FRENCH POLITICS

Evening Post, Volume CXX, Issue 9, 10 July 1935, Page 9

FRENCH POLITICS

DANGEROUS INDECISION

MENACE OF THE "STREET"

(Written for "The Post" by Aubrey L. Williams^) ; :•. •'•'. PARIS, June 10. The political scene in France is one that distresses both Frenchmen and those foreigners who wish France well. Cabinets come and go with a frequency astonishing to~-those accustomed to the not so infrequent earlier upsets. The present is tlie tenth Government since the current Parliament was elected just three years'ago. M. Flandin's Administration appeared to be fairly well set for a French Government, but a "hemorrhage" developed in the body of gold. The precious metal began to flow out of the vaults of the Bank of France in quantities alarming to financiers and public alike. The Premier asked the Chamber of Deputies for special powers •to deal with the situation. M. Herriot could not shepherd the left wing of the Radical-Socialists into the "Aye" group, and the Government was defeated.

M. Bouisson, long the extremely capable President of the Chamber, and, incidentally, once a famous Rugby three-quarter, formed a Government, and demanded full powers in his turn. He also received a "Non," and resigned after four days' reign. "Where. MM. Flandin and Bouisson failed, M. Laval has succeeded. The Chamber has accorded to him "enlarged," not "full," powers wherewith to handle the crisis. He has been instructed neither to devalue the franc nor to go off gold. At the moment M. Laval's appears to be a hopeless task. His advent at the head of the Cabinet aroused little if any enthusiasm. Politicians and public are pessimistic. It is not believed that the franc can be saved. But the doughty Auvergnat is nothing if not courageous, and he will put up a valiant fight for the franc and for his country. . There are many Frenchmen who think that this desperate' clinging to gold, or, at least, to the full franc, is a wrong policy. In the main the country's present troubles arise, because French manufactured goods cannot be sold at their price—about 25 to 30 per cent above world prices. ' Unemployment is a natural consequence, and I have heard-it stated in a: responsible quarter here that two,and a half millions lack work. . The . export trade falls steadily. Last year the visible adverse trade balance was £100,000,000. Formerly the:visible adverse balance, to a great,extent, was covered by invisible credits, such as the profits from the tourist traffic, and by the interest derived from French capital invested abroad. , , Tourist traffic is now reduced to a minimum, and foreign investments are less profitable than they once were. The consequence has been an automatic outward movement of the gold reserves, a movement lately accentuated by French and foreign distrust of the franc. • • ~,..,. The Budget has, long been in deficit. The actual discrepancy is unknown; it is the subject of constant discussion in the Press as to whether the deficit amounts to ten, fifteen, or twenty millards of francs. If the latter figure it is about 40' per cent, of the Budget —£600 000,000. Even if the deficit is a quarter of the Budget, or £150,000,000, it is enormous. Excessive expenditure on State employees is one of the factors overburdening the finances. One in every 26 French men, women, and children lives at the State's expense, as against one to every 56 in Italy, and one to every 76 in Germany. Then there is military expenditure. As you re^ member, one defence vote- alone amounted to £60,000,000.'; The-service of the State debt also calls fdr immense sums of money. M. Laval's task of balancing the Budget and, at the same time, remaining on gold can thus be, appreciated in all its seriousness. Politically; it is impossible to increase taxation. If levied it simply would not be paid. There is plenty of money in the country. Over . £1,000,000,000 is in circulation, and the notes are secured by gold up to 73J per cent. Direct taxation is easily judged by present British standards, but indirect taxation, that on sugar, petrol, matches, tobacco, etc., is very high. Three-quarters of the present petrol prices represents taxation. What, then, is M. Laval to do? If he cuts the pay of State employees or drastically reduces their numbers there will be strikes, and if He touches war pensions the,, ex-soldiers' organisations will come "on to the streets."* If he goes off gold or is eventually forced; despite his promise, to devalue the franc, the vast army of rentiers—those holding Government bonds—will show their resentment. The problem might well daunt the bravest. "The Street" —comprising the Croix de Feu and other "patriotic" organisations—is ever a menace. "The Street" is indignant at the inaction of the politicians, who are held in great contempt. On the other hand the Front Commun; the united Socialists and Communists, keeps a wary eye on Colonel de la Rocque, the leader of the Croix de Feu, and his merry men. The.former may be armed, have the tacit support of the army, and. probable access to the arsenals in the event of trouble, but, though .unarmed, the-Front Commun has a weapon not to be despised in the form of the general strike.

It is not to.be understood that things have come to such a pass in France that the- possibilities outlined just above are likely to materialise. The French are a very sane people really. The French body, if not the body politic, 'is healthy. The crisis is not ■ a Budget but a political crisis. M. Tardieu has declared that France has two enemies, Germany and political corruption. The latter calls for immediate destruction if the democratic State "is to survive. But for the distrust of the "strong man," who might be a .budding Napoleon, resort might have been made to some such personality ere this. He might yet appear, but, it is to be hoped for the sake of democracy that he will be a parliamentarian, equipped, perhaps, with a more pliable instrument than the present Constitution, or the same Constitution worked to its letter, which actually permits a dissolution.

The weakness of French politics is reflected amongst France's allies. Poland would never have gone over to Germany had France been strong internally, nor would Yugoslavia now be flirting with the same growing Power. The Little Entente is threatened with disruption—a serious matter for European peace. The worst may be averted.