IF TRUE.

Evening Star, Issue 16032, 8 February 1916, Page 6

IF TRUE.

•'RUMANIA THREATENED. POSSIBLE ENEMY COUP. THE REASONS WHY. STRATEGICAL POSSIBILITIES. [By CRITICTJ9.] Rumania lias again suddenly become the centre of interest, and reports are coming through which, if true, indicate a determination on the part of the Central Powers to force an issue. The Rumanian correspondent of 'II Secolo,' of Milan, telegraphed on Wednesday that Austria and Germany had formally notified Rumania that they regard the eventual election of two Transylvanian Irredentist parliamentary candidates at Galatz and Caracal, and the sale to Great Britain of over 00,000 waggons loads of grain, as acts of hostility to the Central Powers, which will take measures accordingly. It may be explained that " irredenta" means unredeemed. The Rumanians regard the Hungarian province of Transylvania, which contains from three to five millions of people, of Rumanian blood, as unredeemed Rumanian territory, of which they will take possession when opportunity offers. The return at the Rumanian elections of two candidates from Transylvania who are frankly in favor of the conquest of that country by Rumania would naturally be looked upon by the Central Powers as a serious menace under present circumstances.

Rumania is said to have replied that her Constitution does not permit the Government to thwart tho election of Irredentists, and it is only possible for Parliament to nullify tho results by declaring them illegal. Secondly, the. sale of grain is a purely economic question, and tho Government must necessarily safeguard the economic interests of the country, which could not be deprived of the latter's sources of gain. No official confirmation of these statements is availablo at tho moment of writing, but a _ correspondent of the Chicago ' Daily News ' on tho Rumanian frontier declares that the latest demands of tho Central Powers upon Rumania include the most complete written guarantees of neutrality favorable to the Austro-Ger-mans and demobilisation of the army, which is entrenched on the Transvlvanian frontier 50 yards distant from tho Austrian Laudsturm. He asserts that the fact that new Russian guns are churning the Austro-German trenches fortified M. Bratiano in rejecting the demands. When, however, the correspondent goes on to describe a council at which the Kaiser presided and which Marshal Von Mackensen and General Jekoff attended, which decided that the Bulgarians should forthwith advance upon Salonika, ho affords justification for saying that his statements must bo accepted with extreme caution. WHAT IT MAY MEAN.

Rumania has frankly declared all along ' that she is ready to rush to the. rescue of tho victors when the issue is decided. Sinco_ the enemy pulled up on the Greek frontier, and the comparative- impotence and the hollowness of all tho romantic talk of what they were going to do when they joined hand's with the. Turks became revealed, Eumnnia has inclined more and more to the side of the Allies. The Central Powers are becoming apprehensive as to what lino of conduct she mav take in the spring. Thev know that tier intervention on the. side of tho Allies will be the knell of doom for them, and if they become convinced that it is impossible for them to prevent her from taking sides against them they will naturally ask themselves if it is possible to forestall Rumania and crush her before the Allies can aid her effectively. Such a course of action would give them a sporting chance- of imposing their will upon that countrv. The essence of the matter would lie in the fact that the Allies are not yet fully prepared for their general advance, and the Central Powers might hope to score again as the result of their inner linos and more forward preparations. It is tho dead of winter in the Balkans. The snow is lying thick upon tho passes, and snow is a terrible handicap to tho movements of troops, especially in mountain, regions. ]n the Balkans the frost makes the snow dry and powdery, so that it will 7iot pack, and this renders it a doubly formidable obstacle to marching and transport. Tho enemy may hope that a part of the Bulgarian army could hold the Anglo-French, forces in check under conditions so unfavorable for the movements of large armies, while the remainder of the Bulgarian forces, and perhaps some Turkish troops, joined with tho AustroGerman in combined and convergent attacks upon Rumania. They may argue that their chances of crushing Rumania before the Entente Powers can render effective help are fair, as there are yet nearly three months of wintry weather; and that in any case it is better to make tho attempt than leave Rumania to intervene against them at the hour which best suits .herself. NOT A PROMISING VENTURE. "While it is quite on tho cards that the Central Powers will adopt such a lino of action, their chances of success are not promising, and the venture is one to bo looked upon rather as tho last desperate throw of a ruined gambler than as a probable means of salvation. The same wintry conditions which would handicap the Allies in aiding the Rumanians would prove an obstacle to the enemy in their attack. Rumania is defended on the north by the formidable barrier of the Transylvanian Alps, passable by armies only at certain pointy Ever since the beginning of the war the Rumanians have been busy fortifying them, against possible eventualities, and it has been assorted that they are now practically impregnable. Certainly they will be deep in snow at this period of the year, and will remain so until the melting of the snows further south facilitates the advance of the Allies. A fraction of Rumania's army should suffice to guard that barrier, leaving the remainder free to defend the Danube against the Bulgarians. Only a part of tho Bulgarian forces would be available and the Allies could see to it that the Turks took no serious part. It is now February 8, and it was during the night of February 6-7 of last vea-r that- the Turks began to retreat from tho Suez Canal. Their Egyptian offensive is overduo, and will probably not materialise. It is open to tho British direction to occupy the Turks either by an attack m the Smyrna province, or by an attack in the Balkans in the direction of Adrianople (according to the nature of the available communications), with the ! strong forces now in Egypt. Therefore the Rumanians should have no .great diffi- | culty in defending so formidable a bai-rier I as the Danube against tho Bulgarians. [ Add to all this the fact that the Rusi sians could render immediate assistance in Moldavia, the northern arm of the Rumanian boomerang. It is said that they are _ steadily nearing Czernowitz, though this is probably merely talk. In any case, if once the Central Powers break with Rumania the barrier of the Carpathians will be broken down for Russia. It will be possible to attack Bulgaria across Rumania, and ultimately to turn the Carpathians by the passes of the Transylvanian Alps. It is necessary to emphasise the need for caution in accepting the reports coming to hand, but j there may be something in the •wind. The [ diplomatic struggle is approaching a crisis, ; and only a, few days ago the Bulgarian 1 Premier, M. Radoslavoff, is said to have ; his intention to compel Rumania | to explain her intentions, while Russia -was reported yesterday to be massing troops on the Danube. SOME BALKAN SKIRMISHES. The first encounter with tho enemy since the Allies retired into Greece took I place on Sunday, when French patrols en- | countered the Bulgarians on the Doiran I front. There were a few casualties. This may have been a merely incidental skir43X it rnajr hayo had;. # relation, fa

