RIDING A TIGER

Evening Post, Volume CXXIV, Issue 87, 9 October 1937, Page 9

RIDING A TIGER

BEFORE 1914 AND TODAY

THE EUROPEAN SITUATION

CAUSES OF ACTION

It is now twenty-three years since .he European war broke over the ;orld with the invasion of, Belgium nd the march on Belgrade (writes ,'ount Sforza, former Italian Foreign iinister, to the "IVlunch ester kiardian"). flow many people in our Vestern capit'als'bad been clear-sighted nough to say ,to themselves five ✓eeks earlier,' wiien the news came' •f the assassination at Serajevo of he heir to the throne of Austrialungary, that that meant war? In , Europe even more torn by hatreds nd suspicions than that of 1914 it 3 worth'while to recall certain of the ess-known episodes of that period, pisodes of such folly and inhumanity hat we used to say, with too much onfldence, that we should never again witness their like. So many books have been written . m Francia Ferdinand of Haibsburg3ste, the victim at Serajevo; he has empted writers as the enigmatic side if a historical hypothesis. But what s the worth of their witness? scarcely any of them knew the man, >r~ his family, or the atmosphere in vhich he lived. I knew the atmp;phere, and knew Francis Ferdinand limself, but I hesitate to pronounce i judgment. Yet I cannot, but think hat a reform such as could alone lave 'transformed imperial Austria nto a living federation of satisfied leoples under the aegis of the Crown nust of necessity have been a work human sympathy, of intellectual jenerosity, and of far-seeing vision, vhile Francis Ferdinand's embittered -icart was filled only with aversions ind suspicions—sterile feelings. FIVE YEARS EARLIER. Five years before the crisis which lis assassination produced another struggle between competing influences lad brought Europe almost to : the .•erge of war. This was in 1909, at the ;ime of the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria-Hungary, an annexation decided on in defiance of treaties. Three years later, in 1912, speaking to the Bulgarian statesman Daneff, Francis Ferdinand said: "The Serbs are convinced that I am their worst enemy. They are mistaken: it was I who, at the time of th.e Bosnian crisis, prevented the annihilation of Serbia." At that time \ Francis Ferdinand was certainly in favour of peace. This was because - he felt that be would need the support of the Slavs af Austria when he became Emperor and set out to destroy, the hegemony of the Magyars, whom he detested. But 1 do not think it is likely that, even as Emperor, he would at • all times have found the strength to resist the "Aulic Council" in its pressure fo» war as the only means of' preserving the privileges of the directing classes, privileges which, in Austria as in Hungary, were threatening to slip from their hands. t In France, in England, and in Belgium (where it is not as well known as it should be that Liege was invested by powerful Austrian batteries, although Vienna had not thought fit to declare war on King Albert) there are not a few people who have preserved a warm corner in their hearts for the old feudal Austria. These groups are a little too ready to forget that just a year before Serajevo the Austrian diplomats coolly informed allies, Berlin and Rome, that she intended to attack Serbia. "A DEFENSIVE ACTION." Merey, the Austrian Ambassador at Rome, added that he was sure that Italy would recognise that this was a "defensive action," and that the clauses of the Triple Alliance. Treaty would therefore operate in favour of the Vienna Government. It was only the' indignant reply made by Giolitti, the Italian Prime Minister, that brought the controllers of Austro-Kuiigarian policy to the realisation that the time was not ripe for this criminal stroke. Eleven months later the Serajevo assassination provided the diplomatic and military authorities at Vienna with the happy pretext (as they regarded it) for which they had been anxiously waiting. It was the Imperial Minister of War himself, General Baron Krobatin, who, when visiting Prince Furstenberg, the President of the Austrian Upper House, in the spring of 1914, declared to him: "If another opportunity comes for settling accounts Serbia we must not let it slip as we did in' 190?.". About the same time Count Berchtold, the director of foreign policy of the Dual Monarchy, said: ''I do not want to make the same mistake as Aerenthal in 1809; it will not be I who will prevent a final settlement with Serbia at the first opportunity." ~ Those who think that once he had become Emperor Archduke Francis Ferdinand would have been capable of changing these idea's and passions are relying* I I think, pn the secular authority , enjoyed by the sovereign in Austria; they overlook the fact that the loyalty to the monarchy of the upper classes is nowhere better described than in the old proverb of the Prussian Junkers: "Let the king be absolute, so that he shall do as we wish." , WOULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. Even if in 1914 the sovereigns had' been less passive than the Emperor l Francis Joseph and less indiscreet in their utterances than William 11, it would have been easy for such men as Krobatin, Berchtold, and Conrad von Hotzendorf to stage a good Vcident which, thanks to "patriotism" and "prestige," would have made it impossible for anyone to arrest the mad adVenture. Between' 1914 and 1937 (or 1938?) the situation has grown even worse. Why? Because in the place of the old dynasties we now have demagogues. Before 1914 the war camarillas had laboriously ,'to persuade the dynasts to ri'sk everything in, the sanguinary game of war—and, as we saw, one of .them, the man assassinated at Serajevo, Was no partisan of war-malcing. The demagogic leaders of "today, on the other, hand, are well aware that, destitute of legitimate authority as they are, they can only "retain their places with the aid of theatrical moVe3, cach more of a gamble and more of a peril than its predecessor. The Chinese have a - picturesque ideogram defining the men who seem omnipotent to the cowardly but in reality have no alternative but to continue the fatal course oh which they have embarked, until the final disaster that destroys them. They are "riding a tiger." The old rulers were seated on thrones; the demagogic "leaders" of today are riding a tiger, and the one thing they cannot do is to hold it in. A PROBLEM OF' VISION. All the more reason why those who are for peace above all should not close their eyes. And to repeat the tragic errors which brought a European war in 1914 is to close our eyes. The principal cause of the cocksure■ness of Vienna and Berlin in 1914 was the conviction of the two autocracies that there was no limit to the timidity, and the patience of the Entente Governments. . Is it possible to hope that public op,jnion in the free countries, small 'great, will at last realise that it

was largely the many retreats of the Entente that led to the two Central Empires in 1914 to imagine that they could go to any length, and that everyone would give way before their bluffing and threats? If so, it is still possible to prevent the repetition of the great crime. It is not a problem of force, but a problem of seeing clearly.