WORLD IN ARMS

Evening Post, Volume CXXVII, Issue 75, 30 March 1939, Page 10

WORLD IN ARMS

THE EMPIRE'S DANGER

IS NEW ZEALAND READY?

POSITION OF SHIPPING

(By the New Zealand Defence

League.)

The peril in which the British Empire stands today is emphasised by the acceleration with which Great Britain is proceeding with her prodigious programme of re-armament and the unprecedented effort which Australia is making in preparing for possible contingencies. That that peril is both grave and imminent cannot be disputed, and in the .event of another world war breaking out within the next few months there arc few competent authorities with a correct knowledge of the present state of the Empire's defences who would venture to predict- the outcome. The situation, frankly, is far more serious than it was in August, 1914, and it is high time that the people of New Zealand aroused themselves to a sense of their responsibilities. NEW GROUPING OF POWERS. These are serious statements to make, but unfortunately they are only too well founded. In 1914-18 Germany, backed by Austria-Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria, kept the whole world at bay, and, completely knocking out Russia and Rumania, nearly won the World War, both navally and militarily, in 1918. Early in that year, by means of her unrestricted submarine campaign, she almost brought the Allies' to their knees, notwithstanding that she then had almost the whole of the world's naval power concentrated against her-^the British, American, French, Italian, and Japanese navies, and those of the lesser naval Powers. At the same time, in MarciiJune, 1918, she went very hear to winning on the Western Front. She gave in only when her supply of man-power ran out, and internal revolution, largely influenced by the naval block' ade, totally incapacitated her. CHANGE TO GERMANY'S ADVANTAGE. What- is the position now? Thanks to our policy in setting an example to the rest of the world by proceeding with disarmament —a policy which only one first-class Power, America, imitated —the position has changed to Germany's advantage. She has re-armed on a colossal scale, has occupied the Rhine area, and completely fortified her Western front, has swallowed Austria, Czecho-Slovakia, and Memel, is backed apparently, navally and militarily, by Italy and Japan, and appears to have certain other European States under her sway. Germany and Italy alike have nationalist Spain under heavy obligations to themselves. Germany is conscripting her 80,000,000 population, and six months ago arrived at the stage when she considered that she was in a position to defy the rest of Europe, and placed her rapidlyincreasing armies actually in the field— and, be it noted, this time with a full array of tanks and all the other devices of mechanical warfare. That was in September last, when her action resulted in the "Peace of Munich" and in Germany's "peaceful absorption" of Sudetenland with all its first-class artillery and other military equipment. Now, in repudiation of her own signed agreement with Great Britain, France, and Italy, her armies ai*e again on the march, and, acting .in concert with Hungary, have recently taken Czechoslovakia with all that State's vast military and aerial equipment, the great Skoda armament works, gold, and other assets. She has likewise absorbed Memel and is now menacing Rumania—in defiance of the whole world, which, apparently, is unable to do anything more at present than to express moral indignation. Under treaty with Great Britain Germany is now building a navy onethird of Britain's-strength with submarines up to parity. This development -is of the greatest importance when it is remembered that Germany's naval power will .be wholly concentrated in the North Sea, while Italy, possibly, may be able to secure command of the Mediterranean, and Japan, which has been building beyond the 3-5-5 Washington Treaty ratio, will be most formidable in the Pacific. PERIL OF OUR MERCANTILE MARINE. Let these factors be duly weighed up and see where we have got to. The only answer can be that, until the Empire's defences are placed on an adequate footing, the British Empire, in the event of war breaking out in the immediate future, is in a position of real danger. But that, again, unfortunately, is very far from being an accurate appreciation of the true position. Since 1914-18 a new and most formidable form of attack has been developed—aerial bombing. In this today Germany is admittedly supreme, supreme to the extent that, backed by the formidable Italian air force, the Berlin-Rome axis dominates the pre-sent-position in Europe. Germany in this sphere is not only supreme now, but her production capacity is greater than ever. Will Great Britain, France, and America, the democratic Powers, be able to catch up and overtake her? Will they be given the time in which to do so? Upon the answers to those two quetsions posisbly depends the fate of the British Empire and of the whole world. NEW FORM OF ATTACK. It is this factor, indeed, that makes the present situation so perilous for the British Empire. The peril lies, not only in the bombing of London and other great cities, but also in what advantage Germany's aerial superiority, especially with the element of surprise, will givs her in attacking British shipping, aerodromes, and arsenals. Remembering what happened in the unrestricted submarine campaign in 1917----18, even with the improved anti-sub-marine devices that have been developed since, no one can say what will be the outcome of attacks on our shipping today with modern submarines acting in concert with aerial superiority. If the issue goes in favour of Britain well and good, if not—! Assuming only partial success on Germany's part the position created will be serious, recent cables from Home having informed us that the British Mercantile Marine today is now 2000 ships short of what it was in 1914. SECURITY OF UNITED KINGDOM. The outlying posts of the British Empire have been clearly warned as to the position. Speaking in the House of Commons on March 7 last year, the Prime Minister. Mr. Neville Chamberlain, uttered these momentous words: The corner-stone of our defence policy must be the security of the United Kingdom. Our main strength lies in the resources of man-power, productive capacity, and endurance in this country, and unless these can be maintained, not only in peace, but in the early stages of war, when they will be the subject of continuous attack, our defeat will be certain what-

ever might be the fate of secondary spheres elsewhere.

Our third objective is the defence of British territories oversea from attack, whether by sea or land or air—taking them in order of priority they are not as vital as the defence of our own country because, so long as we are undefeated at home, although we sustain losses overseas, we may have an opportunity of making them good hereafter. WERE WE READY IN SEPTEMBER? This means clearly that New Zealand must be prepared to defend her own shores. Were we ready when the crisis came in September last? If not, are we any more ready now to meet a situation such as Mr. Chamberlain has envisaged? Regretfully it must be answered that we are not. Is the Government to be blamed for it? The correct answer is that is is responsible, but the just answer is that in a democratic counI try. when it is a matter dealing with defence policy, no Government can go ahead of public opinion. It is that, public opinion which requires development and expression now.