POPULATION

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 65, 14 September 1936, Page 9

POPULATION

NEW ZEALAND'S NEED

SLOW NATURAL INCREASE

AN URGENT PROBLEM

The slowing down in the natural increase of population of New Zealand during the last fifty years has reached a point—revealed .by the Census this year—which has not attracted the attention it' deserves under the changed conditions of tHe modern world with aggressive' nations demanding room to expand. The facts and figures of population, taken from official statistics, are graphically presented by Mr. A. E. Mander in a striking booklet entitled "To Alarm New Zealand," with the express purpose, as the title -indicates, of rousing the public to an understanding of the position into which,the country Ims drifted. "The purpose of this booklet,1' the author declares at the outset, "is to reveal the nature of the.disaster which threatens New Zealand." ■ First of all, there are the figures for the annual birth-rate for New Zealand, which has dropped from 41.2 per 1000 in the period 1876-80 to 16.9 per 1000 for 1931-35 and 16.1 for 1935. Mr. Mander crystallises the statistics in the statement" that "there are only two babies born nowadays for every five who were born sixty years ago." Even more"significant js a table showing that in 1882 when the population of New Zealand was 500,000 the number of births was 19,009; in 1911, when the million mark was reached, the births totalled 26,354, while last year, when lha population was over a million and r. half, the births had receded to 23,965. Mr. Mander summarises this by saying Ihat "there are actually fewer children bom in New Zealand annually than there were twenty-five years ago." A (able giving the number of births each , year from 1922 to 1935, with the corresponding rate per thousand, showslhat the decline in the birth-rate is almost uniform throughout the period and therefore cannot be attributed to temporary conditions, such as the recent economic depression. ~■•■ DECLINE IN BIRTH-RATE. Pursuing his analysis of vital statistics, Mr. Mander shows that, whereas in 1881 there was one baby a year among every three married women (under the age of 45), today there is only one. baby among every eight. He comes to the conclusion from a further examination of the figures that apparently "about 24 per cent, of all marriages nowadays are childless," and that "about 22 per cent, of the married couples are responsible for bringing into the world approximately 54 per cent, of those who will constitute the next generation in New Zealand." He finds that "62 per cent, of all married couples now average less than one child per couple," and that the remaining "38 per cent, of the married couples of today will be responsible for 75 per cent, of the next generation." The natural increase in the population of a country, excluding immigration, consists of-the balance between , births and .deaths. While the number of births is showing an actual, decrease —regardless'of the rate per thousand— the number of deaths annually is increasing. In 1935 there were 12,216 deaths as against 23,965 births, and the net increase was 11,749, as against 18,029 in 1922. The rate of "natural increase"' per thousand has declined from 14140 in 1922 to' 7.91 in 1935; or nearly half. Mr. Mander's conclusion is this:— Asraming that this decline continues more or less at the same rate (and there is no reason to suppose that it will not), then it is evident that, apart from future immigration, New, Zealand's population 'has how almost reached its limit . . . For all practical purposes our population will come to a standstill within roughly the next nine years. . . . The population will never reach 1,650,000.. THE CONSEQUENCES. The political consequences of a stationary population about that figure, with powerful nations demanding room for their surplus people, are strongly emphasised by Mr. Mander, who says: "If 'might' is the only 'right' among nations, then surely we need a much greater population in New Zealand—to develop the might to defend it." On the other hand, the economic consequences of a rapidly-growing population, with a higher birth-rate and a constant stream of planned, large-scale immigration, are rosily pictured by Mr. Mander in the form of greater prosperity all round. .No •'apecial "scheme" or "plfcn" is suggested, but Mr. Mander discusses, in the limited space at his disposal, the questions of raising the birth-rate and large-scale immigration. He dismisses the use of propaganda as a means of increasing the birth-rate in New Zealand, but holds out some hope on the economic side. "Probably," he says, "the only effective means of increasing the birth-rate would be the provision of substantial financial aids," but he adds this rider: "An increase of income does not in practice lead people to have more children —unless it is made conditional on theij doing so." Difficulties at once present themselves. "Parents," says the author, "would need to qualify—by'producing, at the time of marriage, proof that they were physically and mentally up to the standard. . . . The birth-rate is already much too high i' one section of the community—among Jhose who are least likely to have normally intelligent and normally healthy children. The Dominion does not need mere' numbers. ... A huge sum would be involved. In fact, it would involve the redistribution of at least one-eighth of the present national income. One hesitates to suggest so tremendous a change in our national economy. But is there any other way. . . . ?" SUGGESTED REMEDIES. If the birth-rate could be raised to the 1911 level, it would mean a net "national" increase in the population of about 25,000 a year, but Mr. Mander deems a minimum of 100,000 increase necessary. The balance of 75,000 would be secured by large-scale immigration. The great bulk of these, in Mr. Mander's plan, would need to be absorbed by the cities and secondary industries, "to be used in the expansion of urban industries and all types of services." Mr. Mander argues that it would be "necessary to provide directly 'productive* employment for only about 700 out of every 2000 of the new bread-winners —which means 700 out of 6000 of all the newcomers." The remainder would eventually be absorbed in the consequent expansion of other businesses and services.-Fur-ther details are given as to the type of immigrant "selected and properly balanced" and as to finance, which Mr. Mander estimates at £7,000,000 for each 75,000 new citizens." The financing, Mr. Mander submits, "would not present any insuperable difficulties," but, he adds, "the first necessity is to make New Zealand realise that something must be done. . . . This is the ■uestlon of paramount urgency for Few Zealand to face." Concentrated physical training has teached so high a pitch in the R.A.F. feat candidates never remain more than ten weeks. at the depot at Uxfcrldge. i