The Evening Star FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 1934. FRANCE’S DIFFICULTIES.

Evening Star, Issue 21819, 7 September 1934, Page 6

The Evening Star FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 1934. FRANCE’S DIFFICULTIES.

Phance is being warned by her Minister of Labour to expect a bad winter because of unemployment. Latterly matters have not being going well with that country, either politically or economically, and a symptom of it was the Paris riots in February. During the post-war years after Franco had devalued her currency (but stabilised it on a gold basis at a far lower level) and had immensely scaled down her war debts (with England’s indulgence but against American protests) she seemed to lead a charmed life as compared with other countries. The restoration of devastated areas and the complete modernisation of industrial plants which tho opportunity afforded provided employment in excess of the available man power, while the fortification of her northern frontier was another heavy item of special expenditure. From the time England went off gold in 1931 conditions in France began to change for the worse, and there has been an acceleration, since America devalued her dollar, which has become mdre marked since the recent development of a currency contest between pound and dollar. First the foreign labour, chiefly Italian, which had been introduced on a big scale, was repatriated, and latterly unemployment among the native-born has been spreading, while the cost of living, largely due to the effort to be self-supporting, has been rising. In all countries there has been a growing disproportion between production and consumption, but it is particularly marked in France. As an instancy, whereas before the war not 10 per cent, of the French iron and steel output was exported, on her present capacity, to produce 40 per cent, of the output must be sold abroad. Apart from world oversupply this would be particularly difficult matter for France, as she is a country which led the way in closing her doors on imports (except of raw materials for manufacture), oblivious of the truth of the adage that tho nation that will not buy neither can it sell. The decline of French exports is indicated in a report by Sir Robert Cahill, British Commercial Counsellor in Paris, covering'the period 1928-34. Naturally his • report deals chiefly with FrancoBritish trade. Apart from the period 1915-20, when the wnr and its after effects disturbed normal trading relations, the glance of trade between the two countries from 1871 to 1930 was favourable to France, and about the beginning of tho century the position was that England bought from France double what France bought from England. As recently as 1930 Britain’s purchases were in a ratio of nearly 3 to 2 of her sales to France, But in 1932 and 1933 the balance of trade has swung in favour of Britain. This is a very important matter to France, because until 1932 Britain was the principal customer of .France, whereas in that year she fell to third place and in 1933 to fourth place as a purchaser of French goods. The reasons for this change are the new British Customs duties, the higher levels of French prices expressed in sterling, and economising by tho British consumer on those luxury goods for which France has made an almost exclusive name—such as fine clothing, jewellery, perfumes, wines, etc. Moreover, the “ invisible exports ” France derived from the tourist traffic—customers coming from abroad to her shores to spend, instead of buying from a distance as is the case with visible exports—have undergone a remarkable shrinkage in the past few years. The main, but not the only, cause of this failure of Paris to attract is doubtless ihe reduced incomes of the formerly

well to do in many countries, notably America. Sir Robert Cahill can envisage no return of live “ boundless prosperity ” which prevailed in Prance in 1928-30, due to a co-operation of temporary causes unlikely to recur together. Politically France is in a most disturbed state. The “ gold bloc ” countries of Europe, of which France is the leader, are expected by English financial commentators to be forced shortly to consider devaluation, and some of those writers go so far as to say that it seems likely that the decision to devalue will be taken in the streets, where deflation is generally fought out. In Paris “ The Street ”is composed of the “ Action Frahcaise,” the Jeunesses Patriots, the Solidaritie Francaisc, the Croix de Feu, and a part of the National Federation of Ex-servicemen. It was “ The Street ” which forced Daladier out of office in February after street rioting, in spite of his large parliamentary majority, and it is said to be now marking time for another coup. A possible or probable leader is Colonel de la Rocque, head of the Croix de Feu, a former member of Foch’s General Staff, who claims a right to a say in public affairs and to save France from political chaos and ' internal enemies, whom he designates as the politicians, the Socialists, and the Communists. His organisation comprises the more distinguished ex-servicemen and their descendants. They deny being Fascists, but declare “The Enemy” to be Socialists and Communists, -who, latterly drawn together, at least temporarily, have formed a United AntiFascist Front, and demonstrate in Paris streets. Many prominent Socialists doubt the wisdom of the alliance with the Communists, fearing the reactions of the hundreds of thousands of farmers in Southern Franco who have previously voted Socialist. Once again there is reason to believe —and hope—that Paris is not France. Provincial France is looking with profound suspicion at “ Fascist ” Paris. A moral reform in .France’s political life is badly needed.