THE PRESIDENTIAL FIGHT

Evening Star, Issue 16264, 6 November 1916, Page 8

THE PRESIDENTIAL FIGHT

WHO WILL WIN? THE "G.0.P." ORTHE DEMOCRATS? Close, returns give President Wilson 197 votes and Mr Hughes 192. Both sides aro strenuously pushing their candidate's claims in the doubtful States, especially in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which between them count 66 votes.-—Cable from Washington in Saturday's issue. Obviously, this is misleading, if the cable be read in the light of the most authoritative information gathered by party managers up to the end of September, the date of our latest files. Whichever candidate polls 266 or over out of the 531 votes in the Electoral College must win. Let us see where the 69 and 74 votes respectively required to elect either Wilson or Hughes are to come from. f The Socialist candidate (Mr Benson) is a negligible quantity. We shall lot offer any opinions of our own, but .•ontent ourselves by submitting for our readers' consideration the considered conclusions of recognised standard-bearers of the great political parties in whose keeping the real issue lies. A trusted organ of the Progressive Republicans (who own allegiance to Colonel Roosevelt) thus analysed the situation—after the Maine results were known —from the Progressive angle:— It will bo generally conceded that the Democrats are warranted in expecting to carry [what is known as the Solid South] the States of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Souith Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, having a total of 136 electoral vote s.

Th e Republicans consider themselves justified (and history bears- them out)

in believing that the following States will be practically certain to be in their column:—California, Colorado, Illinois, Idaho, lowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennslyvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin, totalling 240 votes, or 26 short of the number necessary to elect. Thus the States labelled " doubtful " are Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Montata, New Mexico, Nebraska, NewJersey, Nevada, New York, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Therefore, from these 15 States, possessing between them 155 votes in the lilectoral College, the Democrats must secure 130 to reseat Dr Woodrow Wilson in the Presidential chair and to reoccupy the White House for another four years. [By the pivotal States are meant New York and New Jersey, which between them control 59 votes. New York accounting for 45, while Connectiunt supplies seven. New Jersey, being the President's " home " State, must be regarded as solid for Wilson, who (according to to-day's cabto) has met with a splendid reception in the City of New York, whore he appears to have closed his campaign, probably on Friday. If he is able to obtain a 60-40 vote in that State he must win comfortably, but it must not be that Hughes put up a, sveal record a* Governor of that State, and is out for all he is worth against Tammany and the Trusts, wherefore it may be regarded as tolerably certain tint the "silent" voter will, in the last resort, lve the deciding factor.' Connecticut will more than likely declare for Wilson.l That Wilson stock has risen steadily since the above estimate of chances was published is beyond question. If the above cablegram is based on a solid foundation the Democrats have been marching on

steadily to victory, despite the great turnover in Maine a couple of months ago, and despite their loss of prestige in California, where the State Governor, Hiram Johnson, is in the ascendant. Both these States have pronounced emphatically for the Republican ticket, and are included in the Republican count,: but, on the other hand, number of States reckoned as "safe" by the Republican managers must have "bolted," otherwise the great jump from 136 to 197 in Wilson's favor in a little over a month is quite inexplicable. It will be recollected that four rears ago Dr Wilson was elected through a a oPo Ln Repul,lican vote - He Polled only b,4MfiiO- votes, -while the Roosovelt-Ta'f't vote was 7,611,050, "Teddy" scoring 4,123,000 of them, whilo Labor-Socialists" in the persons of Eugene Debs and A f' Reimer, totalled less than a million, Reimer being a bad last with 20,000, while Chaflin (Prohibition) only commanded 208 000 votes. '

