FIELD SURVEYED

Evening Post, Volume CXXXVI, Issue 66, 15 September 1943, Page 4

FIELD SURVEYED

YOUNG PEOPLE'S VOTES

O.C. AUCKLAND, This Day. General apathy in all circles —apart from enthusiastic party workersmakes it difficult to predict the result of the coming General Election. Indications point to the return of the Government, although there is a widespread feeling that the Labour Party on this , occasion will receive a "knock." but not of sufficient force to endanger its working majority. Cold and sometimes wet weather, and the fact that each night a party spokesman has been on the air, have kept thousands of people at home. They have heard political speeches in comfort.

It is difficult to estimate the effect on the poll of the large number of voters who will exercise the'franchise for the first time. Many of these young people, who have never worked before, particularly women, are now engaged in Essential industries. As a consequence they are thrown into daily contact with a different type of people from what would normally be their experience. They will naturally, be subject to influences. It may be said that they will have a greater personal interest in politics than people of the same type had in previous years. Most of them are earning "good money," and enthusiastic workers for Labour consider that a fair proportion of these voters will throw their lot in with Labour. DEMOCRATIC LABOUR. Close observers who have had an opportunity of surveying the whole province are of opinion that the only outside party that may possibly affect the general voting is the Democratic Labour Party, but they tone this off by declaring that the damage it may do is not likely to be material. On the other hand a Labour candidate, who holds a Parliamentary secretaryship informed an Onehunga audience that the Democratic Labour Party might cause Labour to lose one or two seats that otherwise might be won by small majorities. Mr. "Lee, however, is not the popular figure he was when he received his huge majority in 1938 as a supporter of the official Labour Party and a follower of the late Mr. Savage. The Independent Group and Real Democracy Movement are not taken seriously, and these candidates are having poor meetings. The only interrupters at all political meetings so far have been people connected with the social credit schemes.

For the 25 seats in the Auckland Province 104 candidates have been nominated, including 55 for the eleyen seats in Auckland's metropolitan area. Of these seats most interest centres in the Remuera contest. There are six candidates, but the real fight will be between the official National candidate, Mr. R. M. Algie, and the Labour candidate, Dr. Martin Finlay, private secretary to the Minister of Health, Mr. Nordmeyer. The Labour candidate's prospects appeared bright until the sitting National member, Mr. W. P. Endean, withdrew. The roll contains nearly .5000 additional names compared with 1938, due largely to State housing schemes. There are 22,527 names on the roll, a record for New Zealand. If there are any changes in the metropolitan seats, which is extremely doubtful, they will possibly be in Eden and Roskill, where the National Party supporters are most, active and optimistic. Mr. W. H. Fortune is the National candidate for Eden and Dr. R. G. McElroy for Roskill. Both candidates have had much better meetings than the majority of nominees.

In the rural constituencies there may be some changes although it is a little early to make predictions. The National Party has good prospects of winning Bay of Islands, held by Mr. C. W. Boswell for Labour. His' was a slender majority in 193P, when there were only two candidates. This year the Democratic Labour Party is in the field as well.

MR. BARCLAY'S CHANCES

Marsden may unseat the Minister of Marketing, Mr. Barclay, if the Demo-' cratic Labour Party 'can secure enough votes to make the split effective. At the last election Mr. A. J. Murdoch, a former Minister of Agriculture, lost by 557 votes. He is the official National candidate again and his prospects appear to be better than on the last occasion, when it was a straight-out fight. No official National candidate has been nominated for the adjoining electorate of Kaipara, held so long by the late Rt. Hon. Gordon Coates. Labour supporters think they can win this seat with Mr. J. S. Stewart. There is also an Independent and an Independent Nationalist in the field. It is far too early to attempt to forecast the result.

Indications are that there will be no change in the Franklin, Hauraki, Waikato, Thames, Tauranga, Hamilton, Bay of Plenty, and Gisborne electorates. Five of these seats are held by the National Party and the remainder by Labour. The Hon. W. Lee Martin, who won the Raglan seat at the last election, is not a candidate this time, his place being taken by a former Labour member, Mr. R. Coulter. There are four candidates and if the new parties do not affect the vote to any extent, there is a fair chance of Labour's return on account of the heavy mining vote. If there is a considerable "breakaway" vote, then Mr. R. J. Glasgow, Nationalist, should be returned.

Differences \of opinion exist in respect to the Rotorua and Waitomo seats. Mr. W. J. Broadfoot, National Party candidate for Waitomo, has always had a hard fight and this year it might 'be more difficult still for him because he has to cross swords with a new man, Mr. E. A. Waters, who is Labour's nominee. On the other hand, a Democratic Labour candidate is in' the field and this may affect the vote in Mr. Broadfoot's favour. Mr. A. F. Moncur, sitting member for Rotorua, and a Government candidate, is fighting a four-cornered contest. If the vote in the constituency is split to any extent by the Democratic Labour candidate it is possible that the seat will go to the National Party. Mr. Moncur's majority was 1648 at the last election and he has served overseas since.