THE FEDERAL FIGHT.

Evening Star, Issue 13002, 22 December 1906, Page 7

THE FEDERAL FIGHT.

RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS. AS YOU WERE. [From Our Sfeciai. Correspondent.] SYDNEY, December 14. There is always a certain satisfaction in being able to say “ I told you so ” when one’s predictions have been verified. In the bulk, my anticipations for some weeks past in the ‘Star’ as to the probable results of the Federal General Elections have been consistently that the upshot would be to leave parties practically as before, so fax as the House cf Representatives was concerned, and to improve the position of the anti-Socialistic party in the Senate. These prognostications have been verified almost entirely, and in view of the difficulty of gauging the force of public opinion in the other States, owing to the fact that the Sydney Press were almost unanimously for the anti-Socialists, and against the Government and Socialists, tills was gratifying to the individual outlook, though it may be ; the opposite from the point of view of one who was hoping for some definite result from the struggle. i At the moment it is not possible to make a definite statement as to the exact position of parties, as a result of the fight, but, generally speaking, it may he said that, as I anticipated, Mr Reid is very slightly stronger, that the Labor-Socialists arc in the same position, and that Mr Deakin is weaker. One or two seats are still in the balance at the time of writing, notably that, of Mr M'Lcan in Victoria, but, giving it to the Labor-Socialist, the position of parties in the New House cf Representatives is about as

follows: —ln Present House.—

I For the purpose of comparison, I give a. corresponding table showing the position of parties prior to the elections, in the order of States, and it is curious how closely the totals approximate: —ln Former House.—

It will bo seen that Mr Reid and the Socialists have gained one vole each, at the expense of Sir Deakin, but still the fact remains that no one parly has an actual majority, and Parliament will open with status quo ante. Queensland, it will be observed, has spoken with no uncertain voice, and in place of returning seven out of nine Socialists, it has now but four. New South Wales in the country electorates has practically reversed this position, and whereas it was the former stronghold of anti-Socialism, with fifteen out of twenty-two votes for Mr Reid, it- has now only eleven out of twenty-three, the four scats which were lost having gone to the labor-Socialists. while the Ministry have captured the new seat allotted to this State, and which was gained at the expense of Victoria. In South Australia the antiSocialists have gained one seat from the Ministerialists, while in West Australia the Socialists have gained ono seat from the antiBocialists, and in Tasmania parties arc just as they were. The great surprise of the elections was undoubtedly the result in New i South Wales, and this was due chiefly to | tho remarkable apathy of voters. It may ; bo said that there is no ground on which 'to base this assumption, and that there I is no reason for saying that the bulk of j the unrecorded votes, had they been recorded, would have gone against tfie Socialists. Yet this claim is made by Mr Reid, Mr Carruthcrs, and tho Press, and probably it is the fact, as notoriously the Labor-So-cialists are splendidly organised, and polled . almost every available vote. The Opposii tiou was, on tho other hand, very poorly organised, Lad no defined war cry, and were fighting, at the most, a negative policy, 1 while the Sodaiista bad something very tangible in the way of a policy. There is, Ijowever, ono aspect of the subject which I have nob so far seen referred to. The Protectionist party in New South Wales in former years polled a very' largo vole, .often nearly a moiety of the whole, and yet they had but five candidates openly Protectionist at the polls, and, curiously, each of these was returned. Now. it may have happened, and |to my knowledge did. in some electorates, that, in tho absence of a Protectionist, many voters refused to vote at all rather than support a Freetrader, while they could not support a Socialist, and consequently tho vote j recorded was small. In other electorates, I again, rather than vote for a Freetrader, ‘ limy Protectionists voted for Labor-Social-ists, winch helped to swell the Socialistic veto. This was tho case m. such electorates as Macquarie and Wcrriwa, in which the sitting members. Messrs Sydney Smith and Conroy, wr-ro beaten by small majorities on a low total vote. But, given all ibis in, the vote in New South Wales was very low, having the total numbers ou the roll in view, and apathy lost several seats, and failed to gain others. In this sense the silent veto was cast for Socialism.

