POST-WAR PROBLEMS.

Evening Star, Issue 16910, 6 December 1918, Page 8

POST-WAR PROBLEMS.

A BANKER'S VIHSWS. In the coTHSBQ of his »ddr<e*» ©t tho half-ywwhr meeting of the Bank of New Zealand shareholders held at Wellington to-day. llx Harold Beaachamp, chairman of directors, said : Following the close of tha war comes the difficult task of aarranging the terms of peace. In tliia collection it is gratifying to note that tho representatives of the Dominion will have seats at the Peace Conference. One of the outstanding questions for Australasia is of course the destiny of the German Colonics in the Pacific. These cannot, and must not, bo returned to Germany to become in the future bases for submarines and aircraft, and therefore a menace to tho peaceful development of the British Dominions in these seas. There are of course other matters of great moment in which w© are interested, that aro bound to be discussed at the Peace Conference! but the determination of the disposal of the German Colonies in the Pacific is, to us, a very important question. Australian and New Zealand _ statesmen are, happily, unanimous on this point. I do not anticipate any immediate variation in the prosperity that this Dominion has enjoyed during the four yea-re of war. There- will probably be for some time a pressing demand for our foodstuffs and raw materials. It is practically assured that tic Imperial authorities' will take the output of wool for a period of twelve months from Juno following the declaration of peace; and arrangement* have now b#e.n concluded with them to take our output of cheese and butter for this and the following season, at satisfactory prices. Tins places the wool and dairying industries unon an assured footing for a considerable, period. As for meat", however, which bulks so largely in our experts, the present term of the com man deer is for only three months after termination of the war. If this lv> not altered, it i" '■'"•uoeivable that in March or April ne-:t t!>" refrigerated stoves will he full to the doors, and tra'o-p-rrtaiion ;>nd realisation of the imvit i: 1 stare would prohnNy ■ ■<- cupv not less than months. It is. I ooo? ; d<:r. Idghlv beneficial t> New Zea!n"d that these" forward contracts have been mad? v-ith the Imperial Government villi regard to wool and da'rv produce: and in my opinion it would he t" th" -d vantage of the Dominion if the •n-ioeird--- were also extor.dH to meat. The -var prosperity d Khe Pominiou h:;s h'eo Hr.:-dy do-. t> the one-rations in nrndnce l.y i>o- Tmnerial Government: and tint:', .-.f coy r'f-\ normal l-.usinexs improve* considerably, the advantages of a rootooi -.nee of these operations are to mv mir.d o'oviou-. Ther-N is n-w in 'eokUto:v .-.l frozen meat idone a quiddity conal to ahout ■",";, million CO'H f roi'-ht ••'".vses : i I: - "- ■>. e

also considerable quantities of ehee-.e 'oid butter and a h'.rt;e ninouut of wo-el. In Addition, there ;.':> W->..vy of t'dlov.-, pelts, hemp, and other prodi"-!-. which have not been commandeered by the Oovenunent. The pre-eot season, 'for I hn- > already given, is a hnckwar:! one. so that not mn.-h if the current vr'ar's viehl lias vet '_o't into store. It must he bro- in mind that nil tlie Irnperiallv-reipiisitioned pivduc--will have to he r.'ted in oriority to purchases: on nrivnt-' account: and as British commandeer of shipping will probablv pot be relaxed for some .considerable time, it is clear that private pm-cha-ors would in that case have to take heavy risks. Jr. is easy to understand that if tl>- i-iilh of next season's meat ha.~ to be he'.l in the refrigerated stores pending a. market, being found for it, a difficult, ajid in some cases, unsatisfactory, situation would arise. The' scarcitv of tonnage is likely to continue—indeed 's certain io continue—for several months, notwithstanding the fact that a fair amount v>f shipping will be released through there hj. hi,- no longer any necessity to trai'spott munitions and men. Tt may not be out or plne'e to remind fanners and others who have accused the sliriov.-nfr.s of exnloiting the public, and "■ "profiteering, th.at all .-haps on the British were rcpr'sitiened during the early part of 1917 at Blue Book rates, these rat---s being ao-

proximately one-third cf those then obtainable in the open market. The di '- ference between th° Blue Book rates and those now- current benefit-. n--t the shipowners, but the Imperial Government. So lone; as th? Brl + >t-, ,->,ntborities continue their control of shipping, so long will it be difficult t> know just what number of ve-ssels will he available for our produce trade.

