AMERICAN BALLOT

Evening Post, Volume xciv, Issue 73, 24 September 1917, Page 7

AMERICAN BALLOT

METHOD OF MAKING THE I DRAFT

SIMPUE, AND THOROUGHLY HONEST \

ONE BALLOT FOR THE WHOBS NATION

The following detailed description of the ingenious but simple method adopted for carrying out the "draft" for compulsory service in the United States, Army -was writtt-en for the Scientific American by Mr. 0. H./ Claudy:— The United States, with the strictest of laws against lotteries or contests of any sort in which the element of ruck plays a pait in the securing of a, prize, has just completed, the' greatest lottery drawing ever attempted. The prizes were not monetary, But the call to the colours, or the possibility of not, being called, (according to individual viewpoint!) and the "game of chance" was specifically authorised in law. ' 'No lottery for monetary gain, no old world or Louisiana State lottery, was ever simpler in. mechanism, or more hedged about with precautions to ensure absolute fairness. ' * Ten thousand five hundred numbers were drawn, which means that every registerfid man had. one chance m 10,500 of being called first, oa© chance in 10,499 of being called second, if not called first, one chance in 10,498 of being called third, if not called earlier, etc. Inasmuch as the 4557 registration districts had different numbers of registrants, any. one single draft number might skip registrants in small districts. Thus, a district with 257 registrants only was not called upon by the first number drawn (258), but the chance, as a chance remained the same— one in 10,499—"that a given man from that distriot be named second. There -has been some-comment that inasmuch, as. it-he total number of numbers drawn exceeded the greatest registration in the largest, district, the drawing was not strictly proportioned by chances to the number of men registered. That this is an erroneous statement, a moment's thought will show. Had there been 21,000 numbers,, instead of 10,500, the result would have been the' same, the numbers above the highest number of registrants merely being discarded, and having no effect on the lottery as such. The precautions taken to make^thedrawing absolutely a matter of chance were such as can give the most rabid anti-conscriptionist no points on which to hang an argument. The numbers, in red, on white paper) black on the other side, were rolled, black side out, and inserted in gelatine capsules like the fa- ■ milia-r five-grain quinine dose of household use. It was impossible upon the closest scrunity to read the number inside the capsule. AH the capsules \rere alike. But while a searchlight might have been, turned on the glass bowl holding the 10,500 capsules and the most eager and interested man allowed to pick by sight, without in any way affecting his ability to determine one number from another, only blindfolded men were. per-, mifcted to draw. The mass of capsules was stirred constantly with a spoon, and so thoroughly were they mixed that, throughout the drawing, two consecutive numbers were in no case drawn one afterthe other. Different drew different bum- > bers of men. Thus, for instance, numbers one, two and three, etc., dr-ew in each case 4357 men for service—or for summons for examination—since no registration district bat had- its numbers one, two and three. But the 'higher numbers dress .less and less men, as they yrere nearer and nearer to the top'figrore. For instance, in. the capital of the nation' ihere were.-eleven registration districts. The smallest negistration in any was 1642. Any number from one to 1642- drew one man from each of the eleven district* in Washington. U]> to 1927, it-he next smallest number registered, any drawn number called ten men, up to 2590 called" nine men, and so on up to 3704 and be--lwv 3721, which numbera called- but on« wan from ; Washington. : On a larger scale, this happened-all' over: the country. <In other words, each number represented: a group of men, the members of which are scattered all over Jthe country,,these groups varying in size. 'Each drawn number summoned a group but, regardless of the size of the group, one group was exactly as liable to be called first, or last, as any other group. Ajs the .numbers were, drawn' „by a blindfolded- man, the capsule was broken, the number read aloud, checked, entered on lists, and written on a blackboard. ' Had every man in the drawing been, intent upon avoiding some one number, it would Still have been impossible. The blackboard with numbers listed in the order in which, they were drawn, held 1000, and it was photographed after each filling. Chicansry, trickery., -influence, pull, graft—they were all help-less before the utter simplicity and the absolute inexorability of this simplest of lotteries. In spite, however, of the utmost precautions in preparing the capsules,. there was one error. -The' 10,004 th capsule drawn had no number in it. Later it was ascertained by checking that this missing number would have called all men numbered 4,664. i At the_ time the blank was drawn, it was hastily decided to make the 10,005 th drawing .fill, the 10,0004 th place, which made the total drawn from 10,499 instead of 10,500. The manifest, if theoretical, unfairness of ,fchis, later became apparent and 4664, when it came to light as the missing number, was promptly inserted in the 10,004 th place, where it belonged. Practically, the matter is of no importance, since men called so late, in the draft will in all human probability never be summoned to the colours. But the principle is the, same, and had the blank number come out, for instance, on the 500 th draw, and' not been inserted in its proper place, but eliminated entirely, all these men listed by that number would actually never ■■really have been in the draw at all. No one knows how the error occurred, •nor does it matter now, nor has it the slightest effect upon the absolute accuracy of the draft. That errors were so few- is a matter of wonder, yet also one-of congratulation, because, when matters of life and death hang upon gelatine capsules' in a glass bowl, it is well that the American spirit of absolute fair play be fully satisfied. Another little difficulty presented itself in the case of 6689 and 6899. Upside down,, either one becomes the other. Both -were recorded as the same number, though widely apart in the drawing. It was ruled that the first number of these two recorded: was correctly recorded, the second one being- the true other of the pair. Like the case of 4664, the matter is more theoreiicakthan practical. A complete system of checks and rechecks was resorted ito before the final sheets were made up to send out. The tally sheets as recorded by the tally markers and the blackboards were compared in order that there might be no errors. The final master sheets, eleven to a set (ten of 1000 numbers, numbered in order and one o£ 500, numbered in order), have been -printed and sent to each -re- , gist-ration district,. where the matter of calling the quota demanded in the first draft will be attended to. . There were-a few oddities in the draft worthy of mention. Number 2, the 10,312 th number drawn, was drawn exactly at two o'clock in the morning. Number- 13 refused to live .usp to its. uaual-tepttteiti<)n,-&nd"-was poj. drawn-afe