In iho new House but few of the old I prominent faces will be missing apart from tnos© yrh o din not again seek election. Tho two most notable of these will bo Mr Sydney Smith, in New South Wales, and Mr M'Loan in Victoria* whose absence will be a blow to Mr Reid, Mr Smith was a consistent supporter of Mr Reid, was a member of his later Ministries, and was a useful, though not a brilliant, politician. Mr M‘Lean was an able and conscientious man. a former Premier of Victoria, and one of the most useful of the Victorian representatives. Fortunately, in Victoria his place will be filled by the election of Mr Irvine, also a former Victorian Premier, and a most capable barrister; but in New South Wales no new man has come to the front on the Opposition side, except Mr Bowden, who has no public record. In Victoria several old faces will be missing from tho Chamber, one of these being Mr *M‘Cay, but there will be a corresponding number of new men. On the Opposition side will be Mr Agar Wynne, of the Victorian Legislative Council, Mr George Fairbairn, who had a big victory for Fawkner, Mr W. H. Irvine, Mr Hans Irvine, also a former Legislative Councillor, and a wellknown vigneron; Mr J. T. Brown, who succeeds Mr Isaacs, late Attorney-General: and Mr Sydney Sampson, who gained a victory over a Socialist and three other "anti-Socialists at Whmnera. The Government have a new supporter in Mr Jabcz Coon, who scored for them at Balmain, and was the only new man to succeed on that side, while the LaborSocialists have a new man in Mr Janie? Matthews, who got in by a Government split at Melbourne Ports; and Mr J. K. MTkmgall, who won a close fight at Wanner In Tasmania, as far as we can learn. V Atkinson, an anti-Socialist. will replace a* other of tho same party —Mr Cameron—w» was badly knocked out. In West Australiat Fremantle the anti-Socialist candidate, M Hedges, has beaten the former Sodalis member, Mr Carpenter, by a narrow majority. In South "Australia the only change is that Mr Livingstone, an anti-Socialist, has gained a ©eat for the Opposition at Barker; while in Queensland Mr Foxton, at Brisbane, has beaten Mr Culpin; Mr Archer has beater Mr Thompson at Oapricomia; and Mr Sin clalr has beaten Mr Wilkinson at More ton all three being anti-Sociabsts, who hnv ousted tho sitting Labor-Socialists. So f?: therefore, with the exception of the Me.srrIrvmo and Wynne in Victoria and Mr Fox ton, no men with established reputationhave gained ©eats, and they may just about compensate* for the men who were beaten in debating power and personality. In tho Senate elections the results, judging by present returns, have been more decisive than in the House of Representatives, and everything points to the probability that Mr Reid will have a party of nineteen, in a Chamber of thirty-six, and representing a majority in tho representation of two States and- a moiety in two othemr-This £ means that, even assuming a coalition between Mr T) oaken and the Socialists, the Senate.-.wpuW always be strong enough to keepvery objectionable - while .the. Ministerial party would hardly be able'to . get a dissolution, even should they .desire it. The figures, however, are still subject to alteration as tho returns come in, as every few hours seem to bring about a change in tho state of parties. This may b© gathered from tho fact that while this (Friday) meaning the position was: AzrU-Socsabsts, 12; Labor-Socialists, 5; and MinistcrxaHste, 1;

these had changed by the evening to—AntiSocialists. 10; Socialists, 6; and Ministerialists, 2. In Queensland, Victoria, Tanmim, and South Australia the five or six leading men are so dose together that every- lair’s returns make a difference. At present a

Socialist (Mr Keating) is leading an anti. Socialist for third place by about 200 votes in a poll of 22,000; in Western Australia a Socialist is also leading an anti-Sodalist by about 800 in a vote of 21,000 for third place; in South Australia three Socialists are just ahead of an anti-Sesalist for third place, and any of the four may get it; -while in Queensland the numbers are'.jumping up and down in a remarkable' way, as may be seen from the. fact that, whereas in the roaming the totals were—Cbataway, 41,789; Sayers. 38,326; St. Leger, 37,793; Higgs, 37,225; and Griffith, 33,121 —the three former being anti-Socialists and the two latter Socialists—the figures this afternoon were— Chataway, 45,772; Griffith, 45,581; Sayers, 43,055; St. Ledger, 42,731; and Higgs, 39,840. Another Socialist cx-Senator (Mr Dawson) was at the bottom of the poll, with a vote of 19,418. It is now fairly certain that Mr Higgs will bo defeated, though it is impossible to say definitely yet, and this will be serious for him, as, had he come back and the Ministerialists and Socialists obtained a majority, he would probably be the next President of the Sncaic- Another notable defection in the Senate is that of Mr Playford,. who represented the Government in that Chamber, and is a bad last in thx South Australian list.

