BOOM IN TRADE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIII, Issue 59, 11 March 1937, Page 12

BOOM IN TRADE

BRITISH INDUSTRY

BANKERS'. ..OBSERVATIONS

'Evening Post," March 11

There is every appearance of a boom in industry and trade in the United Kingdom, but how much .is due to the huge and rapid expenditure on armaments it is difficult to saj. For 1936.1; British imports were the hishest for j five years, and the exports the highest for six years; but there were falls ; on earlier years in the shipments of ', some of the, larger staple exports in , eluding coal, herrings, manufactured : tobacco, machinery, cotton piece goods. : wool tops, iron and steel,manufactures, : and-, chemical dyes, although the de- ■ cV-:i- iJTf volume of some exports was [ compensated by increases in their , value.- ■ : ■■ : Employment of insured persons was ; approximately 11,132,000 (excluding '. agricultural workers) setting up a new ; record. Full-time wages had increased. The shipbuilding industry showed consistent improvement all through the.1 year. The output for 1936 was better than any attained for several . years, • and there is every indication i that' the figures for the present year ; will be equally satisfactory.' ; ■ How, does this prosperity appear to bankers, as trained observers of the directions of industry and trade? Extracts from recent speeches of chair- < men of some of the .leading British ' banks will show. • ' Mr. Edwin Fisher. Barclay's Bank: ■ "The general recovery which we are^ < now experiencing undoubtedly owed J its initial impetus to the wise, action * of the Government which took the : courageous step of placing our na- £ tional finances on a sound basis and J thus restoring confidence in sterling. I not only at home, but also abroad." E The Hon. Reginald McKenna, Mid- J land Bank: "It may be that last year's !• rate of expansion may not be main- I tamed. but we can at least anticipate ' with .-confidence that business will be I fully as good in 1937 as in 1936. If 5 to these favourable prospects at home « could be added the stimulus of gen- I eral appeasement in international af- ' fairs, the possibility of which seems at the moment .a little nearer, we could be assured of a still wider extension of prosperity throughout the country." Mr. Michael J. Cooke, National ~ Bank: "In estimating the situation, it " would not be wise to overlook the possibility that in certain directions f saturation point may. be approach- r ing. The outlook for 1937 may be £ promising, • but the detailed elements in the-picture may be changing." COMMODITIES AND CKEDIT. ° Hon. Rupert. Beckett, Westminster i ( Bank:—l see no convincing evidence that a boom is yet developing. Prices so far have not risen unduly, profiteering is not rife,, and there is no shortage of commodities such as have been associated with booms in the past, h Credit remains plentiful and cheap. Mr. Colin Campbell, National Pro- p vincial Bank: —Our re-armament programme is certainly a temporary matter and though we can be sure that it -^ will keep industry busy for some time .^ the day will come when its effects will |j taper off and we shall go back to the q normal demands of our defensive D forces. T) Mr. E. B. Orme, Martin's Bank, Liver- r. pool:—Higher prices for raw materials £ mean increased cost for manufactured A goods, and this, in turn, will affect the cost of living. The position is not one * to be viewed with easy satisfaction, and lV will require careful handling if we are to stabilise our prosperity and " avoid the usual results of too rapid expansion. Moreover, it is bound ulti- q mately to influence this country's monetary policy, as the normal out- _^ come of continued trade expansion, with ; a general. rise in costs on the <-~ scale we are experiencing, is without doubt dearer money. q NEW ZEALAND'S INTEREST. A .New- Zealand's prosperity, must be D bound -up with that of Great Britain £ because 85 per cent'; of the exports of £ the Dominion find their market in the Is United, Kingdom. The position is clear C< to the Canterbury College Department C of Economics, which in its recent re- El view of industry and trade (issued by Ei the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce) Fi refers firstly to the rise in value last year of New Zealand's principal ex- G ports. For most of the, world the iJ year's price trend was definitely upward. New Zealand wool prices were t ; 33 per cent, higher for 1936 than for 1935, but last December's index was X; still about 20 per cent, below the levels jj, of 1928 and 1929. Dairy produce, meat, jj and other pastoral produce prices were j>, all somewhat higher in 1936 than in 1935. -re

Import prices, changed little, wholesale prices, influenced chiefly by wool, rose a little, and. retail prices, which are moving upward, reached 40 per cent, above their 1914 level.