what is occurring in other parts. Yesterday _ there was a statement that the SerboItahan forces in Albania had been compelled to fall back in the vicinitv of Alessio, and there is a report, probably untrue, that the Bulgarians have captured Llbassan. If the Austrians and Bukarm"s are really pushing into Albania it will bo the business of the Anglo-French from Salonika to press heavily to thenfront to give as much relief to the Serboltahans as possible. That would account for_ the skirmishes. It would be the same if it is true that the Central Powers are preparing to attack Rumania. Immediate preparations to take the offensive would havo to be commenced. But it is altogether improbable that the enemy will threaten Rumania and advanco into Albania as well. The correspondent of the Chicago 'Daily News,' in the same cable in which he announces that the Central Powers are threatening Rumania, states that the enemy's war council decided that tho Bulgarians should at once push on to Salonika. This, of course, is ridiculous. If the enemy attack Rumania, Bulgaria will havo to stand on the defensive in tho south. But when the correspondent adds that Bulgaria is embarrassed regarding a concession of territory to Turkey,' and°requires explicit guarantees of 'Rumanian neutrality before embarking on. the Salonika adventure, he is probably correct.

THE SERBIAN ARMY. Most of us were hoping that tho mass of the Serbian army would be in safety by now, but Mr Ward Price writes "that when he left Corfu there were 154.000 Serbs at Durazzo awaiting transport. ' At what date that was written is not clear. Mr Price's message seems to have been in the form of a letter, and. if so, it may have been several weeks ago. The Austria!* may soon be down upon Durazzo, and if the Serbians are not in safety wo may loso the services of large, bodies of veteran troops, as it is doubtful if they can offer much resistance until thev have been reorganised and re-equipped. "There seems to have been considerable lack of co-ordinated action among the Allies. Doubtless the Anglo-French were in need of all their i#nsports for the conveyance of their own troops, while Italy was 'reluctant to take over'the responsibility. Mr Price adds that there is reason to'believe that yio task has now been properly taken in hand, and an effort will be made to remove the Serbians before the Austrians and Bulgarians descend. THE POTENCY OF WORDS. Yesterday it was suggested in these notes that if Germany should prove obstinate over the word "illegal" in the Lusitama case President Wilson would cast about for some other formula to enable him to avoid facing unpleasant facts. We now learn that Germany has agreed that reprisals must not be directed against any other than enemy subjects, and it is probable that the United States will to accept this phrase as a substitute 3 for tho word "illegal." This excellently illustrates the triviality of mind often" displayed by so-called statesmen. Germany is enabled to escape from a dangerous diplomatic situation, and from the consequences of murdering a large number of American citizens, by merely repeating the most elementary commonplace of international "law" that could well be imagined. When dealing with logically incompetent doctrinaires a wonderful" potency resides in the skilful adjustment of words.