CABINET-MAKING AND CRISIS

Evening Post, Volume CXXVII, Issue 91, 19 April 1939, Page 8

CABINET-MAKING AND CRISIS

A few weeks ago the Lyons Government resigned itself to_ a retreat on the Social Security front —that is to say, to amending the National Insurance Act so as to reduce its scope and cost, possibly restricting it to the health proposals only. The driving force behind the.; proposed amending of the Act was*i the Country Party (junior partner? with the United Australia Party iv the alliance on which the Lyorn/s Government rested) and its Leader, Sir Earle Page, who had acted as Prime Minister in Mr. Lyo r«s's absences. The resistance to this curtailment of the national insurance scheme was led by Mr. Menzies, -alien Attorney-General. These two Ministers, Sir Earle Page and Mr. Menzies, fought it out in Cabinet, in caucus, and at a meeting off the two parties; and the resignation of Mr. Menzies was put in after this joint party meeting had adopted Sir Earle Page's view, which, summed up, seems to be that the "recession" and the considerable fall in Australia's export prices., plus the international crisis and the 'resultant huge bills for defence, make curtailment of the national [insurance scheme an economic necessity. At the joint party meeting Sir Earle

Page's figures carried more conviction than did Mr. Menzies's faith in a principle.

Minus Mr. Menzies, and held together by Mr. Lyons, the shaken Commonwealth Cabinet then began the retreat on the Social Security front—a movement which no one liked but which was accepted as fate. Then the unexpected death of Mr. Lyons undermined the whole structure, and Sir Earle Page assumed the Prime Ministership, in terms of acceptance indicating that he regarded his position as temporary, pending the election by the United Australia Party of a Leader of the United Australia Party to succeed Mr. Lyons. From that moment, interest centred in the leadership decision of this party, the senior and more numerous of the two governing —in fact, the predominant partner. If, the U.A. Party elected the Rt. Hon. W. M*. Hughes (Minister of External Affairs) or Mr. Casey (Federal Treasurer) it was anticipated in Press circles that no obstacle would arise to the continuance of the compromise with Sir Earle Page on the curtailment of national insurance; but it was also anticipated that the whole insurance dispute might be reopened if the U.A. Party elected as Party Leader Mr. Menzies. And now the U.A. Party has done just that, although the majority for Mr. Menzies over Mr. Hughes was slight. Interest now centres in the meeting between the two protagonists in the insurance dispute, Sir Earle Page and Mr. Menzies, and in its results., Can they co-operate, and on whats

lines?

If a Page-Menzies compromise on* disputed points proves to be unworkable, or if the international crisis intensifies rapidly, or if both 'these things happen, it is possible that a situation favourable to Mr. S. M. Bruce (High Commissioner fior Australia) may arise. Whether su/ch a situation already exists is doubted. Is the crisis yet ripe for a National Government led by Mr. Bruce, power to him to make his own selections (not necessarily caucus selections) from any party for the filling of other Cabinet posts? The attitudes of the U.A. Party, the Country Party,' and the Labour Party to such a Government ha-ve not yet crystallised, and great changes could come quickly. The general unanimity, or practical unamimity, that Mr. Bruce regards as the 3basis of his Prime Ministership has j^et to be demonstrated: still hotter fires in the international furnace may be needed to weld Australian opinion on true national lines. Besides, the national insurance dispute— which is not of Mr. Bruce's making —should be got out of the -way before he comes, for a man who may have to carry the defence burden in a world war should be freed of internal embarrassments. The people to settle that dispute are the immediate disputants, Sir Earle Page and Mr. Menzies, who were to have met last night. Whatever their decision, the Federal Parliament's session, opening this week, is big with possibilities either of failure or of success.