WEATHER RESEARCH

Evening Post, Volume CXXV, Issue 146, 23 June 1938, Page 17

WEATHER RESEARCH

« I AN AUSTRALIAN HOPE SEASON FORECASTS SPECIAL BUREAU PLANNED (From "The Post's" Representative.) SYDNEY, June 9. Experiments now going on at the solar observatory on Mount Stromlo, near Canberra, may make it possible to forecast general rains or abnormal drought conditions well in advance. The establishment of a special research division of the Meteorological Bureau to develop this seasonal forecasting of weather, on the basis of Antarctic conditions, offering the hope of providing farmers with advance knowledge, is to be undertaken by the Department of the Interior. Such long-range weather forecasting would mean a revolutionary change in methods. It would involve discarding the theory that tropical influence is the primal factor in Australian weather. The Minister of the Interior, Mr. McEwen, said that long-range forecasting, which would enable primary producers to prepare for abndrmal weather, had been looked upon as an experimental undertaking up to the present, although it had been one of the main factors influencing the support of Antarctic expeditions, and the bureau would be asked to bring it as far as possible into a practical field. "I cannot hope for immediate spectacular, results, but I regard this work as of vital importance, especially as it appears that a great advance can be made by a rigorous analysis of Australian meteorological data now available," Mr. McEwen said. "This in itself would yield valuable information concerning weather cycles, especially in drought-stricken areas, and would enable the various theoriet which have been advanced to be tested properly. "Long-range forecasting has proved' disappointing in many respects, but I am impressed by indications that there has been some real promise in certain lines of investigation," Mr. Ewen added. "In this country of variable rainfalls, the economic benefit which would accrue from its success is so great that I regard it as a definite public duty to take steps for the testing of every rational theory. Although any rapid achievement is unlikely, experts agree with* me that the expenditure will be fully justified. Certainly, no greater contribution could be made by the Government to the welfare of primary producers than the ultimate success of. the Department of Research." EXPERIMENTS IN PROGRESS. Exploration of the upper atmosphere has indicated that there is a parallel variation between conditions there and those on the ground. Certain experiments are being carried out in conjunction with the radio research authorities. The Commonwealth will be divided in meteorological zones, one or more of which will fall under a State branch of the Federal meteorological service. If the present experiment is successful, the Department of the Interior will expand the service by establishing more weather bureaus. "Beyond three or four days, we have as yet no reliable rriethodT-reither mathematical or physical—for making a forecast," said a Sydney meteorological expert; "We cannot help farmers much at present. It is very like a fluke if we are right over a period greater than a week. A forecast more than a few 'days ahead largely depends oh statistics of seasonal averages. Even then, the probability of accuracy is limited to a generalised statement." The decision to establish the new bureau has been made on reports from advocates of the Antarctic theory, including Dr. E. Kidson, chief meteorologist of New Zealand. Dr. Kidson told the Science Congress in Melbourne in 1934 that Australian meteorologists knew nothing of forecasting. He said that Australia's "weather capital" was in the Bay of Whales. Australian experts say the difficulty is ft lack of continuous data from the Antarctic.