THE WA^R

Evening Post, Volume XCV, Issue 44, 20 February 1918, Page 6

THE WA^R

Observersjfin the seat of war are imvpressed by the immediate nature of German yV preparations, and expect that thegreat offensive may begin at any moment. A United Press correspondent, looking forward to "th© most colossal battles :of all time," has -worked out the jig-saw puzzle of scraps of collected inform.'4ifcion and produced a sketch of the energy's proposed tactics. It makes an imposing story, but the details aro almost precisely those of tho usual attack as developed during the period of Allied offensives. The main difference dispto.yed is in the following up of the pre-Wra-tioti. Oemany lias learned 7 some-r?4h£i-JwuMMwaUncoixom the wv9.n6!#»fc

of the gun, of the latest in artillery preparation, and proposes to adopt it. But according to the published outline the scheme is one of pure penetration, the object being to blast holes through the defensive walls so as to cut up the defenders into sections, and then through the gaps to pour in masses of men to do what they can. German officers believe the scheme infallible, but the correspondent concludes, from the statements of prisoners, that the men are doubtful.

The real deciding factors in a battle of this land can be reduced to two—the ability of the enemy artillery to smash the defences, and the -sufficiency of the soldiers, in numbers and determination, to make effective use of'the gaps.' The battle may thus be decided on the artillery duel, which will be the first phase of the struggle. In this phase, the general Allied superiority in guns will be matched against such concentrations as the enemy may be able to effect unopposed by counter-concentrations. New gases are, it is said, to be introduced, and these will be used as much against artillery as against infantry, for gas is a very powerful instrument for quelling artillery' fire by, -, preventing the gunners from working properly. G-enrany will no doubt endeavour to use gases against which the existing protective masks are useless. The Allies have a certain element of foresight, even in this matter, in their continuous raids. Whenever the enemy trenches 'are raided an eHort is made to secure German gas-masks, and these are at once sent for expert examination, in case some new chemical is discovered in them to provide a clue to, any new gaa the enemy may be preparing to use, for naturally hand in hand with a new gas must go the prophylactic for the protection of the German troops.

The Germans may be abfe to cut holes through the defapsive line; the problem before them then is to get armies in after the shells, in the faca of opposing artillery fire, and the Allied infantryJust as the success of the German artillery depends largely upon unexpected concentration, so the launching of the storm-troops must follow up rapidly if they are not to be eaten "up ty reinforcements. Bapid as was the enemy's attack at. Verdun, it failed because the French had time to bring up reinforcements. The Germans in this case will presumably use tanks. It will* be very interesting to learn whether these machines have been much improved over the British, and French machines, and whether the Allies, with their full experience of both thfeir strength and weakness, their possibilities and their limitations, have a thor-ough-going anti-tank defence.

( The Morning Post protests against "the summary dismissal of a great soldier" in Sir William Robertson, and says that "the need of the hour is a Prime Minister who will command the confidence of all patriotic parties." This is obviously true, but where is he? The new Prime Minister, to justify himself, would: have to reverse the latest Lloyd George policy and at the same time retain the confidence of the Allies. Who can do it? Can it, in fact, be done? The Manchester Guardian touches the weak point in the idea of an alternative Go., vernment when it writes: "It is difficult to see how an Asquith Government could reverse the Versailles poKoy, for winch the Allies are unanimous." Two years ago, Mr. Asquith reigned on the presumption that he was an "indispensable" Prime Minister. To-day, Mr. Lloyd George holds office on what is claimed to be an indispensable policy. Anyone who disputes that claim must at least bs prepared to offer a substantial alternative.

According to the Paris correspondent of the New York World, Germany has lost 4,225,000 men (including 2,500,003 dead) and has now 4,800,000 effectives. The British Army estimates, according to to-day's news', provide for 5,000,000 men, who have the care of many war theatres. Mr. F. H. Simonds estimates that in the years 1916 and 1917 Germany " lost 3,000,000 men in battle; France a little more than a million; the British a million and a-half. But Germany cannot continue to lose at this rate against these enemies, and in 1919 she will have to pay -tribute to the- United States also." It is the dictum of Mr. Simonds that " the American Army cannot be ready in great numbers before the campaign of 1919, although some thousands may be in the firing line before' next spring." '■ ' .

Germany is short of coal, yet she can send plenty of coal to Switzerland to buy in l-etum ""material that she needs. Germany is w-lso supposed toi be short of money, yet she can find plenty of money to carry on iri her enemies' countries " the war behind the lines." Today some light is thrown on the scheme of special accounts opened by Germany in the banks' of neutral and even of belligerent countries—accounts from which the German, agents may draw " to an unlimited extent to destroy factories, military stores, food supplies belonging to our enemies; to stir up strikes; to destroy ships carrying war materials to enemy countries; to burn warehouses and raw material for manufactures; to destroy electrical plant in factories." The German General Staff's confidential communication, from which the a-bovs is taken, also informs German military officers that "special agents will bring you & list of persons willing to undertake destruction and sabotage." The scheme of " war behind the lines," well summedup in the above quotations; has special danger in the wide industrial ramifications of the United States, wit* that country's "mbfed population.,, It is a mistake to minimise the importance of " war behind the lines." A Halifax disaster has a great military value; a. stirred' up, strike, or a cultivated moral bias, is perhaps an even more deadly weapon. Should the Allies not retaliate? London announdes that the now "Director of Propaganda for Distribution in Enemy Countries" is Lord Northcliffe; and it is just possible that this energetic entrepreneur is the very best nfan for the job.