PRIME MINISTERSHIP

Evening Post, Volume CXXVII, Issue 91, 19 April 1939, Page 9

PRIME MINISTERSHIP

MUCH MANOEUVRING

FOUR IN THE LISTS

SHORT TENURE PREDICTED

(From "The Post's" Representative.)

SYDNEY, April 13,

Political manoeuvring for position for the coming fight for the Prime Ministership left vacant by the death of Mr. Lyons is in full swing. The Ministry, headed by Sir Earle Page, can be nothing but a stop-gap arrangement and the actual leader of the Government will be chosen by the United Australia Party when it hc"."j its presessional meeting on Tuesday.

The names most freely discussed are those of the Attorney-General and Minister of External Affairs (Mr. Hughes), the former Attorney-General (Mr. Menzies), and the Treasurer (Mr. Casey). The Minister of .Defence (Mr. Street) is a fourth candidate who will enter the lists.

The tragically unexpected death of IMr Lyons has le|ft no clear line of succession, the logical heir to the leadership, Mr. Menzies, having renounced j the deputy leadership when he resigned from the Cabinet. The appointment of Sir Earle Page as Prime Minister was the only step possible to the! Governor-General until the U.A.P. is able to elect a new leader. Although Mr. Hughes is the senior U.A.P. Minister in the Cabinet, he is not the leader of the party. MR. MENZIES. The dominant consideration is that the man selected must be acceptable to the Country Party, since neither of the parties of the Government can retain office without the co-operation of the other. The outcome will depend largely on how easily the U.A.P. and the Country Party can come to terms and how far either is prepared to force the position if they cannot agree peacefully. Their readiness to reach a I

settlement will doubtless be conditioned by the seriousness of the international view, irrespective of personal or party political advantage.

If the Country Party remains irreconcilable, Mr. Menzies is immediately ruled out, because he is at loggerheads with Sir Earle Page and his followers, and cannot, without loss of prestige, depart from principles for which he has already surrendered high office. If the U.A.P. insisted on his leadership, there would be serious differences that would ultimately wreck the coalition. The U.A.P., in view of the international situation, will probably not force the issue to that extent. SIR EARLE PAGE'S ATTITUDE. I Sir Earle Page has already given an j intimation to the U.A.P.—it amounts, almost to an instruction—that his party' would support a Ministry headed by j Mr. Casey or if necessary, by Mr. j Hughes. A piquant feature is given to | the situation by this intimation. Mr. Hughes resigned from the Prime | Ministership in 1922 when Sir Earle j Page refused to form a coalition Gdv- j ernment with him. The Country Party would not join forces with the National Party then until Mr. Bruce had succeeded Mr. Hughes. In 1929 Mr. Hughes took a prominent part in wrecking the Bruce-Page Government. These events have not been forgotten. It is believed, therefore, that if Sir Earle Page, as stop-gap Prime Minister, makes a recommendation to the Governor-General he will name Mr. 'Casey before Mr. Hughes. But before that he will have to have the sanction of the U.A.P.

Sir Earle Page's attitude is believed to have actuated the strong moves made by the New South Wales members of the U.A.P. to have Mr. Hughes elected leader of their party. Sponsors of the move are going to great lengths to gain support. Practically every Federal member who came to Sydney to attend the funeral of Mr. Lyons was approached and asked where he stood. The campaign was launched before the weekend, and has been pursued with increasing vigour ever since. The fact that there is such an open canvassing for Mr. Hughes is doing his cause harm and may drive members into the camp j either of Mr. Menzies or Mr. Casey rather than attract supporters to Mr. Hughes. Another factor that has aroused some antagonism is the persistence with which Mr. Hughes's supporters have pressed the argument that Mr. Hughes's appointment would gain the party more political advantage than the appointment of either of his opponents. To some members this has suggested a disposition to place political considerations above the more'important principles involved. SOLUTION ONLY TEMPORARY. Mr. Casey's prospects depend on, firstly, whether Mr. Menzies is prepared to back down on the National Insurance issue and so enable him to work amicably with the Country Party, and, secondly, whether the New South Wales members' campaign for* Mr. Hughes fails. Mr. Hughes is old, Mr. I Casey is young. That, too, is a factor. Despite his 74 years, Mr. Hufhes is still vigorous, but there are signs that his amazing reservoir of strength and mental alertness is rapidly emptying- •} In the final issue, it would not be surprising if a compromising influence placed Mr. Casey in the highest political office his country has to offer. But whoever is elected may be only a temporary Prime Minister. Examination by U.A.P. headquarters of the problem of finding a leader to succeed Mr. Lyons has confirmed the belief that there is no man now in Parliament who shows prospects of holding the present Government together for a great length of time. The immediate problem is to select a man who can combine warring elements within the Government ranks into a working team Which can carry on until a natural leader emerges. Plans have been Shaping for some time for the entry of the New South Wales Premier (Mr. Stevens) into Federal politics, but succession difficulties in New South Waies held up this move. These.plans may be hurried forward to enable Mr. Stevens to become a Federal member as soon as possible and the Federal U/.A.P. leader at least before the next election. ' Another factor is that rank and file members are interested in a suggestion that the High Commissioner in London, Mr. Bruce, should be induced to enter the Federal arena. Further efforts to attract Mr. BruCe will be made. It is believed that in certain circumstances Mr. Bruce would be willing to return.