OUR LONDON LETTER

Evening Star, Issue 15065, 23 December 1912, Page 8

OUR LONDON LETTER

[By. W.' L. GEORGE.] November 16, 1912. To all the New.Zealanders London sends Christmas greetings. ; The Balkans, and Home, Rule. These are the two oppressive subjects to-day in our political conversation, and this is not wonderful, for the .former seemed a few days ago likely to lead to a European war in which Great Britain might be involved while the Tatter has so shaken the Government that a Ministerial crisis would have surprised nobody. The Balkans seem to have been far more dangerous in the diplomatic than in the military field. While Serbs, Greeks, and Bulgarians have beei carrying on the war with amazing success south, west, and east of the Ottoman Empire, a grave crisis between Servia and Austria came to light. To-day the tone of the European Press is very optimistic—perhaps too optimistic, for no clear settlement has yet been outlined. As is dcubtless known to von, thanks to cabled news, the Allies have now overrun the whole of European Turkey ; the Bulgarians are at. the gates of Constantinople itself, and, as i write these lines, are said to have broken down the last defence: Adrianople is besieged, and in such parlous state that its fall can be a question but of days, if not of hours; Salonica has been occupied by the Greeks, while the victorious Serbs are driving to the south the beaten remnants of the Macedonian army. So far, so good; the Turk has no true friends in Europe, who stands aghast when it lemembers the mas:ac es of Adana and Kochana and Monastir, the tale of nuidered Macedonian children and of outraged Cluistiai women. Not even in Russia, in spite of that country's abominable record of Jewish massacres, is a voice raised in Turxe»-'s defence. "T, he danger does not lie theie. but in (he Adriatic, towards which the Serbs are advancing. It will be recalled that Servia is, with Switzerland, the only European country devoid of a coastline." Its trade has greatly suffered therefrom, for it has had tc meet everywhere hostile tariffs and high l ail way .rates. Servia has fought not only for the liberation of those Serbs whom the Turk has oppressed, but also for this access to the sea. which is the life of a commercial State. In pursuance of this aim the Serbs have sent a corps through Moslem Albania, and have reached the Adriatic.

In the Adriatic is the problem, for it is entirely an ftalo-Austrian sea. and neither of these nations view with equanimity' the appearance on the'scene of a small Power which may become a great one in course of time. So seriously do they view this movement that Count Berchtold has plainly declared that, in the event of Servia establishing itself on the Adriatic Austria would declare war. ]f this had happened Russia would - have been compelled by Slav opinion to step in and defend brother-Slavs, and doubtless the whole of the Triple Alliance and of the -triple Entente would have been drawn in A condition of affairs such as this was too ludicrous to last. It may be politics to say that 10 million men will fight because hervia wants a dock, but it is not common sense. Now, common sense winch is not always greatly appreciated in European chancelleries, has (his time won a victory : its chief exponents seem to have been the Kaiser himself, whom I still believe to ne a lover of peace under his military bombast, and M. Point-arc. the trench Prune Minister. Austria has b=en reminded of the famous German dictum, that f the whole of the Balkans are not worth the bones of a Pomeranian 'grenadier, while Russia has officially "v termed Servia that its demands for a," lon' coastline were exaggerated, and would no" te supported by Rucsian arms. This frankness has had. good results, which should serve as a lesson for the diplomats who too often negotiate in the dark-' bervia has not pushed on to the coveted sea, and Austria, while maintaining it--, opposition to a Servian port, has put forward interesting suggestions, such as a commercial Servian port on the Austrian coast, connected with a Servian railway; i* has also offered to grant Montenee-o another port, with which Servia may link up; it has even offered Salonica." The first idea is good, but I doubt whether the Servians will irust Austria and future Austrian tariffs: the second is C-ilbertian, /or it amounts to refusing Servia something, and giving it to somebody else on the understanding that this somebody will then hand the something to Servia ;' the third is unscrupulous, for Salonica is not in the gift of Austria ; besides, it is the prize of Greece, with reversion to Bulgaria. The third scheme would sow dissension among the allies, and it is to b-j hoped that Austria does not nut it forward in a Machiavellian spirit. Still, these proposals open the door for conciliation, and I think it safe to say that the danger of an immediate European conflict has disappeared. Whether it has disappeared for good is mother question : The Turks are .suing for pence, and will obtain it, hut on terrible terms; thev must cede the_ conquered territory, that'is the whole of European Turkey, allow Constantinople to be, internationalised, pav a war indemnity. The spoils are good, 'but will the sharing of them be easy?" Can we be sure that Bulgaria and Greece will not both claim Salorica? That Rumania will bs content with a- strip of land near the Danube, while Bulgaria, doubles its ares? That Servia. and Montene,gro will not both wish both to annex rhe Sandjak of NoviBr.zar? That Russia will mot want to open the Dardanelles? T repeat that the European Press seem far too optimistic; this does not mean thit I look forward to a European war, but thrt we must be ready for scares and difficulties, end resolve to rercain cool so as not to hamper bv hysterical public manifestations the peacef :il work of the great Powers. It is good to know that to-day there are 20 British warships, of which. 3 battleships are in Turkish waters. As England, of all countries, has nothing to gain, and does not wish to fight. I incline to think that the presence of the British fleet serves rather as a warning than as a provocation. ******* Meanwhile there is great uproar over the Home Rule Bill. The uproar does»not seem very well justified in fact, however much it may signify according to the arbitrary rules of the parliamentary game. Ihe financial portion of the Bill had been mostly voted oiPand passed when, at the beginning of this week. Sir Frederick Banbury laid down an amendment limiting the Imperial expenditure on the Irish " Exchequer to £2.500.000. The motion was unexpected, a "snap" division took place, and the amendment was voted by a majority of 22. If it were to stand 'it would be fatal to the Bill, for a sum of not less than £9,400,000 is due to Ireland as a repayment of her contribution to the Imperial Exchequer. It could not stand, for it would be unreasonable to lav down that Ireland shall pay £9 8s and receive back £2 10s. The Government have therefore decided to make the question one of confidence, assuming that the vote was merely one of surprise, and have gained their end, for the verdict is about to be reversed. The Opposition, however, still maintain an elaborate pretence that the Bill has been defeated, and to emphasise this have gone so far as to create a violent scene, in the House, where the Solicitor-General was 6houted down and a book flung at Mr Churchill's head.

