NAZIS MUST MAKE THE MOVE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIX, Issue 22, 26 January 1940, Page 8

NAZIS MUST MAKE THE MOVE

It must be remembered, however, that it is the Nazis who will have to do the invading in the Balkans and that it is only after they have moved that Britain and France will be free to act. Before they begin a new war in the Balkans the Nazis will have to be satisfied that they, have something to gain by taking over Rumania and will have to make Hungary -• acquiescent or obtain right of way for troops through Russian Galicia, which they now appear to occupy. Only two things appear likely to drive them to this step. One is a menace to their line of communications up the Danube, the other is Rumanian oil. About ; both of these the Germans have been suffering bother. The Rumanians, along with other Balkan States, have proved difficult about releasing tonnage on the Danube unless other tonnage is promptly sent to them from the Reich. They have been troublesome over oil, first refusing to allow their tank cars to pass the frontier, then cutting deliveries, then arguing about the exchange rate. Just what is the position today remains somewhat obscure. A new trade treaty was concluded in mid-December, not on unfavourable terms for Rumania. There have • been two changes of Government since the war began, and the country is holding its, own economically, making large sales of wheat and oil to the Allies, and receiving cash for them, against the Nazi offers of barter. .

But Rumania is unhappily placed. It is in a situation where, strategically, it must be dominated by Germany if her sources of supply are to be safe. It owns raw materials of the utmost importance—in addition to the important oil it has bauxite (aluminium ore), coal, iron ore, and manganese. It is ringed with hostile neighbours, three of which want back territory which they lost after the last war. Thus any move against Rumania might have the same results as the Czech partition and call out Hungarians, Russians, and Bulgarians to claim their share of the spoil. Yugoslavia has been detached from a policy of nebtrality, and Turkey, Rumania's friend, i? over the sea. There is no doubt that the new imperialist Russia has its, eye on Rumania and that the matter of Bessarabia will arise in time. However, there are those (Hungarians among them) who believe that King Carol has accepted a German guarantee of his country's frontiers with Hungary and Russia, a situation which would create very interesting possibilities. If the Soviet Union believes this and means to reach the Bessarabian matter before Germany shows any sign of collapse, Stalin's brisk pace on the Baltic may be explained. Both Berlin and Bucharest, it may be said, strenuously deny that such a pact exists. But at the same time the Rumanians have been rapidly moving in the effort to pacify their minorities (who are unlikely to be pacified), and to strengthen their defences (which could bear with strengthening) .