CHANGE IN TONE

Evening Post, Volume CXXXVI, Issue 66, 15 September 1943, Page 4

CHANGE IN TONE

MEETINGS IN OTAGO

O.C DUNEDIN, This Day. The Otago and Southland areas will form an important testing ground of public opinion on election day, for the reason that any swing away from Labour may be expected to be reflected more clearly in these provinces (at least so far as the city seats are concerned) than in most other parts of the Dominion. The explanation lies largely in the fact that the Labour candidates as a whole cannot be considered strong, whereas the National Party has been able to assemble a muchimproved team to support those of its candidates who are already sitting members. % It cannot be suggested that there has been, so far, any evidence that Labour's supporters have turned, against the party in large numbers, and whether the reduction in the enthusiasm which they have displayed at public meetings is due to the restraining effect of war conditions or to any dissatisfaction with Labour's record cannot yet be determined. The fact remains that the atmosphere of political meetings generally has undergone a noticeable change, which is probably explained by the fact that Labour candidates have found themselves for the first time on the defensive, while the National Party candidates have lost no opportunity to attack and have been at least as-ready with promises as their. opponents. Labour candidates have confined themselves largely to a justification of their party's record in office, to promises of an expansion of its social legislation, and to warnings of a possible return, in the event of their defeat, to", the conditions ruling at the time of the depression, a period which, in view of the present war activity, is less clearly remembered than it was five years ago.

NORTH v. SOUTH ISSUE,

National candidates have been eloquent in their condemnation of the restrictions on and regimentation of the activities of the people, and on this issue there has been no lack of agreement with them among audiences. The introduction of a new issue which, whatever its ultimate effect may be, has certainly aroused considerable interest and a sympathetic response has given National candidates a useful talking point. It arises from a general belief that the South is lagging behind the North in progress, and the National Party's accusation is that this is in. part due to a lack of willingness on the part of the sitting Labour members to devote themselves to the interests of their province in Wellington. The main impression to be gained so far from the campaign is that the National Party, in view of the enhanced quality of its candidates and their ability to present a more constructive programme, has found the running a great deal smoother, whereas Labour has found the burdens of office a restraining influence on its ability to move audiences. It is purely a National versus Labour fight, for Democratic Labour and Independent opposition is so weak that it can be virtually ignored.

Labour's team at this election is unchanged, with the exception that Lieu-tenant-Commander P. G. Connolly has replaced Dr. McMillan as candidate for Dunedin West. Lieutenant-Commander Connolly may be expected to reap the benefit of the city's willingness to encourage young men in public life. He is a strong candidate with a good war record, but the advantages of his war service have been offset' by the National Party's selection of Brigadier A. S. Falconer as his opponent. Brigadier Falconer is a popular and highly respected figure and has devoted himself for many years to defence matters and the interests of ex-servicemen. Excepting the possibility of any marked change of heart among the electors, the chances may be said to favour the Labour candidate. DUNErjtf NORTH. Dunedin North can be regarded as .by no means a safe Labour seat, in j spite of the change in its boundaries i as the result of which it now embraces Port Chalmers. Mr. J. W. Munro, who has been a "silent" member, is opposed by a man who has proved a "find" for the National cause. He is Mr. A. L. S. Cassie, who has the advantage of popularity gained in the service of Port Chalmers in local politics, and his standing in the community and in business circles is high. He is a vigorous candidate who follows a policy of attack and has shown imagination and ability in the conduct of his campaign.

Mr. P. Neilson, in Dunedin Central, though one of the old school of Labour stalwarts, has not figured prominently in his party's Parliamentary career and cannot be considered a strong candidate. On the public platform he may suffer by comparison "with his National opponent, Mr. L. J. Ireland, a young business man who is conducting a vigorous campaign.

Dunedin South appears perfectly safe for the Minister of Defence (Mr. Jones), who is opposed by Mr. D. Murdoch, a sound type of ex-farmer.

The purely country seats may be relied upon to return their sitting National members, but in Oamaru the Minister of Health (Mr. Nordmeyer) is unlikely to lose ground, though a favourable impression has been created by his National opponent, Mr. T. R. Beatty.

Perhaps the most open contest will be that for the Invercargill seat, at present held by one of the less impressive Labour members, Mr. W. M. C. Denham. The opposition which the National Party will present has probably been strentghened by the selection of Mr. W. Bell as its candidate. Mr. Bell, who has been prominent in the affairs of ex-servicemen, has had experience as a farmer and has been prominent in educational administration. He is a sound candidate, who offers a serious threat to Labour's hold on this electorate