Evening Post. FRIDAY, JANUARY 26, 1940. OIL OR WAR-RUMANIA'S ORDEAL

Evening Post, Volume CXXIX, Issue 22, 26 January 1940, Page 6

Evening Post. FRIDAY, JANUARY 26, 1940. OIL OR WAR-RUMANIA'S ORDEAL

One of the menaces in the reported German-Russian agreement is the alleged German penetration of part of the recently Russianised Poland, whereby the Nazis gain that access to the Rumanian frontier which was denied them when the Red troops marched across Nazi-stricken Poland in September-October. By the end of October a Red Russian occupation1 presented a barrier between the Nazis in Poland and their Rumanian goal. But Berlin-Moscow diplomacy, it is now alleged, has lifted that barrier. The barrier has been lifted, it is said, to the extent that the Nazis will conjtrol the railway that connects the Rumanian frontier (through Galicia) with Nazi-occupied Poland and with the German railway system; and their control (says the Paris correspondent of the "New York Times") will involve the presence of troops in "the proportions of an occupation." In short, it is alleged that the Nazis, by agreement with the Soviet Government, will now have a military corridor (forty miles wide) and a railway direct through formerly Polish Galicia to the Rumanian frontier. They will now be able to demand from Rumania what supplies they like, including the ever-necessary oil, under threat of instant invasion. The Rumanian "Government is under treaty or written agreement to protect the supply of certain quantities of its export oil to other Powers, including Britain, France, and the United States. But Hitler will stand on the Rumanian frontier brandishing his sword. Will Rumania, notwithstanding Britain's guarantee against aggression, be compelled to give him foreign-allocated oil? Some of the oil is not only allo-, cated for export to the countries j named, but is owned by companies of those countries- —British, French,

American, etc. Under Tuesday's date it was cabled that Britain and France had given diplomatic warning to Rumania that "the Allies will not tolerate forced sales to Germany from English and French companies.'' There is a Rumanian-American company which annually produces 6,385,000 barrels; and the United States Department of State, according to* Washington, will act if the Nazi pressure is extended to that company's output. Once again—as always in the Hitler story—it has become (through the reported NaziSoviet Pact) an issue of might versus right, with the local balance of hitting power heavily in favour of might. Bound one way in contract and in honour, pulled the opposite way by fear of becoming a bloody sacrifice like Poland, what will Rumania do ? The dramatic intensity and the world-tragedy inherent in this conflict will be appreciated only if people think of oil as they do of aeroplanes—in terms of war. The world watches with awe the struggle of the belligerents to outstrip each other in numbers of, aeroplanes; the struggle for oil supplies is not less vital—in fact, it is more vital, for oil is the motive power not only of air.war but of nearly all war. A world war can be won or lost simply through oil. The world at large may well await on tiptoe the issue of the ordeal through which Rumania is passing, for her national life may disappear temporarily if she refuses Nazi oil demands; and, if she does not, hundreds of thousands of other people's lives will be destroyed by the Nazis with the aid of Rumanian oil.

The heroic course, if the crisis matures, would be for Rumania to fight and to effectively destroy her oil-wells, as she did in 1914-18. Meanwhile, unofficial reports are adding drop after drop to the cup of wrath, which may presently fill to overflowing. It is stated that the Nazi-Soviet understanding includes, on its economic side, not only Rumanian oil but Galician oil, also complete exploitation by the Nazis of other parts of the Russian transport system besides the railway referred to, along with the placing at the. Soviet's disposal of Nazi trans-, port and technical experts, "including even military technicians." At what point Soviet aid to the Nazis will involve war by the Allies on Soviet Russia is not clear; but a definite point is given at which Nazi Germany will enter the Finnish war—"she will intervene if Britain and France try to help Finland either directly or through Norway or Sweden." Apparently Allied help to Finland and Russian help to Germany are in different categories; and in the Nazi philosophy help to a belligerent should be one-way help. The above

reports, as stated, are unofficial, but should be read in conjunction with the Moscow radio statement that the Soviet and the Nazi Governments "have reached the fullest and most complete understanding regarding their foreign policies." When Stalin threw the Red Army between Hitler and the Rumanian frontier he was determined to make Hitler pay a price . for lifting the barrier. What is that price? "La Victoire," of Paris, says that it is the partition of Rumania- —the Soviet to have southern Rumania, the Nazis to have northern Rumania and the wells, and Hitler to proceed to Turkey and the Near East. To check the new menaces, "L'Ordre" suggests that the Anglo-French guarantee of Rumania against Nazi aggression should become an Anglo-French-Turkish guarantee of Rumania against both Germany and Russia. These Paris reports are reinforced by a Swiss correspondent of "Le Journal," who declares that a demand on Rumania for all Rumanian export oil has been presented by Germany in writing—a step which would bring the whole issue into the melting-pot.