CANDIDATES5 CHANCES

Evening Star, Issue 18139, 1 December 1922, Page 1

CANDIDATES 5 CHANCES

NEXT WEEK'S PROBABILITIES DISCUSSED. SOME DOUBTFUL SEATS. (From Our Speciad Corrrppokdekt.] WESTLAND. Tho contest for Westland m creating keen interest and great excitement on the Coast. The fact that there are four candidates —viz., Messrs Scddon (Libera!), J. D. lynch {lndependent- Reformer), O’Brien (Labor), and S tec re (Reform) has confused tho Issues considerably; nevertheless there are said to be two or three salient features. Mr Lvnch, -who came into the contest later, has introduced a unique form of electioneering, Ho Jnw i devoted much of his time to a systematic canvass, and host visited huts, * hamlets, saw-mills, and out-of-the-way places seldom visited by the ordinary candidates. Ho lias propounded » purely W osl Coast policy, and it returned will prove not ye much n representative of Westland as of tho whole West Coast, By some it i« considered that Mr beddou's chances of re-election have completely faded awav. Mr Si-core is very popular, and is bound to poll, a heavy vole. Ho is a factor that undoubtedly must be taken into consideration. Mr O’ilrion, who represents extreme Labor, has captured a largo proportion of tho Labor vote, and sumo people until the last few days wc-.ro of opinion that the complications arising iron), so many contestants might put him at the top of the poll; but the unexpected- developments iu connection with Mr Lynch's candidature have reduced Mr O'Brien’s chance. Though Labor polled 1 exceedingly high three years ago, it must be- borne in mind that, owing to the alterations in tho boundaries of tho electorate 500 norking-oluss votes have been cut out. Despite reports to the contrary, the bulk of opinion on. the Coast inclines to Mr H. E. Holland having a, fairly easy win in Duller. FROM Mil.''ON ridl lIIWAIUIS. Taking tho seaf.-t from Nelson down to tho Waiialii. present indications do not point to many changes, unless, of coarse, there is a big swing round against the Government, and there is no justification whatever for anticipating any (such happening. Mr Almore can be regarded as rale for the. Kelson scat. Ho is a clcve.r campaigner, and is not likely te> bo extended, although Mr Gilbert, the Reform candidate, will poll well. Latest advices from Blenheim arc lliat a battle royal is raging lor the Wan an seat. Mr AY. d. Girling, a. popular young Blenheim business man, has made great headway in the last few days, and Mr Mos-j-ey’s visit on Tuesday may possibly prove to have turned the scale m his favor. Everything points to a vorv el ire finish, witli'a slight margin ol prefctcuwi for Mr M'Callmn. 1 . , Huninui can be regarded as a. finny easy win for Mr 11. \\. I'orbc!-. who has rather weak opj-orition in Mr c. Andrew (the Reform candidate). A good deal of interest attaches to tho contest iov Kaiapoi. Mr R. D- Mai tin, tho Independent Labor candidate, cun bo disregarded. Mr David Jones will probnblv°bo re-clecied, although the old campaigner, tho Hon. Ik Jjuddo, wdl pull very solid to. , , •Mr L. M. Jsil-t. with a strong Liberal vote and a section of Reform vote behind him. should win Christchurch North, but the chances of the Labor candidate, Rev. J. X. Archer, cannot bo held m light estimation. If Mr G. K- Andrews, tho Independent Reform candidate,, polls as well as some die-hard Re tenners expect him to do, ho must take a, solid block 0,. votes from Mr Isitt, in which case Hie uuexpected iti the return of the La-uor ccuulidaio might happen. In this contest there are many undercurrents, and it might possibly provide one of the great surprises of Hie 1922 election.; but the weight of opinion is in favor of Mr isitt having a seat in the next Parliament. There is an impression, in sumo quarters (it is hard to trace its source) that, the irrepressible Dr Thacker will meet las Waterloo in -Christchurch Last next week at tho hands of tho Labor la-rtys nominee. CT H. T. Armstrong No doubt the doctor has lost some caste lately; but it is hard to find solid reasons so far as they appear on tho surface for preferring Mr' Armstrong’s chances. Christchurch Fad is not Reform stronghold, and the party’s Candida, to, Mi W. R. Do vt remix carries few guns. Mr E. J. Howard, Labor, is generally regarded as certain, of re-election. For Christchurch South tho opposition to him is not- formidable, although Mr If. G, Ell. ex-M.P., may poll fairly well Ricea-rton may send -Mr G. \\nly (Liberal) hack to he Homo. The Reform candidate, Mr 11. X id. Kyle. Gins wellknown vetennaiy surgeon, will poll c.xtremeb’ well, and should boat J. A. MA'iilimigh, of Arbitration Court Lime. The aimrwlion is made by Mr Witty’s supporters that if M r Kyle polls as strongly as Reformers expect him to do it will not ensure his return, but will give ibe seat- to Mr M‘Gul!ough. Probably Avon, provides the most interesting light- in Canterbury, LacJi -4' the four candidates—Mr Sullivan (Labor), Colonel Loach (Reform), Mm Hoibert (Independent), and the Hon. G. IV Imsrod (Liberal)-—lias a substantial jollowong, and anything might happen. On paper Mr Ruffiril looks to Jiave tho best churno Of' success; but if tho Reformers vote solidly for Colonel Loach ho must bo very dangerous. Most of Mis Herbert s votes would in her absence from tho contest go to Mr Sullivan, whoso prospects of success in the peculiar mrcumatauctb do not look too bright. Air R. Macartney /Reform) is meeting with a grout deal of encouragement all over tho Lyttelton o-c-c----torate, but he has a ted task to counteract tho solid Labor support Mr M'Combs will secure in Lyttelton and Wools ton, and he will probably just miss the bn.-:. i Reports have been current during too last day or two that tho progress being mado by Mr J. C, Free (Li teal -Labor) is causing IToaloii b d •-mod deal of anxiety in Ellesmere. Tho Defence Minister -has never lute a very })i ,-r inarMn of votes, but it vrill probabaV ho largo* enough next week to rccuro hw return, , The Hon. W. Xo.nvortiiy ia« a very safe seat in Ashburton, and evorvthiug points to Mr F. J. Hol-1 eaten (Reform) brin t tlm new member for Timaru, although Mr Vinncll (Labor) will poll a It is generally expected fiat Mr T. U. Burnett (Tcmuka) and Mr J. B.itohou-cr (Waitald) will retain these fecats fur the CoveTnmont. , Mr T. H. Langford, tho Liberal-Labor candidate for Tdmuka-, is conducting a very vigorous campaign, but Mr Burnett is understood to bo solidly entrenched, THE SOUTHLAND SEATS. As tho day of election d aws near the inu-reat in the contest for the live Southland sen-to is Incoming very keen, ruid if tho weather is fine next ’i.liuraday it iu jw«-icip<ited thoro will bo heavier polling thrin was the case three years ogo. No doubt the activities of tho- parties in tho Ikie-nsing question wdl considerably n.-,s;-it in securing heavy voting, and, if nil re-ji-n'i.s are true. h-i:e a-rmngemcuits »r.«Ae So f 11!- |-■ ; T,-., nf H r- Ce!ili::--,OT.m J’.i.rly ;;n.i-ais a AoU-Wliu- ttbi-'N

