POPULATION FORECAST.

Evening Star, Issue 25168, 6 May 1944, Page 4

POPULATION FORECAST.

In a recent address Mr A. A. Eerie, United States Assistant Secretary of State, made some interesting continents on the changes in world population that are likely to occur in the next twentyfive years. Mr Berle predicted that in our lifetime the United States will have stabilised, Western Europe will have stood still—if, indeed, it has not actually begun to decline—Soviet Russia will be headed for a considerably greater population, which in time will outnumber all of Western Europe combined. Particularising, Mr Berle estimated that the United States, which in 1940 had a population of J 35 millions, might increase at a much slower rate; Great Britain, with about 46 millions, would drop to 42 millions, and probably stop there; Germany, with (>9 millions, would probably drop to 64 millions, and gradually diminish; France, with 41 millions, would probably fall to 37 millions. _ The especially interesting prediction is made that Soviet Russia, with a population of 17fi millions in 1940, would rise to 222 millions, and probably increase steadily for a long time. This suggestion is not new. but it emphasises the prominent part that Russia is likely to play in world affairs in the future, for in that country there have been striking developments in social experiments and in the sciences and arts. Education has been placed much in the forefront. Referring 1o Latin America, Mr Berle said that Brazil had doubled her population in less than a quarter of a century, and he expressed the belief that in the next generation this State will not be merely a great South American country, but a world Power'if she so chooses. Brazil, 'because of her immense productive capacity, is bound to see her population rapidly increase by the addition of an influx of people from outside her borders, stimulated by the investment of foreign capital and the creation of great enterprises. The movements are equally striking in India, China, and the surrounding States, but the figures, though dramatic, are, in Mr Berlo's opinion, less important than the probability that these nations will have learnt in far greater degrees the Western arts of industrialisation, and possibly also of war. For more than a century Western Europe and the Americans have held a substantial monopoly in the developments of modern science, modern industries, and transport. With that monopoly they were dominant throughout the world. That monopoly is now passing. Discussing the world problems of the future, Mr Berle said: " We are seeing the fate of structures built on naked force. Hitler's new Europe, which was to last a thousand years, is crashing in ruins—deadly evidence tlinfc design of world determination by a race or Power is condemned to utter failure. The only permanent foundation is that of common consent and of general moral acceptance." When all the factors are considered, it is clear that the hope of the world lies in common international action establishing permanent peace. .