STALIN'S HEALTH

Evening Post, Volume CXL, Issue 148, 20 December 1945, Page 10

STALIN'S HEALTH

RUMOURS DISCOUNTED

"POOR WISHFUL THINKING"

The announcement that Marshal Stalin of Russia is off on a vacation produced an extensive crop of rumours to the effect that his health is not up to standard. This, in turn, led to speculation as to the possibility of a race for the succession in Russia which, it is suggested, might produce intensive internal strains in the Russian Government, writes Joseph C. Harsch, Washington correspondent of the "Christian Science Monitor."

We have sought the best information available in American sources and come up with these answers::

There is no evidence available that the Marshal's health has changed of late. American officials have had two recent checks. One was at the Potsdam conference. The other was when Senator Claude Pepper, of Florida, was received by the Marshal in Moscow recently. At Potsdam he was said to have been in very good form indeed At the Pepper interview, no change was noted.

So the assumption at the State Department in Washington is that all the current rumours are based exclusively on the fact that he is taking a vacation—which isn't so strange considering the extent to which he personally supervised all Russian war activities. TROTSKY-STALIN RIVALRY.

As for possibilities of internal friction over the succession, it is pointed out that the Trotsky-Stalin rivalry which succeeded the passing of Lenin nearly tore the new Soviet State to pieces. Almost all Russians have an acute memory of that conflict. They are aware of the fact that nothing could be much more damaging to the prestige and power of the Soviet State than a repetition of any such interna] conflict. Further, the Soviet State has settled down and coalesced since the days of the Trotsky-Stalin feud. The ideological differences which existed then have largely disappeared. Doctrinal i issues have receded. I From these two considerations it is concluded that careful plans have been laid for an orderly succession in the event of anything happening to the Marshal and that a severe strain over the succession is one of the most unlikely of all possibilities in this world. So the rumours about Stalin's health, and also about trouble brewing inside Russia, are both put down to wishful thinking. "MOST UNDERSTANDING." They are also put down to rather poor wishful thinking. This is on the ground that knowledge of the outside world and appreciation of the factors in it are rare qualities inside Soviet Russia. Stalin himself may not be all that an average American would wish in the leader of the Soviet State. But he is said to have shown himself to.be the most temperate and understanding of Russia's current leaders. It is noted in this connection that it has for several years been very much easier to do business with Stalin himself than with the subordinate officials of his Government. Those whose task it is to conduct America's business with Russians tend to feel that their problems would become very much [ harder, not easier, if anything should remove Stalin from the driver's seat in Russia. He has been a hard and a shrewd bargainer. But he has learned a lot about other nations during the long succession of wartime conferences. He makes decisions and sticks to them. And he is candid. This includes a quality somewhat unusual in Soviet Russians. He can look back on the past and admit mistakes. TRIBUTE TO BRITAIN. It is said that at one of the Big Three conferences, in a relaxed and reminiscent moment, Prime Minister Churchill asked Stalin • why he had signed the pact with Ribbentrop just before the war began. Stalin's alleged reply was that he had misjudged Britain. He said he knew at the time that Britain would not be able to send as many divisions to France as it had in the First World War, or as many as promised He said he knew the British Air Force was weaker, much weaker, than the German. That being the case he had assumed that Britain would not really fight.

Therefore, he reasoned that he had no choice for Russia except to buy time for arming by making the deal with Germany over Poland. All of this was said, according to the account we heard, in a manner which was in effect quite a nice compliment to Britain. It implied that Eiritain had done a brave thing far beyond Stalin's estimate of its capabilities. He was wrong and* he admitted it. That is just one reason why those who have to do business with Russia ai'e not enthusiastic over the current rumours about his health.