All this is very artificial and rather schoolboyish ; it is clear that a Government whose Bill has been securing, clause by clause, majorities of 90 to 110 is not going out on the success of a political ambush. The destruction of the Home Rule Bill will not, therefore, come from such manoeuvres; it has other perils to face, though they mav now be minimised by some of the concessions Mr Asquith has granted, and it certainly behoves Ministerialists to be more watchful and to attend the House more regularly. If this attendance is maintained the Bill will pass through the Commons after all, and will not be much delayed. The amendments I have alluded to are peculiar, for they are more radical than the amendments a first-class measure usua.llv undergoes. In the first place, a new safeguard against ".Roman Catholic oppreseion " ha 6 been introduced by the emancipation of the two Protestant universities, Trinity College, Dublin, and Queen's, Belfast, from the authority of tho Irish Parliament; they will, as" hertofore, be governed from Westminster. I look upon this as an objectionable feature, foj & is,

not good that Irish education' should be taken away from Irish control; moreover, the amendment intensifies the religious division in the country, which all true Irishmen should deplore. The Government have gone too far in their desire to conciliate, and they do not seem to have gained much from their opponents, to judge from the insults which are being hurled at them across the floor of the House. Further protection has been given the Protestants by the acceptance of amendments which debar the Irish Parliament from passing any law of disestablishment or of disendowment, saving public expropriation with compensation ; those who have in mind the test of the original Bill should therefore not fear that the Catholics will have an opportunity to oppress their Protestant fellow-citizens. A far more important amendment has been made in the Constitution of the Irish Senate (Upper House). It will be recalled that the original proposal was for a Senate to be nominated in the first place bv the Imperial Parliament and suhsequentlv bv the Irish Executive. This was designed to protect the Protestants, but it has been pointed out that the safeguards were not absolute, for the Irish Government might eventually confine 'nominations to Catholics. So as to remove this danger. Mr Asquith has introduced an amendment, following on which the Senate will, in the first place, bo nominated bv the Imperial Parliament, and, after five "years, be elected by the constituencies on' a system of proportional representation. This', it is thought, will ensure that between 11 and 14 Senators will be elected by the minority. Now, I do not want to'be hypercritical, but 1 cannot see that the ' Protestants will greatlv benefit by being given even 14 members in a House of 40; the minority cannot be protected, and the minority must suffer. If, however, the Unionists derive some satisfaction from the new scheme, it is welcome. They voted against itr in the House, but under the party system that dees not signify anything. The amendment is open to objection solely on the part of those who dislike proportional representation, and they are legion. Mr Asquith has. it is true, not introduced the system in the Constitution of the Irish House of Commons, who will be free to introduce it if it chooses after three, years have elapsed, and he has has not committed himself to it in general; but it is undeniable that he has created a serious precedent. The main objection to proportional representation is that it is very difficult to understand, so that the electors do not know how to use it. The advocates say that they will learn; we shall see. The part 1 have taken in ordinary elections has taught me that the elector can spoil a simple paper. 1 would hardly trust him with a list of 15 names. I have no space to deal with the amendments that were lost, except the women's suffrage amendment.' Mr Asquith and Mr Redmond refused to accept it, because the franchise does not at present exist for the 'lmperial Parliament. That is sound enough, for the Irish Parliament can deal with the question when the fateful three years of tutelage have passed away, while the Irish members will be free to vote as they choose when the women's suffrage amendment to the Franchise Bill is moved. What the fate of this will be I do not venture to prophesy, for the currents are now too many. Seven notable converts have been made to Home Rule : Sir Arthur Conan Doyle and Mr Joseph Hocking (novelists), Sir Frederick Pollock (the noted lawver), and

