now faces a crisis which is likely to prove insuperable by the utmost effort. Until now it has succeeded in maintaining the equipment and supply of the German armed forces at the level or slightly' above that of 1941, but it, will in all probability wholly fail to maintain that position from now on, because the consumption of military supplies of all kinds will be increasingly higher, assuming that there is no let-up in the Allied offensives on ,the ground and in the air. In addition the.effect-of the bomber offensive may be at least.doubled. In the light of these facts, the existing establishment and the,reserve stocks of munitions are certain to decline to an enormous extent before next winter. This is the economic background of the picture, as drawn by the Allied military leaders, of a nearly hopeless position for the enemy, by the end of this year and indicates the certainty of defeat in 1945, if not in 1944. So far the. German war industry has been able to maintain an over-all inventory of finished weapons, and the German army to-day is in absolute terms as formidable as ever. Germany fought the war until 1944 always within the limits of her power and always with a margin for greater exertion if necessary. To-day with the victories in Italy, the landings in Normandy, and the new Russian attacks, almost all the margins aregone. The blockade, the bomber offensive, and the last two years of fighting set limits to the growth of German strength', but. they must be continued to keep these limits at the present levels. \ Furthermore, the statement adds, the capacity of the Germans for inventing and producing new weapons, such as the flying bombs, should not be entirely disregarded. At the same' time the: unfettered growth of the Allied strength has gone on until the basis has>■ been provided for an overall scale of attack too great to be met: