"TENTERHOOKS"

Evening Post, Volume CXXVII, Issue 61, 14 March 1939, Page 9

"TENTERHOOKS"

WORLD'S ANXIETY

BRITISH OPINION

LESS PESSIMISTIC

(By Viscount Samuel, Formerly Minister of the Interior in Great Britain.) (World Copyright 1939 by Co-opera-tion.) In the last months of 1938 a deep anxiety was widespread in England. Everywhere there was talk of imminent war. Many people anticipated a third coup on the part of Germany, aimed at the Ukraine, as the next step after the annexations of Austria and Sudetenland. This"' time there would inevitably be war; first in Eastern Europe, but necessarily involving the West. Other rumours circulated freely. Holland was to be threatened, or even attacked, with a view to the rape of some, or all, of her colonies. Nazi propaganda in Switzerland and Southern Denmark was thought to portend similar action to that which had been so successful in Czecho-Slovakia. The German trade drive in South-Eastern Europe seemed to be nothing else than ! . an effort to obtain war supplies in good time. Simultaneously the open threats of Italy against France, the loudlyexpressed claims, in the Fascist Assembly and in the officially controlled Press, to territory that had been in French possession for generations or even for centuries, intensified the anxiety. Sensational newspapers printed reports of steps in Germany preliminary to mobilisation as though they were facts. People who claimed to be well informed sometimes gave the actual date fixed by Herr Hitler for the launching of the campaign. ATMOSPHERE OF CRISIS. Let it be remembered that many forces make for alarm and few for reassurance. The Governments of Germany and Italy, engaged in. a powerful thrust for power and territory, have an interest to keep tho rest of the world on tenterhooks. They are more likely to achieve their purposes, or some part of them, in an atmosphere of recurrent crisis than in one of quiet. The Governments of France, Great Britain, and the other democracies are bound to dwell on the seriousness of the situation. That it is serious is undoubtedly a fact. They are obliged to take energetic steps to provide for their countries' defence. They have to call upon their nations for much activity and heavy sacrifice. Even if they think that the chances are against war they cannot say so with any emphasis, for that would invite the accusation of complacency in the face of a danger that is real. Further, at any moment events might prove them wrong. The Oppositions also in the democratic States naturally dwell upon the perils of the hour, blaming them upon the weakness or incompetence, of the Governments and appealing to the electors to dismiss those Governments before it is too late. ENCOURAGEMENT OF ALARM. Everywhere and always the Press gives prominence to what is alarming. And that is to be expected, for this is what stirs the reader's interest. The placid is the dull, and the dull is unread and unbought. The Stock Exchanges as well are bound to look upon the gloomier side of things. Investors as a rule play for safety. If the chances of war are one in three, it is the one unfavourable chance which rules the markets. Anxiety in the financial world, with falling prices, spreads a spirit of pessimism. Nevertheless, in spite of all these unfavourable factors, there has been visible in the last few weeks a marked change in British opinion in the other direction. From time to time prophets arise who proclaim the approaching end of the world. By means of elaborate calculations, based on obscure and mystical texts in the Bible, they fix the precise month and day. The credulous feel greatly alarmed. There have been records in history of flights of masses of people in terror of the imminent apocalypse that has been foretold. But the fatal date arrives; it passes, nothing has happened. There is a corresponding relief. We have something of the same feeling, now that the winter, which was thought to be the appointed time of catastrophe, is safely past. THE CALMER VIEW. I would briefly summarise the reasons for this change in the atmosphere. On the whole, Herr Hitler's speech in January, awaited with so much anxiety, was reassuring. The attitude of Poland towards a German advance upon the Ukraine is seen to be a factor of the first importance. It may well be that the abandonment by Germany of any such adventure —if indeed it were ever seriously contemplated—may have been due to Polish representations that the establishment of an independent Ukrainian State, under German influence. Would be so unacceptable to her that she would be obliged to join Russia in resisting it. On calm reflection, it is being realised more and more in England that the German trade drive in South-east-ern Europe is justifiable on economic groundSi That area is a natural outlet for German manufactures and a natural source for German supplies. After all, the countries of South-east-ern Europe always played that part in the pre-war period. Great Britain while anxious to take her share in the trade of that region, and reacting against attempts to monopolise it, would never have thought of taking exception to German activity there, had it not been for the threatening concentration of German industry upon armaments. In themselves the journeys of Dr. Schacht and Herr Funk are seen not to be grounds for apprehension. There is a growing conviction that the peoples of Germany and Italy are so intensely opposed to a general war being provoked by anyone that, powerless and silenced though they are, this deep-lying sentiment cannot be minimised by their rulers, nor its consequences ignored. The very clear intimation of the British Prime Minister that, if the i vital interests of France were attacked from any quarter, Great Britain would stand by her side with all her resources, cannot be without its effect, upon the Chauvinists of Italy. Mr. Chamberlain's declaration was approved by the whole of the British neoplfe; Not a single voice in any responsible quarter was raised against it The fact that France has overcome yet another economic and Parliamentary crisis is a further factor on the side of European stability and peace.! So also is the rapid increase in the defensive forces of Great Britain. The armament programme is at last becoming effective. AMERICA'S INTERVENTION. Not less than any of these factors is the moral intervention of the United States. The solemn warning against j all aggressive action, uttered by the head of the most powerful nation in j the world, with the inference to be