Evening Post. THURSDAY, JUNE 16, 1932. "CANNOT" OR "WILL ' NOT" PAY ?

Evening Post, Volume CXIII, Issue 141, 16 June 1932, Page 10

Evening Post. THURSDAY, JUNE 16, 1932. "CANNOT" OR "WILL ' NOT" PAY ?

Disappointment at Geneva, vague hopes at' Lausanne, and a strange blank at Berlin are the outstanding features of the'latest reports from Europe. In the first two' of these there is nothing surprising, but in view of the virtual dismissal, of the Bruening Cabinet more than a-fort-night ago, and of the grave consequences that we were led to expect,' the silence of Berlin is remarkable and might even *be] considered sinister, On the sth June the "Sunday Express"—certainly not a very high authority—without relying 'on the rumours of revolt, described the political condition, of Germany as "unparalleled tension, with'the possibility of a revolution or dictatorship^ or both, in the coming.week." On the same date there was reported to be a consensus of opinion among observers -in Berlin that "the whole machinery of the body politic is out of gear." It is,^-of course, possible that the machinery has since become so violently out of gear that a censorship has suppressed the details, but in that event the fact that there was a'censorship would at least have leaked out. More reassuring evidence is the fact that the fear that the.'German 'upheaval would result in the postponement of the Lausanne Conference has not been realised. Jt will be held on the previously arranged date, and Germany will be there. i

How''much the miseries of the world during the last five months would have been alleviated if the Reparations Conference could have been held at the date originally fixed, in January and France had shown herself not entirely unreasonable, is a "might have been" which it is now useless to discuss. But, as the Hoover moratorium expires at the end of this month, it is obvious that, if a conference which was postponed from January on account of the French elections had been .postponed from June on account of the elections in Germany, the disaster might have been immeasurably increased. It is also possible to find some compensation for all the" losses that the world has suffered from the long delay. A full share of those losses has- fallen upon France, and her sufferings may, though it is far from certain that they will," enable her to contemplate 1 with a little less harshness the sufferings of others. Another circumstance which may dispose all parties to a ' more reasonable temper is the imminI ence of the. disaster which will be penally of further delay. When President Hoover'submitted his proposal for a year's moratorium on the 20th June last, the 30th June, 1932, seemed a long way off, and even in January it was not so very close, but with only a fortnight left, even the most dilatory member lof the Lausanne Conference will surely see that there is no time to lose, and it might be hoped, though none too confidently, that even the 'most stubborn dieLhard in France cannot contemplate with equanimity the prospect of ,the adjournment or extension of the Conference into July with nothing done.; !

So far as Germany is concerned, though the enforced retirement of Dr. Bruening left the country with a ludicrously unrepresentative Cabinet which could not afford to face a division.in the Reichstag, it cannot be said that on the Lausanne agenda this military-looking stop-gap Cabinet will not represent public sentiment just as thoroughly as its predecessor could have done. It might on the contrary be said that, in so far as the Papen Government represents a swing towards autocracy, it stands for an even more aggressive opposition to the further payment of reparations than that of a genuinely Republican .. Administration. ' But thesentiment is-so strong and so universal that, except in point of expression, there is really no substantial distinction to be drawn between the two. It was with the knowledge that ''rarely have the German people been so united as they are on the

reparations problem" that the German delegation was reported to be leaving for Lausanne yesterday. '.'.N,o more tribute," wo were told, is tho slogan of all political parties, and any Government daring to pleugo itself to sign an agreement to pay tributo, as_ reparations have always been called m Germany, is certain to. be swept gut of existence by popular anger. Tho Chancellor, Herr yon Papen, realises this well, and intends' to make it absolutely clear that Germany cannpt pay reparations any longer. But a welcome addition to that message shows that the Foreign Mm

ister, who heads the delegation," is fully alive to a point of expression which a Junker team might have been glad to ignore or defy; Baron yon Neurath carefully avoids using the phraso "Will not "pay," which, is-what the German declaration actually amounts to.

The distinction between "cannot pay" and "will not pay" may from one point of view .appear a subtle one. The one formula will certainly yield" no better dividend than the other, and therefore from the standpoint of spot cash the two are identical. But'as a matter of manners and tact there is a wide difference between the two. France was justly incensed when by an unfortunate error Dr. Bruening was at first represented as having said that Germany "will -not pay reparations," and to what extent, if any, she was placated when she learnt what he had actually said is doubtless beyond calculation. But to any impartial judgment the difference is vital, for to say that Germany will not pay would have been to repudiate the Treaty.under which she undertook to pay, whereas in saying that Germany could not pay Dr. Bruening was merely repeating what, so far as immediate payments are concerned, had already been said by the report of the Young Plan experts which he was discussing, and in which the French expert had concurred. Herr Hitler certainly appreciates the distinction,' for he was hammering away at Dr. Bruening up to the date of his resignation to get- him to substitute the formula of defiance and repudiation which, we are thankful to see, even the Papen Government is not prepared to do. Germany has no right either to treat an inconvenient treaty as a scrap of paper, or to, demand'its amendment. But she has a right to ask that she shall not be thrown into bankruptcy and chaos for failure to pay what the expert advisers of her, creditors say that she cannot pay. 'And seeing that if Germany, falls half Europe , will .fall too, and. the troubles of the whole world will be indefinitely increased, it "Will be criminal folly if at the eleventh hour she is not given at least such temporary relief as will avert disaster.