CHINA DISRUPTED

Evening Star, Issue 18050, 18 August 1922, Page 6

CHINA DISRUPTED

ANCIENT ANTAGONISMS. A JAPANESE VIEW. The Me Lord WoLseley_ once expressed ■o me his conviction that in certain forms of warfare the most elementary prudence demanded that all wires and cables should, as soon as possible, be cut and kept cut (writes Per rival London in a despatch to the London 'Daily Telegraph’). As the present struggle in Chna is a conspicuous example of the kind) of warfare to which he was referring, it may he useful to record from this side of the sea one aspect of the war. I refer to the grave importance which. Japan attaches—and very naturally attaches—to the issue of the conflict. Not only is she more directly and deeply affected by the course of events In China than any other State, but if, as )e€ms inevitable, history is about to repeat Kself, it is clear that she must play no jecondary part in any measures that the Ureot' Powers may decide upon in defence pi their common interests in the Farthest

, I have therefore been at some pains to ascertain the view taken here as to the probable results of this clearing up by recourse to arms of the intolerable tension in her neighbor’s territory. ' The universal opinion is that none of the leaders engaged in the struggle possesses qualities which could ensure even temporary unity and order in China. Here, in Japanese eyes, is the root of the matter. Whatever the immediate result of the fighting, antagonism between North and! South must jontimxe unabated until there comes to the

rescue some far greater personality than has yet made his appearance upon the Celestial stage. This antagonism is of no recent growth. It has existed! for generations, and) was only kept in some sort of restraint because of the almost divine position conceded by all parties to the throne. This was not a result of mere superstition ; it was recognised by political leaders as the sole means of preserving the unity of China, and when Imperial dignity was swept away there were many, even in the most radical camp, who foresaw the troubles which have beset the Empire from that day to this. Even in recent rapprochements the Japanese have seen but the certainty of even greater chaos than now exists. I refer chiefly to the curious alliance between Sun Yat Sen andl Chang Tso lln. To put the matter roughly, but not inaccurately, it is believed! in Japan that if on the one hand Manchuria and Canton succeed in imposing a new regime from Peking, that success can lead to nothing but the prompt dissolution of a wholly unnatural partnership and the revival in a

more acute form than ever of the dislike i, that the two parties have always enter- • tainedi for each other. If, on the other - hand, Wu Pei-fu and Tsao-Kun succeed in heating off the Manchurian forces, their "only hope of securing even temporary ascendancy in China is by force and by continuing to fan that hatred by every means in their power. In neither case is more than a momentary peace possible. Already it is clear to Japan that all talk about the restoration of a unified China is a mere blind to cloak personal ambition.' Indeed, this ideal of unity, which has been industriously used to throw dust in the eyes of the Great Powers, has become the prime source of a trouble that bids fair to be chronic. China is not , united. If the principle of >elf-determination had been the potent force in the past that it has become since ihe Paris Conference,- China would have iplit up long ago, and many here do not blind themselves to the fact that nothing except a dead tradition still links each section of China to other sections, with which it has neither blood kinship, nor common language, nor identity of interest to justify its union. If, as is believed hare, the present strife is probably a preliminary to the final dissolution of the Chines© Empire, it can be imagined with what keen interest each step in ■he struggle is watched in Toldo. A Word is required here about the vital change that has taken place in Japan’s own position in China. It is generally believed that we aro on the verge of a recrudescence of a bitter anti-foreign movement throughout the whole of China. Western students of the situation, however, are inclined to forget one important consideration. Events of the last twenty years have combined to cause the Japanese to be regarded as foreigners in China to an extent that has never before characterised this antagonism. It may, of course, bo said that Japan is chiefly responsible for this change; it is probably true that the policy of vigorous penetration associated with the name of Kato—jmd now, he it remembered, ,entirely disowned by his countrymen—was the laet straw. But a deeper and mnro natural cause is the simple fact that Japan’s accession to the rank of a Great Power at the council board- of the civilised world has in itself created profound mistrust on the mainland opposite. But, whatever the real source of this didike, it fs clear that it will ho no inconsiderable factor in the new aspect of the ancient problem with which tho, world is once more called upon to deal. As to the fluctuating fortunes of Wu Pei-Fu and _Cha ; n-g Tso-Lin, Japan! expresses no opinion. Sho brashes aside tho late, stirrakhing as a mere affair of outposts. But she dees not mistake the real importance of the fact that an appeal has at last been made to arms in circumstances which render it almost impossible that they shall be laid down again for many months, however skilfully on© leader or tihe other may have cleared his front for the time being. Neither party can a s yet -act at any distance from its base, and, M was said pregnantly to me by a Japanese; “Europeans seem to forget that there . h* po roads ia China.”