Sir West Ridgeway (ex-Under-Seeretary for Ireland when Mr Balfour was applying the' Coercion Acts) are the principal. This is a striking and satisfactory rally to greater Liberalism. * * * * -x- * * Naval news is abundant again. Holland i"- about to build five Dreadnoughts for the defence of its East Indian colonies. These will be an unfortunate fact for our economy, if built, as they will be stationed in Australian waters. Still, the cost would he £12.500,000, and it is best not to cede to a scare until and unless th-e money is voted. Meanwhile the British fleet is to have the accession of a first class cruiser from the Malay States —a welcome addition to the ever-growing Dominion's armada; while the Princess Royal, the new battle cruiser, has given the public an cigreeable surprise. The new ship has just finished her speed tests, and has attained the astonishing figure of 54.7 knots; she thus outstrips by three knot* our fast-eft cruiser, while the fastest German ship, the Moltke, can aggregate no more than 28.57 knots. Ther-e-facts must not be lost sight of when comparing strengths, and I take the opportunity of saying that, as regards Dreadnought cruisers, our superiority remains unimpaired. We have at present five to Germany's three; at the end of the financial year we shall have eight to her four. I take from the 'Pall Mall Gazette' the interesting fact that by the end of 1913 the position in the Dreadnought cruisers and battleships will be : British Empire 25, Triple Alliance 22. There, is therefore no immediate ground for anxiety. **** N * * * . The military position is not. however, so good, and Lord Roberts may not have been so ill-advised when he made the. speech so severely commented upon of late. His attack, mainly delivered on the Territorial Force, is not- unjustified, for it is certain that this force is not to.-a.incd as are foreign regulars. Lord Roberts is right in thinking that the force is useless if our Fleet is beaten and in allowing it to be concluded that we might as well disband the Territorials. He is, however, unwise in using violent language in general. In the incriminated "speech he referred specifically to Germajiv, " who struck when her hour had struck." who, according to him, desired the hegemony of the world. He should not bid Britons prepare against ■ a power with whom we are to-day working for peace in the Near East. Such language is provocative, and it- will bo agreed that there are better ways of making a country realise its military needs than loose and indiscriminate abuse of a hitherto unoffending Power. ******* The White Slave. Bill has at last passed through the House. No noteworthy addition has been made to it, except that the flogging question has been settled. It has caused a great deal of heartburning, for the body of Liberal opinion is against corporal punishment. A compromise has been effected by the maintenance of flogging in the Bill for men only and for repetition of offence. It therefore follows that white slave traders will be liable, as heretofore, to imprisonment and deportation, to which, on a second conviction, flogging may be added. It is difficult to take sides on the absolute merits of the case. The offence committed by the white slave traders is so abominable that public opinion becomes hysterical' and asks for savage punishments. Certainly the crime is more serious than many a theft, and it is sometimes practical murder when the wretched victims take their lives after the ignominy to which they are subjected. Still, there is another side. No civilised society should inflict torture or even physical paiii. Fine, imprison, deport—those* are poor means enough, and they are not effective in the present- state of'the law. But the law can be strengthened, imprisonm-ent extended—anything can be done that does not deprave public opinion, accustom it to cruelty and to blocd. If ours is a. society of humanity it. is for our society to be humane, to defend itself, but not to indulge in revenge.