Evening Post. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1941. BALKAN DRIVE "ALMOST CERTAIN"

Evening Post, Volume CXXXI, Issue 31, 6 February 1941, Page 8

Evening Post. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1941. BALKAN DRIVE "ALMOST CERTAIN"

If the authority of the Sofia correspondent of "The Times" can be relied on, it seems that Hitler is at last on the eve of showing his hand; and that he will strike at the Mediterranean not mainly through Italy'but mainly through Bulgaria. While Italian action is not to be altogether excluded from his plan, "German military preparations" that have reached "their final phase" indicate that Hitler's main thrust will be through Bulgarian territory, where he expects the Bulgarian army to be favourable, "its high officers being completely under German influence." The situation pictured in the news is: Phase 1, German troops crossing Bulgaria; phase 2, the Turkish army intervening to stop them; phase 3, Bulgaria represented in Berlin as appealing to Hitler for aid against the Turks; phase 4, war between Germany and Turkey, probably between Germany and Greece, possibly between Bulgaria and both Turkey and Greece. Such events will end the longstanding speculations about the where, when, and how of war in the Balkans; but the whither of this war will remain in the hands of Providence. Its intensity may diminish the Hitler threat to invade Britain, but may not diminish Hitler pressure on Yj.chy, which is reported to be culminating. The Hitler attitude to the Petain Government of France, the Hitler diplomacy in Spain, and the Hitler offensive through Bulgaria are all part of the Axis Mediterranean plan. Invasion of Britain is a thing apart. The chief unknown factor in the developing Mediterranean-Balkan melodrama continues to be Stalin. If Hitler were to strike through Greece to the Aegean Sea at Salonika, that might be a quick way to win for Italy the GreekItalian war in Albania. But, for Hitler, the biggest prize would be seizure of the Turkish Straits, farther east. Possession of the Turkish Straits would give a great army Qpportunity for military action either in Asia or in Europe. If Hitler, besides possessing a great army in command of these historic waterways dividing (at the same time uniting) the two continents, also controlled the Mediterranean • Sea, his capacity to do harm would be infinite. But, strive though he does in Vichy, Hitler is still a long way from having under his hand a united Italian-French fleet. For many months now he has been aiming at two sea power objectives, a greater and a lesser; and if the greater (a French-Italian naval combination) should elude him, he still will make a bid for some measure of control in the Black Sea, where submarine bases operating from Rumanian ports have been a constant feature of the Nazi designs in Rumania. In that Sea might occur one of the first clashes of a German-Turkish war, hence the importance of this London message dated February 4: The British staff officers who have been in Ankara having talks with the Turkish staff today left Istanbul to inspect defences in Thrace, the Dardanelles, and some of Turkey's naval establishments.

The extension of the naval war from j the Mediterranean Sea to the Turkish Straits and to the Black Sea is big with fateful possibilities. ' Naval defence of her Black Sea coast might turn out to be vital for Turkey; and the course of operations in the Black Sea and in European Turkey would profoundly influence a waiting Russia—if Russia continues to wait while Hitler fights for the strategic Straits. The serious statement (quoted above) of the Sofia correspondent of "The Times," who thinks that a German move through Bulgaria is "almost certain," is in a category different from (and more authoritative than) the category in which must be placed the reports that "Japanese militarists" envisage a

Japanese attack on the East Indies coinciding with a Hitler invasion of Britain, also that Japan is* securing a naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Annajn. These reports contain one statement ("Russia has become an extremely important factor") which, if true concerning East Asia, is doubly true in the Balkans theatre. If Russia can halt or advance aggression in Asia, she is still more potent to halt aggression in the Balkans-Mediterranean region, if she so wills. And the Sofia and Vichy news indicates that it is in this region that the immediate danger lies. Would a Balkans drive occur if Stalin said No?