It is, moreover, of utmost importance to ns that the income from the sale of produce should he as large during the next two years as it is this year, to enable us to r. eet our obligations in the meantime, whilst we are making provision for tho readjustment of our affairs to meet the changed conditiens. Had we been able to foxvtell a, year atro ju-st exactly when the war would end we could have made some preparation to mc-?t 'he situation; but tho end has come srddeulv, and the post-war problems have vet to be grappled with.

One- great burden thnt the war has forced tipon ns : s a huge Public Debt. The Minister of Finance has v?p?at-f-dly stated, since his return from England, that t-he Public Debt is about Tim at- 4-jr per cent means an interest- bill of £9,000,000 per- pnmim, or, «iy, £750.000 i o. month; and there -will W. in addition, tho heavy pension bill to mcr.t. The*? twe items Will absorb about £II,OOO,CCO to £12.000,000 a year. This is a very heavy lead for tho civntry to carry, and it necessarily means that taxation "must for some time bo heavy. There is, however, onefeature about the Debt that, redounds to tho credit of the people A laTg" proportion of tho money required for the proee-er.t-iori of the war was obtained within New Zealand. It was recently stated off! cially that the amount of the war loans raised in the Dominion was equal to .about £4O per head of the population—a truly iragniflcent foMev?ment. The debt due to (Treat Britain from the Allies on August 1 was £1.402,000,000, and from the. Dominions £208,500.000 ; and both amor.i U would be considerably larger now. It was officially stated in tho House of Commons that the National \W Debt on Sn>ieaibcr 30 last amounted to £6,875.000,000; and there is the recent credit vote to be added, which would bring tho total to £7.575.000.000. It will probably take another £500,000,000 to repatriate the troops and for rest-oration, compensation, etc.. which would make the-Na-tional War Debt .about £B,OCO,CCO.CCO. Of tho amount dtio to Britain from- the Allies and Dominions. £L.OCO.OCO.COO is regarded as good, and this would leave the Debt at £7,000.000,000. The interest bill would probably total £515,000.000, whieh, with the amount required for normal peace expenditure, would mean raising a, revenue of £600,000.000—0r thro,- times the i'monnt raised in the peace year of 1913-14. The people- in Britain will be unable to indulge, in any extravagances, and will be nnablo to afford any fancy prices for foodstuffs or for anything else ; and this state of affairs is likely to continue for some time. But t-htre "will. T anticipate, be no sharp or sudden decline in the prices ojf our produce or, en the otjier hand, of the commodities we impoit. As regards imports, there is more likely to be an upward rat-Tver than a downward tondency, for a time at least, in the cost of commodities that a-- imported into this country. There is a world-wide shortage of standard goods and of raw materials, and these cannot be produced in surlicent quantities to meet all the demands for a very time, so that values, when they do recede, will do so gradually. Furthermore, so far as New Zealand is "concerned, there will be a considerable difficulty in importing goods from Britain, because a large proportion, u not the whole, of our steamers will be needed for the repatriation of troops. Merchants and importers are seriously urged to study the position carefully, and they will realise- that there is no redson whatever for anything in the shape of a panic The- situation is an unfortunate one for the general public, far it mean.* that the Cost of Living will continue high, though perhaps not quite so high as at present High rates of freight as compared with pre-war days, increase in prime cost, and difficulty in procuring will stiil operate in respect of imported goods and help to maintain, values ; while the prices oi the foodstuffs which we ourselves pro