The motto of the State of Maine is "Dirigo"— "I "point the way "—and Mr Hughes has declared that the Ides of August are capable of only one interpretation which he expressed laconically thus : " It looks good. 1 don't see how' we can lose now." That Maine should have abandoned the De-vjerats and have swung hack to her rightful allegiance under the powerful influence of Roosevelt oratory is nothing remarkable in itself, seeing that two years ago there were 18,255 voters who swore by the Colonel, and vented their wrath on the " G.0.1'.," the leaders of which had treated their idol abominably. Per contra in California Governor Johnson stood by his own record as a reformer, smashed the Republican party machine in that State and is to-day the Republican Senator for bis State, with every chance of making bis "marble good" in that sphere of .activity, so that four years hence he will compel the paity "bosses" to reckon with him. If they cannot break him in the interval he will assuredly deal them some

staggering blows, because ho is as clover on the stump as he has proved to be successful in.welding opposing forces. Tlie crux -of the present contest lies in the attitude of the Progressive section of the Republican party. If they have followed their leader's advice —to sink all„ minor differences and to vote solidi'jf cu/ainst their natural enemies —then in ail probability the Republicans will win. Per contra, Secretary of the Navy Daniels opines that "the doubtful States out West will present quite a different showing" to Maine, where enthusiasm for Roosevelt overrode every. other consideration. But Mr Chas. B. Warren, a member of the National Republican Committee, asserts that if the Progressives pull with the Republicans proper, as the Maine returns indicate their intention to be, he ought to receive approximately 302 electoral votes. Is the Progressive rapprochement sincere? If it is, the lead of Alaine—where Prohibition and Protection are said to have greatly damaged the Democratic cause—may reflect the trend of popular sentiment,"as it has always done before with singular accuracy. Still, the Nestor of the American Press—the Grand Old Man who dictates the policy of the 'Springfield Republican,' a paper with Independent leanings, but a declared supporter of Wilson in this campaign—points out pertinently that President Wilson himself is a formidable competitor, because he is ever so much stronger than his own party, as witness him compelling Congress to pass the Eight Hours Bill, and so ending the threatened railway strike, with the result that a block vote of 300,000 is to go to him from the grateful men who belong to that organisation. It is remarked as a good onion that the last Democratic President before Wilson was Grover Cleveland, who was also stronger than his own party, and in 1892 lie was sent to the White House, though Maine then returned a Republican' as Governor by a plurality of over 15.000. Will history repeat itself this week '! i —The German Vote—is reckoned at something like three millions strong, and if the ' New Yorker | Herald ' is to lie accepted as a trustful ! guide it will he cast against Wilson I'm j nut stopping the Auglo-h'; cuch loan last ! year and t'wr allowing tin- wholesale p.v ! IMi-l of munitions la ill- .Allies. That i journal accuses the Prescient ol Leum I non neutral. and declares that in IhV i Middle West Stales, v. he:v t'.'.e Gerliiu:>- ! ; are a force to lie rackom d with, there : will be a big ve.t.. iaet for Ht!-he.- ; President, the pivotal Slates (New York 'up 1 inv< m.l: )', iiies a.; i ; -..-i him The d.'uhiful M:it ; .., will ilo'il. a".I tleev the ! i which lias swe;|. the New ivr>!;;:.,| Mate; milsl resent s!te!i ("cache '\. and \:'.',) v.i w ! Who is l:kiiy la ca] tale i';e :i.;-.>,.it ~| | : the v. ~in< n's i -:.;::i>-ai:ous in t,, ■ S ;'e '■ I CI .-.in,-,. the :V.„li umoa, io A), ,■,:.■., ji i Ih-.iiih | j mavy of the Staics. ha.- -,. ]■;; ladea. ,o | ! win equal s;:lh.:ee lor tile hoi.o.m , : f ij. ' I'":!.-:-;! i- "os iio.i e1ven.,!,.... ! I;[ .;.•■ has I IYIV['l YlV[ ' iill! "'-'I uam ,i:g i.ie .ii.ii oi ',,.■ | hou..,!::,h[ ~ ; .l t ,., ::1 u .,. ~;.;, .... .:„. 1 re--.id | ' wiiiirni he.', phiv.-i ri ;7n:vU.'.l elm."'; |, !' j e 2 ;l:v :i"v. out l. .- ■,,-| n t is kii iwn a; tie> f S: ' :: "i !'