THE OUTLOOK

Evening Star, Issue 17227, 17 December 1919, Page 2

THE OUTLOOK

WHAT OUR SPECIALS SAT. SIR JOSEPH WARD OPTIMISTIC. WELLINGTON' ’ . 1 Indications on the eve of the poll in the Wellington, district point to Labor losing one seat to an Independent, and Reform possibly losing its member (Mr P’ Luke) for Wellington North; other■wise the general impression is that there ■will be no revolutionary change in the representation. There is no doubting public interest in the contest, and large polls are anticipated. If the contest had occurred several ninths ago Official Labor might have made a greater impression at the ballot box under the impulse of strong resentment against the Government’s failure to keep down the Cost of Living; but election: audiences have shown appreciation. of the fact that the problem is hot altogether under the con tin 1 of anv Government, although Laborites make a strong point of the high Cost of Living it is not the chief deciding factor between -the candidates,. Official Labor’s war record has been a severe handicap to its candidates, especially when one of them, as in the case of Wellington South, has been faced- with a soldier opponent. Its intolerant attitude towards rival candidates-, indicated by disturbances at meetings, is another factor which has operated in "favor of the Liberals and the Reformers. Thus I anticipate that the polling will show no startling increase in the Official Labor .vote. Though Air Peter Fraser should retain Wellington Central, he is certain to lose! his Wellington South colleague, Mr R. Semple, who will bo beaten by Colonel -Mitchell. Labor is confident of victory for Mr L. 'A. Monteith, but I fancy Dr Newman’s (Reform, late member) chances best in the jhree-cornered fight in Wellington East. The situation in Wellington North suggests close running among all three candidates. If anything, Mr J. P. Luke (member in the late Parliament) and Air H. 0. Browne (his Liberal opponent) have advantages over Mr Read" (Labor). The Civil Service vote seems strongly Liberal in this election, and should give Mr Browne a sufficient lead to score a Liberal victory. Wellington Suburbs has provided a good fight between Air R. A. Wright (Reform) and Mr D. Sloane (Liberal), who will poll -well, but is 'hardly likely to unseat the old- member with his strong Prohibition backing. Mr T. M. Wilford is gaining support even from Reformers, who hold that the Hutt seat should not have been made a possibility for Extreme Labor by a- contest against the sitting Liberal, therefore Mr “Tom” should win by a fair majority, especially aa he will get" support from a large number of Moderate Laborites in the electorate. Wellington, taken asi a. whole, has been regarded as safe for “the trade.” There has been surprisingly little public indication of the state of feeling on- the Licensing Question. State Control has not been discussed as if this issue was being taken as a serious alternative to Prohibition, and my inclination is to propresy another lead for straight-out Continuance, taking. the four city seats as, a whole. Air Massey and Sir Joseph W T ard both intend to return to Wellington to hear the election results. TARANAKI. Interest in the election contests in the Taranaki district has been very keen for some weeks past, the representatives of the Liberal Party putting up such a strenuous fight as to cause consternation ,in the ranks of the Reformers; and- in ' their realisation that the seats would likely be wrested from their grasp they have been struggling desperately. But, even so, , it appears extremely likely that the Egmont, Patea, and Stratford seats will pass into the hands of the Liberal Party. This {has been clearly indicated in the" strong support that has been given the nominees of the Democratic Party, and by the receptions accorded Sir Joseph Ward. In referring to the general local situation last night, Sir Joseph stated that he had little doubt that Mr {Masters (Stratford) would defeat the Hon. J. B. Hine, that -Mr Astbury (Egmont) would worst Mr Hawkin, and that Air Morrison would be . victorious in bis contest (Patea) with Air , Powdrell. , In the latter electorate the Reformers had secured the withdrawal of ■Mr,Pearce, the late member, but from information he (Sir Joseph) had received the eleventh-hour move by his opponents might act as a boomerang. The situation; continued the Liberal Leader, was remarkably bright, and was indicative of that which Was at present perva'ding the Dominion. The result would be the return of the’ Liberal Party as the next Government.