! <suct> are vnlikelr to fall toy «om© ttea I awing to the strong demand' there will b$ four tihem to feed the starving mulioiw of Jjurope. Ww same Bet of conditions will tomato in Australia, Oanada., South Africa, and India, so that the people of New Zealand will have no monopoly of complaint about the high cost of living. As a matte* of fact, the Cost of living in New Zealand is relatively as low as, if not lowjor than, in the Commonwealth, and certainly lower than in .European countries. In view of all these eircumstancafl, it is to be hoped that the imperative necessity of making the offending nations bear a substantial portion, if not the whole, of the wax costs, entailed upon the Allies in defeating their nefarious designs will be strenuously insisted upon at the Peace Conference. There should be no false and foolish sentimentalism or nambypambyism when settling scores with the German nation. Recent disclosures prove beyond all possible doubt that Germany the read instigator of the war, and had made complete plans towards that end some time before the actual declaration of hostilities. It is therefore to be sincerely hoped that the abject appeals which the Hun is at present making to secure mitigation of the just punishment that is impending for his misdeeds will fall upon deaf ears and that -the Allies will be inexorable in their terms. Much will be made of the fact that Germany is financially in a bankrupt stato and unable at present to pay indemnities. That may be true; but, if so, it is Germany's concern. She has brought it upon herself and can therefore be left to Hud a way out of her own embarrassments. But Germany is not bankrupt in resources. She is rich in natural wealth, and my firm opinion is that that natural wealth should bo charged with the burden of the debt which the civilised, freedom-loving nations of the world have had to incur to protect their liberties against German aggression. It should be arranged that specific taxes should ho levied upon all Germany's prima rv products to provide fur payment, within a reasons hie period, of the allied indebtedness, tngtihi-r with the interest thereon. In this way, the magnitude of her imqnilv and the inevitable consequences of 'ci linos such as those of which (i umnnv has been guilty, would be kept alive iii'the German mind for probably the ne.u cvuhtrv, ;'i,d would furnish one of Ihe ho.- 1 gnaraot;;* against any reversion to mi'it-ohm iiv the tie! man nation. By the tine her obligation had been discharged, the triur.'[h of dcmoi racy would be eom-

plote. Mv opinion is that the British I'o minions, ai e.nv mie. should unoipuvo. all;-

hililv whiih. Gerruui greed and rapacity have f'o-ced "■.::'. them'.' If the weaHhieet m.-nihers o; idie allied familv ilesuo lo dispiav geneiosiiv to the German nation, they can", of course.' make any sacrifice they v.-isli on their own arvonnl: h-ii!. as !'..r as the jtoniirio;:- are con; criied, mil iuilcmniii.'aiiou should be -oforded. due liirooiai e:ov.:t is. moreover, not the only one thai calls tor coiisidoiatioii. Here, at/this tii.-ling-pll'.eo of the ages, stand outraged .!r,iKo and atilhted Jl auiaehy. appealing io l''.e roampions of Ro.'hl dusti'-e c'.eiu'.ind'ng vindication of her lanor. and Hvma'dly crying out for icdress. o-f slide for lie pe:petiaticu of tiie coaut'e--? iidiui-.uiuiti. ■■. barbarisms, and in:p;d;ea iuieni,,ti.:eal tiiliunal ard )■<:■■■ :ve from that aueust t'ourt the j'i.-,l puni-di-meut oi their ..iYeuci s. ddte exalted station of a udpril should have no indueuce up .; the decrees of such Coiri. The and blaspheming " All Highest." if slue... io be lesponsioie. slaadii receive fate same treatment as the eve-d- common soldier. Thus we shall perfei.t the wo:'; which our palhint dead have hadi to leave, u-iliid.-h-d, and till no the moasu-o of ihelr saaiiti- .-.. so that the splendor of ;he"> c unp'.. ;-■ ! achievement shall go down with nudinuned lustre to a guiteful pos'eaiy. and shine for ever witii ,;:i impeii-dcdd- s-lorv. ?i[r W. _ Watson, speaking oo the s:rue matter, said: It is impo-eiar.l t-> the feral;, as it is to sdiaroholders in their yo :v ; ;te capacity, that restitution should be made by the country's enemies not only of the money of v.ddeh v.e have bee:: depleted by their unprovoked war. but to provide the pensions and oilier demands consequent upon the deaths and other v.-sir casualties. It is beside the question to argue whether German can or can not pay these just claims. No such argument was entertained by Germany when she bled France white, berides taking Alsaco and Lorraine from leu- in 1371. Neither was the Boxer indemnity remitted because China was unable to pay ; on the contrary, her revenues wow taken as security. It is nonsense to say that milder measures should be adopted towards Germany, with her largo resources, .and her people, who. Socialists and all. suppo.-tpd the war and all its frightfulness with bravado as long as they hoped to gain by it, and only changed to whining after defeat. It would be extremely unjust that, we and our descendants should be saddled with the debts and taxation caused by the war. as well as having to endure the loss of thoso who can never be replaced. Let us trust that New Zealand's delegates to the Peace Conference will rise their best endeavors to see that justice is done.