ROOSEVELT POLICY

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 67, 16 September 1936, Page 8

ROOSEVELT POLICY

AFTER THE ELECTION

CONSTITUTION AND COURT

TIME AS A WEAPON

Nearly all independent political experts, now agree that Mr. ■Roosevelt's re-election in , November is -yirtuaUy certain, writes the New York correspondent of.the "Manchester' Guardian." Onp. ho longer hears speculation .on the outcome, of the voting;. instead, an effort is made to analyse the .probable policies of the Democratic .Administration, domestic and foreign, during,, the next four years.

One of the most pressing questions -vith which Mr. Roosevelt will have to oeal if he is returned to 6ffice in "the autumn is the Supreme Court's narrow j •merpretatioh of the Constitution. It- •'■' "rbe remembered that the" two chief i measures of Mr.' Roosevelt's" first"-'ferrn,' the National Recovery Act, and:';the Agricultural A \ jstmerif ■"•'■'A'clj'-;were both overturned by the Stfprem¥ Court in decisions which revealed rthe"*bit* ter hostility of a majority of the'justices to almost everything that the "New Deal" has attempted; -For a long time many students of politics believed that Mr. Roosevelt would- ,be forced to make his campaign this year on the issue of a:constitutional amendment which would put his programme beyond the reach- ,of>.-the-. Supreme Court's conservative members.;-.. The Republicans, who consider-/that^ such an effort would be fatal to his chances, waited anxiously for this- attack ..- to begin. but Mr. Roosevelt, who .perr ■haps agreed with them about the dangers of such a proposal, flatly refused to be drawn into the trap: Although he commented bitterly upon one of the hostile Court decisions, he. resolutely refused to admit that the Constitution needs revision. It is a tribute to his political, skill that today nearly * all-his enemies have abandoned .-the charge that he ."proposes to tinker with- the Constitution." ■•; ..NEW. APPOINTMENTS.';' ■ ;"■ ■ It is possible that..Mr. .Roosevelt's calm in the face of the Supreme Court's destruction of his.w.ork resulted,from his. Study• of table.; The nine.!ineii4^r&J6f'i.'.tlie;,.,C.6urJ..,.'are'. all elderly men. Actuarial"'; statistics indicate at. least a possibility,'that, time and change .will remove three "pf four of their number during the iiejet, four years, and that if .this happens two orthree of those whose places must be filled will be members of the present conservative majority of .fiye or six. If the President could, appoint as "many as two .additional liberals to -the Bench most of .-his troubles'would be, over. ,

It is also possible, Of course* .that Mr. Roosevelt is waiting only until he is safely in office again before" proposing modifications in the Constitution. By tradition going back to the days of George Washington, no American President can hope for more than two terms of four years each. It has .often been true that a man who has been re-elected is far more independent and courageous in his second term than in his first.

There is no doubt that despite the bitter disappointments caused "by the Supreme Court decisions the President is still determined to carry out, in one way or another, the dominant policies of his Administration. It is believed that the aid to be given the farmers lor their efforts in soil conservation will be as valuable as the old Agricul; tural Adjustment Act, and. perhaps more so. Upless, therefore, the Court should declare unconstitutional.-, .the, present law also,.this problem.may;.be' regarded as settled. As for. the National Recovery Act, it 'was v on the whole a failure in operation even be^ fore it was declared void by the "Court. It has raised prices materially •without increasing wages or providing additional employment in anything-liko the same ratio. There is reason to believe that Mr. Roosevelt, if reelected, may decide to leave to -.the Labour unions the major task of improving wages and. working conditions, using the forces of the Government to help, the workers to obtain collective bargaining. This^wiD. be difficult enough, in a country where less than 10 per cent, of all workers are organised and where public opinion in many communities sees no difference between a trade unionist and a Communist. MORE BLOWS FOR THE "NEW DEAL." Several major pieces of legislation enacted under Mr. Roosevelt have still to come before the Supreme Court. After its overturning of the Guffey Act, to regulate the coal ■ industry, there is a strong chance that the Court will also upset the Wagner Act, which guarantees collective- bargaining; the- Wheeler-Rayburn" Act;" which controls public-utility holding ■ "companies;■'and the law'setting' -up; the Securities ;and Exchanges Commission, to -restrict■■■ fraudulent'/-stock-market practices; ■■• While the Court'gave Kin'e favourable decision '.in regard' to-; the Tennessee Valley Authority, the:poirit was a technical one, and1 it is -quite possible a new decision of an opposite character may be given if the whole question is brought up. v Many legal authorities consider that the. Social Security Act, providing unemployment insurance, old age .pensions, and assistance to certain under-privilegel r groups, may be destroyed by the Court.;'A' series" at shattering- decisions 'sucti ?as these, .coming early in'his second term, might goad the President into" seeking a new constitutional amend* ment, despite his great -reluctan'cfe :' 'to make such a proposal. '' ' ' ■ '■ ''■

