CRY FOR BREAD

Evening Post, Volume CIV, Issue 91, 14 October 1922, Page 18

CRY FOR BREAD

THE WORLD'S WHEAT CROPS

WHAT FAILURE WOULD MEAN,

When you answer the door every morning at the baker's call, do you ever consider the possibility of a worldwide bread famine, with humanity on the verge of starvation? asks the '■' Commerce Monthly." Only a little more than twelve short months back men all over the world whose duty it is to study these problems were in doubt whether there would.be enough grain to go'round. " Give us this day our daily bread." We have had it every day, year in and year out in Australia, and are apt to take everything as a matter of course.

But not say the people of the denselypopulated centres of Europe. A year ago- many anxious eyes were turned towards Australia. Millions of. human beings on the o^her side of the world were threatened with starvation.

Russia, which before the war produced nearly 800;000,000 bushels of wheat—lso,ooo,ooo for export and the remainder for local consumptionceased to count as a wheat-producing country. There was a complete breakdown.

With Kussia not able-to feed her own people, let alone the outside nations whom she had supplied in times of plenty, the world had to look to the United States, Canada, the Argentine, and Australia for its wheat supplies. After periods of great anxiety it "was found that the production of the wheat exporting countries, exclusive of Eussia, could meet" the requirements of the international market. By tha narrowest of margins a definite world shortage of wheat was avoided. Even now a serious crop failure in Australia, the Argentine, or the United States would mean not only _a breadless Russia, as at present—it would mean a hungry world. ' ■ RUSSIAN BREAKDOWN. As a result of the breakdown of Russian production and curtailment of the crop of the Danube Valley, the wheatimporting countries are primarily dependent on the exportable surplus of the .United States and Canada, as these two countries now furnish about twothirds of all wheat entering into international trade. The average wheat crop of the United States is about 800/100,000 bushels, as compared with a average of 667,000,000 bushels, this country and Western Europe constituting the two most dependable wheatgrowing climates of the world. The July estimate for the United States is for a crop of 817,000,000 bushels in the current year. The Canadian wheat .yield is subject to somewhat wider • variations than is that of the United States. With the possible exception of Asia, ■ Canada contains the largest and best undeveloped wheat lands yet remaining, and production during . recent years has been so materially affected by increased acreage on the one hand, and adverse weather on the other, that averages do not have their usual significance. Canadian production for the five years 1917 to 1921 averaged 236,000,000 bushels, but the 1921 crop was 301,000,000 bushels, and on the basis of the excellent weather conditions which the current crop has enjoyed thus far it seems likely to be as large as was that of last year! Total production in the leading exporting countries, exclusive of Russia, has not, since the war, reached the earlier level, when that country was included. It is not production, however, but the surplus available for export as compared with probable import require-' ments, which is the determining factor in the international wheat situation. NEW CROP PROSPECTS. There has been little tendency during recent years towards increased wheat production in the Argentine. This is partly due to the shifting and irresponsible- character of farm labour resulting from the system of large estates. Australian production is subject to considerable fluctuation. During the war years the yield averaged 130,000,000 bushels. The 1920-21 crop amounted to 143,965,000 bushels, and the 1921-22 harvest yielded an estimated output of 131,818,000 bushels. On the basis of the estimate, Australian exports from that crop would be nearly 100,000,000 bushels. I ;

The Indian crops of 1919 and 1921 ware both small, and this fact, together with general economic conditions, has pi-evented India from making any large contribution to the international wheat supply during the last three years. The latest official estimate of the 1922 crop, however, places it at 366,600,000 bushels, which is somewhat above the pre-war average, although less than the crops of 1918 and 1920. At the close of the war stocks of wheat in oxcess of a normal carryover had accumulated in a number of countries. During 1918-19 and 1919-20 these stocks were gradually absorbed, so that not until the harvest,year 1920----21 was if. definitely demonstrated that the current production, of the wheat-ex-porting countries, exclusive of Bussia, could meet the requirements of the international market.

The carry-over into the harvest year 1922-23 is probably rather light, and prospects for the new crop in Europe are not so favourable as last year. Reports received indicate a reduction of at least 1,500,000 acres in the area sown to wheat, and weather conditions generally have not been good, especially in Central Europe. WORLD EXPORTS. To supply import requirements the crop of the United States shoiild furnish, on a conservative estimate, from 200,000,000 to 220,000,000 bushels for export. In Canada, if the crop is as large as that of last year, over 200,000,000 bushels should be available for export. It is early as yet to estimate next season's crops in the southern hemisphere, but should the output be equal to that of the 1921-22 crop, which represented in both Australia and Argentina a low, rather than a high yield, there should be available for export from these two countries an aggregate of about 200.----000,000 bushels of wheat. This would make a total exportable surplus from the four countries of somewhat over 600,----000,000 bushels. In addition, there will probably be some wheat exported from the minor exporting countries. A comfortable balance is indicated, ' bat there is always the risk of a serious crop failure. 'Eight men named Bs,kei, all unrelated, served on v jury *t. Bow County Court recently. ,