"ill bring to tho polling booths many of those who in former deletion* have Med to record their votes, either in the electoral or licensing ballots, —Tie Invercargill Seat.--

The lion. J. A. Hamm, tJwEiUing member, will he opposed by Mr H. J. Farrant. t.hc official Labor candidate, and Mr .fames Armstead, who lias been selected a-t the el even til .hour as the Reform Party's nominee. Mr .Hamm, as usual, was very dilatory in commencing his campaign, and is now working at a break-neck pace to make up -for lost. time. He has had good meetings, but there is a feeling amongst, the electors that the tame is ripe for * rhange, mid Hie is certainlr going to have (ho fight of .his life to retain the eon'.. Last election he polled 4.758 votes (o t f.» Labor candidate's f.I. K. A roller) 3.56.) in a. straight-out figlft, and this time r. is thought that many of his supporters win he found amOngst those supporting Messrs Panrant and Armstead. The butter .is also the accepted candidate of the P.P.A., ami. rather ■iinospocted.ly, iho Prohibition Party's man ; but the latter will not he hv any means a solid vole. He i-- a

t.-o licit or by profession, and saw scene service in. the Great H hpoaking .*' theatre in Invercargill on Monday right, he was given a good .bearingyby a fin -ra audience, htrfc appeared at a disadvan-l.ic<’, aa Jic rend bis speech. At question tin..’ ho appeared to Ibotter advantage, hut until a few days ago was quite unknown in public lifo'in Iravcimrgal], and his chances are not as good as cither of bis opponent 's. “ Horlhy ” Famuit, a printer by tra<K mid since the war In charge of Sotilbland's war •funds, is widely and popularly known in the town. Ins dbances jh belter, and, though now blindly accepting (.he policy of Mr Holland, his intimate friends say that he is not an extremist, at heart. With so many o! hie odd supporters tiring of Sir Hainan, it i« anticipated that Mr Fan-ant will receive most of those roles, and between the two he may slip in; hut I prefer the late member Is chance of retaining the seat. —Awarua.— Mr J. R. Hamilton, who beat Sir J. (5, Ward by 3,R$ to 2,407 last election, is being opposed by Mr P. Do La PerreUc, proprietor of the Winten * Record,’ and a; member of the 'Southland Education Board. The latter is a fluent speaker, and opened his campaign well, but lately he has been drawn rather badly at question time in his speeches, and became rather personal in bis attacks upon his opponent which has cost bam many supporters. He will probably have majorities id. Bluff Mid Wafldwi, and nearly hold liis own at Wiuton, the three largest populated districts in bis electorate j but in the country districts the sitting member will score heavily, and probably win wilhl a. majority larger than he had last year with the aid of the P.P.A, and Proiiibilitoii Party’s assistance. The third candidate, Mr Norman M‘lntyre, who calls himself tho “Co-operative ■candidate,” will not, seriously affect (ho issue, and probably repeat " bit* 1919 porformanee in the Main,mV. contest by forfeiting his deposit. —Wall3.cc. — ]n this electorate Messrs Adam Hamilton and .1. C. Thomson are fighting their battle of three years .ago over again. At that poll Mr Hamilton ’won by a small, margin of forty-three votes. This time Mr Thomson is putting up a better fight, and, it is expected that he will win by a. comfortable majority if no slip is made in the meantime. His party is very confident that, ho will win, and docs not consider tho figures of last poll represented tho inm feeling of the electorate, as on that occasion its candidate was not able to pn! up (he good fight he is doing (bis time. —Alataum.— The Horn G. J, Anderson is opposed by Air D. APDougall, whom he beat last election by nearly 1,300 votes, and though Iris opponent is making a very close canvass of the electorate he is likely to win again by a good majority. Mr Anderson, has bad such, good meetings everywhere that In's return looks to bo the safest seal in Southland for ilia Government. —Wakatipu.— Mr J. Horn, who beat Air It. Scott by 800 votes in a triangular contest three yearn ago, meets Air James Ritchie in a straightout fight on tiiis occasion, and from reports in tho western and southern portions of that electorate Ids chances are the better of tho two. He is also reported from Queenstown to bo likely to top the poll at the booths round .about there.