THE PENDULUM SWINGS

Evening Post, Volume CIX, Issue 125, 30 May 1930, Page 8

THE PENDULUM SWINGS

On the 18th March, when the Naval Conference had been two months in session, the. British Liberals suddenly became aware of its existence and found in the fact a reason for not pressing their amendments to the Coal Mines Bill. . About a month later the "Times" had some happy comments on the position:

The House of Commons cannot forget Mr. Lloyd George's professed anxiety over the Naval Conference. The secret that lies behind that anxiety, if secret there be, is well kept. It is not unlikely that, so long as this Parliament lasts, the Naval Conference will serve the delicate purpose of covering up tli9 Liberal tracks in the coal.

Some support is given to this conjecture by one of yesterday's London messages. Though the Coal Mines Bill and the Naval Conference are now both out of the way, the division on Mr. Baldwin's unemployment amendment shows that the Government can still rely on the benevolent neutrality of the Liberals to save it from destruction. The Government's majority was only 29, but it was sufficient, and they were under no anxiety, as they knew that the majority of the Liberals would abstain from voting. Mr. Lloyd .George must be admitted to be playing his cards well. He is using his control of the balance of power to increase the obligations of the Government to the Liberal Party, and especially to himself, so that when the break-up with which Labour is threatened by the intransigence of its Left Wing lakes place, the outlook for the Liberals, and especially for their leader, should be' very bright. But so far mere is no evidence that the tactics which are doing so well at Westminster are achieving a corresponding success in the country. Thie result of the last two by-elec-tions indicates both 'that the tide which in spite of all l^fe Government's blunders had for more than six months been setting so strongly in its favour has since been reversed, and that the.goodwill of the Liberals is neither so certain nor so valuable in the constituencies as it has proved in Parliament. On the 6th February the "Times" paid a remarkable tribute to the strength of Mr. Mac Donald's position:—

Though he is technically head of n minority Government no Prime Minister was ever for the- time being in a more impregnable position. If, for any reason of his own, he were* to go to the country -to-morrow, he would unquestionably.be returned to office.

In the same article the "Times" referred to Mr. Mac Donald's work at the Navab Conference and to the deep concern of all parties, in its success. Since then the Naval Conference has concluded in a success which, though incomplete, is from the standpoint of the politicians so genuine that even the Conservative leader can only meet the, motion for ratification with a Yes 7 No amendment which cannot do his own cause any good or Mr. MacDonald's any harm. Yet the "Times" would hardly repeat at the end of May the confident prediction which it made in his favour at the beginning of February. The outcome of the Naval Conference has increased the prestige of the Government in the field of foreign policy where it had been mostly won. The breakdown of Mr. Henderson's negotiations Avith Egypt, which is the Government's one conspicuous failure in this field, has probably done the Government more good than harm. Yet the set-back which it has now received in two constituencies shows that its excellent record in foreign policy is being outweighed by its mishandling of social and industrial issues.

In the six previous by-elections Labour had retained all the seats lhat it had won at the General Election, but in West Fulham on the 7th inst. its record was spoiled. It is true that with an aggregate poll of, 32,000 the West Fulham electors only gave the Conservative candidate a majority of 210 in an electorate which for a considerable time befoie llie last General

Election had consistently voted Conservative. But the result is significant nevertheless, especially in its bearing on the prospecis of the Liberal Party. In round numbers the Conservatives improved their General Election figures by 2200, while Labour suffered a loss of 200. The Labour candidate declares that "the only cause of defeat was the apathy of my own people," and it is obvious that the 4000 electors who voted at the General Election but stayed away on this occasion' must have included enough Labourites to have turned the scale against [he Conservatives' if they had been so minded. But why were they not so minded? Disappointment or fear excited by the policy of the Government is likely to have been the- chief cause. But the significance of the result is greatly enhanced by the fact that last year' a Liberal1 candidate polled 5920 votes —nearly thrice the Labour majority—whereas on this occasion there was no such candidate. We may suppose that it was in pursuance of the objective revealed by Mr. Lloyd George's Parliamentary tactics that the party leaders decided to improve Labour's chances by not running a candidate of their own, but the Lib-eral-Labour expectations have been completely disappointed. Exactly what happened t.o the 5920 electors who voted Liberal last year it is, of course,' impossible to say, but it is at least perfectly obvious that but a very small proportion of them can have found their way into the Labour camp. While Mr. Lloyd George and his very able lieutenant, Sir Herbert Samuel, are doing their best in Parliament to blur the lines that divide their party from Labour, the Liberals of West Fulham have given them no encouragement.

In (the Nottingham Central election, which was reported yesterday, there was, as at the General Election, a triangular contest, and what was then a Conservative seat remains Conservative still. But while the Conservatives have increased their General Election total by less than 400, both the other parties have slumped so heavily that the net gain for Conservatism is very large. The Labour vote has dropped from 11,573 to 7923, and the Liberal vote from 8738 to 4648. These losses of 3650 and 4090 respectively make an aggregate decline in the anti-Conservative vote of 7740, which, added to the Conservative' gain of 375, gives the Conservatives a net gain of more than 8000. These ■ extraordinary figures suggest at first sight that 'a Conservative reaction of which we have never heard a word has nevertheless made very great progress, but it is certain that the perilous position of the lace industry in which Nottingham is specially interested'gave the Conservatives,, as the advocates of safeguarding duties, an. advantage in this election which would vitiate any general application of ..the result. Both in Nottingham Central and in West Fulham, however, the unemployment impasse must have been a principal cause of the Conservative gains, and that is a cause which must be operating everywhere.