The Evening Star WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1935. THE WORLD’S NAVIES.

Evening Star, Issue 22209, 11 December 1935, Page 10

The Evening Star WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1935. THE WORLD’S NAVIES.

In contrast to other great international conferences that have been held during the last fifteen years, the opening proceedings at the gathering in London of representatives of five naval Powers were subdued in tone. As a result of experience,' confidence of substantial aoliievement has given way to hope that something at least will be gained. The most that Mr Baldwin expects is that the , countries concerned will yield a little of their maximum demands for the general good and evolve an agreement reducing the total tonnage of naval armaments, thus adding to the general sense of world security, Britain’s Prime Minister, it will he noted, directed his remarks not'so much to the broad- questions involved as to one particular aspect of naval operations—unrestricted submarine warfare, in future. On this point there is reason to believe that a measure of agreement may be achieved. A holiday in naval construction was provided by the Washington Treaty of 1921, which set age limits, ranging from twelve to twenty years, for various types of vessels then existing, within which they were not to be renewed. The holiday was extended by .the Treaty of London, which expires at the end , of 1936. Mr Hector Bywater, a recognised authority, puts the prospects plainly in his latest book, ‘ A Searchlight On the Navy.’ He indicates the heavy cost that will be involved if the conference fails. Between the years 1936 and 1942 no fewer than 844 men-of-war belonging to the five principal Powers will complete their span of effective-life. If they are all replaced no Power will necessarily be a fraction stronger in comparison with others than it is at present. But the total cost of replacing them—capital ships, cruisers, destroyers, and submarines—is estimated at 831 million pounds. Thus the armament expenditure that was prohibited in 1921 will not have been saved; it will only have been postponed. Problems of the Pacific are the chief obstacles to agreement. ‘Japan desires to be supreme in this area, and her naval plans are laid with that end in view. When she denounced the Washington Treaty she declared that the word “ ratio ” was offensive to her, and insisted that the other Powers grant her an equality in defence “ in principle-” Since then Japan has never ceased to assert that the 5-5-3 ratio, as provided at Washington, must end. The implication of this theory is that she shall be granted a weight of defensive ships which would give her absolute and unchallenged control in bar Eastern waters. This camnot he disputed, for hor navy would be concentrated in this area, while the main naval forces of Britain and America would be thousands of miles away. Further, in

considering limitation, Japan demands, according to Professor Nagano’s • remarks at the opening of the present conference, abolition or drastic reduc•tion in the classes of ships that would be of the greatest service to the two Powers mentioned in the case of conflict in the Far East. Japan’s policy in the matter of submarines is opposed to the Anglo-American proposals regarding this method of warfare, but it has been suggested that she might make concessions on this point provided she got ‘her way on others of greater importance to her plans. The United States is fully awake to the dangers' that threaten her trade in the Far East. Congress passed the Vinson Bill, designed to bring the American fleet up to. the total permitted under the Washington and London agx-eements, and a building programme is now in progress, which includes the construction of a 35,000-ton battleship.. The nearest American naval base to the Far East ‘is Hawaii, 3,400 miles from Manila. It therefore follows that, the American fleet must consist. of the larger types of battleship, with ,abundant fuel capacity, in order that they may be able to keep the sea. Factors that may influence Japan to abate some of her demands are the determination of the United States, if nothing comes of the conference, to pursue a vigorous building policy, an apparently substantial measure of Anglo-American agreement, and the growing opposition of the civif members of the Japanese Cabinet to the financial demands of the army and navy. It cannot be said that the conference opens with encouraging prospects. America' is deeply ’ concerned about her trade in the distant Far East, and Britain has vast and varied interests to protect, while Japan, inscrutable, subtle, and determined, is surrounded with' many obvious advantages. In the circumstances it is hardly likely that she will be prepared to concede much to advance the cause of naval disarmament. ,