"All these" movements," states the "Review," "depend very largely on conditions in the overseas, and chiefly British, markets for our exports. "British opinion now considers that a mild boom is in progress there. It is due partly to general recovery, but is helped out by expenditure on rearmament. It is generally expected to last through 1937, but there are some fears that it may be succeeded by a recession in business."

• price. p-c, p.a. . . . £ . s.. d. £ s. d. Wellington. :n^4/l^-..'.. Ptl03 0 0 8 17 ID rarmers' Auction, £5 q q g fl \ Z. Guarantee Corp. 0 6 0 4 17 2 tarra Fall* • * 2 3 3 4 l'J o inthony Horderu .. 1 0 6 1 19 0 Broken Hill Pty u * 4 9 3 2 6 0 Consolidated Brick .. 0 10 2 o 18 8 )ru g Houses. Aust. ; 1 9 6 4 2 9 Dunlop-Perdriau .. y.* 10 4 4 18 4 ilectro. Zinc, pref., y~ , 3 8 b - lb 4 ilectro. Zinc, ord., y* 3 3 3 . lb < i. J. Coles * o 6 b 2 6 11. raranaki Oil 0 5 0 — JounfLyell V....... V 2 14 0 ,.-3.14,0 Unofficial list — : , Voolworths Ltd 8 4 0 — Auckland. iovt. Bonds, 4 p.c, , 15/2/43-46 t 101 5 0 3 19 1 uick. Harb., 4'/i p.c, 9/7/39 a. 101 0 0 — loin. Bank of Aust. u. 0 19 6 2 19 9 fat. Bank X.Z. o.s. 3 2 0 3 4 5 }rey Valley Coal ..076 — Luekland Gas 12 1 4 19 7 Jevonport Ferry .... 105 t lX Zauvi Timber 1 3 3 5 7 6 National Timber .... 0 10 6 0 10 5 Sroken Hill Pty. u.* 4 9 3 2 16 0 oloninl Sugar 43 .0 0 2 18 1] Consolidated Brick . 0 10 1 3 19 4 ;iectro. Zinc .... y* 3 7 9 3 19 0 ilectro Ziuc, pref. j'.* 3 8 6 2 13 4 'armers" Trading, A pref 12 6 4 19 6 ' r . J. Coles * 560 2 72 iilne and Choyce, deb * 0 16 10 4 15 0 'aranaki Oil 0 4 9 — Foohvorths (N.Z.) .750 2 .4 i 'alisman Dubbo 0 8 6 — iroken Hill South .. 2 IS 3 5 7 3 Iount.Lye.il 2 13 9 3 14 5 lawang Tin 0 13 6 — Unoflicial list— Poohvorths Ltd. .... 8 3 '6 — oromandel Gold ...'. 0 16 — Christchurch. ort. Bonds, 4 p.c, 15/2/43-46 + 101 12 6 3 IS 10 ank of X.Z 230 4 13 0 om. Bank of Aust. u. 0 19 5 3 0 1 "at. Bank X.Z. o.s. 3 3 0 3 .3 6 \ 7estport - Stockton Coal 02 1 — \Z. Breweries 2 19 9 2 10 2 roken Hill Pty. u.* 4 9 3 2 16 0 roken Hill Pty.. con. 4 3 3 — onsolidated Brick . 0 10 1 3 19 4 iralop-Perdriau .. y.* 10 5 4 17 11 lectro. Zinc, ord. y.* 3 7 6 2 19 2 lectro. Zinc, pref. y* 3 8 7 2 IS 3 . J. Coles * 5 60 2 72 aranaki Oil 0 4 7 — olonial Sugar 43 0 0 , 2 IS 1 tmeral Industries .. * 113 7 7 0 Wellington AHuvials, 2s paid 0 6 2 — -ount Lyell 2 13 9 3 14 5 [ount Morgan 0 IS 7 — awang Tin 0 13 8 • — Unofficial lift — elf ridge (A/asia), new 1 IS 0 — rool-«-orths Ltd S 4 0 — 'oohvorths (W.A.) .. 7 6 0 — Dunedin. 3m. Bank of Aust. u. 0 19 5 3 0 1 oward Smith .... * 14 0 3 2 6 oldsbrough Mort .. 1 17 9 3 14 2 .Z. Loan & ilerc, (ord.) 46 0 0 — 'osgiel AVoollen 10 0 0 4 0 0 ilonial Sugar 43 0 0 2 IS 1 ectro. Zinc, ord. }-.* 3 8 0 2 IS 9 ount Lyell 2 13 9 3 14 5 iwang Tin 0 13 10 — illespie's Beach 0 16 —