In New South Wales the three retiring Oppositionists (Messrs Walker, Gould, and Millen) have been returned by a largo majority, and it appears that the Socialists will have a corresponding victory in West Australia. Thldng the highest poll on either side up to the present in each State, the results would be: AntiSocialism, 458,000; Socialism, 325,000; and Ministerialists, 133,000. It is curious how closely these figures approximate to the positions of parties in the Senate, as I have previously stated them, while at the same time they show that the representation in the House of Representatives_of the throe parties is quite out of accord with the votes of the great mass of the electors, as Mr Ecid has only 32 seats out of 75, while one-half _ of the electors endorsed his policy in the voting for the Senate. These vagaries are the result of our system. And now as to the future. Who can predict what will happen? Really it is a most difficult tangle to unravel. Of course, Mr Deakin and the Socialists between them have a majority, but will they co-operate? The elections have shown an almost equally clear line of demarcation between Mr Deakin and the majority of his followers and the Socialists, as between Mr Reid and the latter. Mr Deakin aud most of his supporters were bitterly opposed by Socialists, and have spoken and fought against them. But at the same time Sir Wm. Lyne and some others have had the open support of the Socialists, and have accepted their policy of land-value taxation. But even assuming Sir Wm. and his Socialistic Protectionist adherents to number ten, and that they co-operate with the Socialists, the latter would still bo in a minority. Really one could hardly credit a rapprochement between Mr Deakin with all his following and Mr Watson, the Socialist leader, especially as the essential feature of the policy of the latter is landvalue taxation, while Mr Deakin has strenuously opposed this. On this subject his great organ, the ‘Age,’ is very uncompromising. It says, dealing with the result of the elections ; It leaves the Labor party in no position to dominate any other party. The declared sense of the country is against a fisc;: truce.” Mr Reid, it declares, is a negliri 1 -: ■ quantity in Commonwealth politics. 't Labor party, it says, ” has shown a spirit o intolerant aggression, directed as ruuvh against Liberalism, with which in the main its policy is coincident, as against the most stagnated of Conservatism. Its hand has been raised against every man; it has scorned accommodation and repudiated all compromise. It has fought friend and too without the smallest regard to the triumph of any principle, and with an eye directed solely to its own aggrandisement. It pot up eighteen candidates in Victoria, and has got only four of them returned, and it has fared even worse in other places where it formerly achieved success. The ignominious repulse it has received in Ballarat is a part- of the reaction which has set in nearly everywhere against its tyranny, and it is pretty safe to say that in the next State elections there, awaits for it a further lesson, more salntary than that which it received on Wednesday.'”

On the other hand, the Sydney ‘ Daily Telegraph, 1 representing the Reid party, says: •* These are the facts of the position, and they have to be considered in their practical light. What, therefore, remains to be done? The answer is written plainly on tho face of tho situation. Obey the mandate of the people. A working majority of Anti-Social-ists have been returned who only require to act as loyally to their principles as the Socialist minority does in order to remove all difficulties and establish a Government able to rule legitimately by right of its own strength. To do this the fiscal question must cease to be a bone of contention in the AntiSocialist party, as it lias ceased to be amongst their opponents. Let the fiscal majority have its way, and be done with itThere would be no use in Freetraders standing out for the impossible under any circumstances, but when the result is to throw a section of Anti - Socialists, and with that section the whole Anti-Socialist cause, into the bauds of the common enemy, such a course of action would be worse than merely futile. Any reasonable compromise they should therefore be prepared to make for the purpose of ending a state of things that must grow-worse the longer it is allowed to exist." All of which seems to tend towards throwing Mr Deakin and Mr Reid together, on lines of Tariff adjustment first, as some basis of compromise, and subsequently on hues of common antagonism to the Socialists, who may be openly joined with the arch-intriguer Sir Wm. Lyne and some of his personal adherents. This is my own personal forecast of what will be the ultimate result, after a period of finessing and marchings and coun-ter-marching, between the cohorts of all sides. Saturday, December 15. The returns this morning show that Mr M'Lean has now been definitely defeated 1 v 98 votes in a poll of nearly 16,000. the resnl: • being complete. At the same time, in another Victorian electorate in which tho result was in doubt, Bchuca, the anti-Socialisti? candidate (Mr Palmer) has apparently secured a very narrow victory against tho Labor-Socialist sitting member (Mr Kennedy). The figures are ; Palmer 7,630, and Kennedy 7,634, with six absentee votes' yet to bo counted. These, of course, may all go to Mr Kennedy, but the odds are against it. These results leave the general total of parties as I described it previously. In the Senate the results are still tr> :: slight extent in the balance, though in Queensland the Anti-Socialists have now a definite lead again over the Socialists, and it is certain the latter will not gain a scab In Victoria two Anti-Socialists and ono Socialist are definitely elected; in South Australia the position is: Sir J. Symcn (AntiSocialist) 53,002, W. Russell (Socialist 31,227, J. Bardon (Anti - Socialist) 31,033, D. A. Crosby (Socialist) 30,922, R. B. Blundell (Socialist) 30,805, and D. M. Charleston (Anti-Socialist) 30,150- It will bo scon that the final result is quite in the balance, but the position of the three leading men has now been maintained for some timo. In "West Australia three Socialists arc definitely returned; but in Tasmania there is just a possibility of a change for third place. Messrs Cameron and Clemons, Anti-Socialists, have been returned, but for third place Mr Keating (Ministerialist, 23,187) and Mr Kwing (Anti-Socialist, 22,787) are having a cl ns*' fight, and there still may be a change. If the men are returned as they now stand, th Anti-Socialists will have 19 votes in the Senate, the Socialists 16, and the Ministerialist ~ 1. giving the former a slight majority of :h? whole.

AntiLabor- MinisSocialists. Socin lists, terial. New South Wales .. 11 11 5 Victoria .. 10 4 8 South Australia 3 3 1 Queensland .. 4 4 1 Tasmania 5 1 1 West Australia .. 1 3 1 , Totals .. 32 25 - '17

New South Wales. AmiSocialists. . 15 LaborSocialists 7 Ministerial 4 Victoria . 10 3 10 South Australia . . 2 3 2 Queensland ... . 1 7 1 Tasmania ... . . a 1 1 West Australia . 0 4 1 Totals ... . . 31 25 19