thirteen -miimte* to «-after airy hour. Of couraei, it -was drawn on Friday, 4wt —so fwere-iffl-tie other aumfcerfi. Nuinber-258, the 'first nturiber* drawn, and to some men, therefore, the tinhickiest .number of all, is, curiously, enough, the (room number of that- cham-, her in the municipal building in New York, in -which marriages are performed, and in which hundreds of young- men accused of being "marriage slackers" have recently taken unto themselves wives. The authorities of the marriage license bureau ate-pointing this out*to would-be slackers as an ; omen! .-,;'■'■■ As a result of the drawing every registered, man in the "counjtrjr is given a definite place in the liability for service, list. Already 687,000 have been ordered to the colours to fill to war strength the regular army and national guard and to constitute the first increment of the na-, tional army. To secure that total, 1,374,000 men will be called for examination within a few weeks, estimating that two registrants must be called for every soldier accepted. r These 1,374,000 will -be taken from the head of the liability list, every local district furnishing a fixed quota. \ ■ ■.'.; ■;■■■,■ :■ ■ : ' No further drawings.-will be necessary as long as any eligible regfstrant is not under training. Only in the event that a new registration calling men between the ages of thirty-one and "some higher age. is required, will another lottery like this one ever be needed. Some little' question has been .raised as to why capsules, instead of a wheel were iised. The: answer is simple. A wheel can«get out of order. A draft of air can affect it. A charge, no matter, how -ba-seless, could be made that it was tampered with, "fixed" and therefore unfair. The most .astute lawyer, the most unscrupulous disturber, could not produce an argument worthy of a moment's attention that anything but absolute chance .governed the order in which the numbers were .picked from the glass bowl, or even point but a possible way in which this draft could be considered in any way. less than absolutely fair. ■ ' ■ -. ■•■ .