In the field of foreign affairs; jvoiie should underline strongly' Mr; Roosevelt's' increasing attention to- relations among the' States in1- 'the •'western hemisphere. Some exaggerated Statements have been made abolit^hls proposal fo» a new "Pan-American League of Nations" which would' be a rival to the Gerieva body. It" is true, however; that Mr. Roosevelt is eager to have a firm understanding among the nations in this hemisphere under which-they would unite in resisting encroachment directed against one or more:- o£ their number by any European ;or -: Asiatic Power. He' also ■'. desires to'have the rights of neutrals codified and clearly defined/and hopes to make/ a "beginning towards this at the Inter' American Conference at Buenos- Aires in -the autumn of this year. ■•'.'■; . , CANADIAN CO-OPERATION; He is eager to'obtain the ccrop.eration of Canada in these activities, despite the fact that she is not a member of. the Pan-American Union t being excluded chiefly because of her relation to the British Commonwealth. If' Mr. Roosevelt's, plans in regards to,-Lajiii America are successful, .he hopes that a large increase in trade between-' the United States and its southern neighbours will ensue, since-lingering hostility towards the "Colossus of., the North" has hindered such trade in the past. As regards-Eutcjpe''::inv:g«nei'al i the policy of the American Government will continue to be ? one'-of •aloofness. Left to^ himself, Mr/Roosevelt, would welcome a policy- under which he cduld distinguish between aggressor,, and- victim In: war, and suspend' trade './and other relations with the- former .only: The sentiment of Congress;.and. of'general' public opinion,'is, TKiwev.er'i op-posed-to Ihis and .has'been-: hardened by- the failure of. the. Leagued,efforis to stop4he Abyssinian war through the

use of sanctions. The present American neutrality law prohibits all sale of munitions to any belligerent and severely restricts trade in other com-, modifies. If 'it is changed, such changes will be in the direction of greater isolation, not less. THE STIMSON DOCTRINE. The American Government has never repudiated the "Stimson Doctrine" of not recognising changes in territorial status brought about by force. It is administered, however, in a highly pragmatic spirit and .is by no means a corner-stone of Mr. Roosevelt's foreign policy. ir he is returned to office, iio| important chances may be expected inthis or in Iho general policy towards .tliu Far East during the next ' four years. As is well known, Mr. Roosevelt is in practice a "big navy" man. The naval and military establishment of the United States has been increased at an enormous rate and one which seems to some persons out .of proportion to the necessities of a purely defensive armament. - The President has repeatedly stated that he is prepared to re- | duce the United I States navy to. any degree, provided \ the other Powers i will consent to similar and: simul- ' tanebus reduction. -At various times he has suggested a horizontal cut of one-fifth, one-quarter, or one-third.: In jthe absence of such reduction he is determined to maintain, the . existing 5:5:3 ratio among Gr^at Britain, the United States, and Japan. He > approved the measui-e which recently passed the -House of Representatives appropriating £108,000,000 for naval building during the coming year, and apparently accepts with equanimity the fact that the rcurrent- and future American military- establishment .is now costing, well over £200.000.000 I annually. , ■