> -\i 'h.,ov t.itK'ulni.eii', 1; f the 'e I'e.leial (.o;:s:iteti,,!i. hv which Cumie^' 3 ; ls , k < I ' l to r.oone, ti, • n-jo , : ,' the | . adu'l w. ii'en io v.,f,.. ~l ;: !| (,i„e; ;;M | „;, a all questions ou Tee same iTine .-- the I 9 • ma'e \oter i'lcident Wihm, is e.-M,..ei-ij ally sympathetic t... the women's domc.ed I , A--, an imlivmual vote;- in W.y .hivry lie e cast his halhet for equal sufi'iaoe whn'i th> I ■ question was submitted the othe.- Jay f , I a referendum in his own State; hut a« Hi" | head of a ereal political parly he has en- | dorsed the plank of the Democratic plit- (| lorin. which eays that it is a question rn- | tncly lor Slate action. As a mattor ol | h.isloncal fact, Dr Wilson wrote a "plank" I lor t!u> party manifesto, in which he ret commended all the States to concede th« | vote to women, and declared that he. U -.vould endeavor to make the suffrage 5 plank eitectual by using every influence l that he could legitimately exercise to : ensure that result; but his party managers " turned down " his peace offerl',' S ' t^'" 1, I;u 'S el . v owin g to'his action, , : the Democrats of Dakota South and. I West Virginia have agreed to stand' ior fall by this issue in the pre- : sent State elections, and the Re- ; publicans have agreed to do likewise, : i so that two more States will this year ; be added to the list of those recognising ■ equality of sex in matters electoral. And it is only fair to Wilson to mention, in ; proof of his bona fides, that his has been j the first Administration to obtain in 25 I years a vote on nation-wide suffrage in both branches of Congress; but unfortunately it requires a two-thirds majority m both Houses, which it failed to obtain, as well as a majority vote in 36 of the fetate Legislatures comprising the Union. Hughes, on the other hand, is an out-and-out suffrage supporter, and has dei dared boldly for the Anthony ameiid- • ment, and has promised the women that, if returned, he will work actively to overcome opposition in Congress to the , reform. And as the author of the j Anthony amendment (Senator Bohrah) is ] a prominent Republican, it is quite perI missible to anticipate that Hughes will ipersuade his party to "stand pat" for the amendment when it next appears on the floor of Congress. Still, the national organisation for securing equal suffrage refused to make an out-and-out declaration for any candidate. That famous suffrage advocate, the I Rev. Dr Anna Shaw, who is president '•■ emeritus of the National Association, con- :' sidered that " Wilson ought to have'done , more," but could not travel ahead of his ■ party; while Miss Lucy Burns (vice- ; chairman) expressed impatience with the ; President's " vague and poetic phrases j concerning moons and flood tides, and 1 declared that he had ' missed a great ' opportunity ' " in failing to plump (as . his opponent had done) for the full | • "hog." Though the great National Convention at Atlantic City was decidedly proHughes, owing to his candid declaration of support, the influence of the national i president (Mrs Catt) never made itself : more manifest. As the women must get ! support from all camps in order to win, \ she counselled a non-partisan attitude, and after much debate the convention voted down decisively a resolution declaring the Federal amendment to be the immediate and principal aim of the organisation, and maintained its attitude of strict neutrality. Nevertheless, there is good reason for believing that here again there will be a powerful | . " bolt," and that in the enfranchised I States Hughes will gain considerably by 11 his frank confession of the justice of the jj women's' cause. In to-morrow's article the situation will be discussed from the viewpoint of the Republicans, as analysed by one of ! their best-known writers. 1 Knox Church Sabbath School anniversary was celebrated yesterday. In the morning there was a very large, attendl ance of scholars, who, with their teachers, 0 were grouped in the centre of the church. I The preacher was the Rev. R. M. Ryburn, of Invereargill (Moderator of the General Assembly). There was a large gathering again in the afternoon, when Mr Fawcett (general superintendent) presided, and the children were addressed by the Rev. K. A. Axelscn. The evening service was devoted to Bible class members. Mr Ryburn was the preacher, his subject being The Mastery Over Self.'