THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIV, Issue 27, 1 August 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

So-far- there is no sign pi an offensive on the British front, but the artillery: battle goes on. According to German reports it has diminished in intensity; British correspondents cay the shelling is as heavy and furious as ever. The latter declare that the Germans expect an attack, and imply more than they say when they add that Sir Douglas Ha-ig maintains "a,most significant silence." It is natural, of course, that the Germans should expect an offensive; first, because of the Russian smash and the pressure on the French army; secondly, because of the general desirability of anticipating a German offensive if one is in preparation; thirdly, perhaps bacause the Germans have tried so to control events on, the Flanders front as to invite one, in the belief that it can be stopped and will result chiefly in injury to the British. In the circumstances it is quite conceivable that Sir Douglas Haig may have decided to disappoint the Germans after letting them throw awayall their big reserves of artillery ammunition; he can well afford (on the mere question- of shell supply) to do so.

The most powerful lever tending to force a. British offensive is the Russian failure. If that should show signs of ■developing into a disaster, and not merely into a clean retreat involving no material effect on the result of the war, the British may be compelled to undertake the tremendous work of drawing the German armies out of Galicia. In the meantime, however, there is no reason to fear such an event. The Russian -^command seems to be ■ recovering a grip on the situation. In recovering it, the Russians evidently have to thtftik the enemy's failure to rush sufficient forces into tlie gap; but exactly why they failed is not clear. It may have been that the collapse of the Russians was not fully expected; it may have been due, though this is not very likely, to Austrian reluctance to carry out a flue share, of the work :> it ■ may have been, and proba-bly was, largely caused by sheer difficulty of transport in the, folded Podolia-n hills with their limited roading. If the Russian break came, with little warning even, to Berlin, these transport difficulties would be enonnous'ly greater, because most elaborate preparations are necessary to enable an army to follow up a rapid retreat and make a success of the operation. Nothing could be more eloquent of the unpreparedness o£ tlhe 'enemy to take advantage of their opening than the ability of Locker-Lampson's famous armoured cars to check the advance on a front of fifteen miles. ■,■■

The Russian front is* now out of-Galicia in the: region south-east of Tarnopol, and the Germans claim to have fought a successful battle and crossed the Zbruch River into Russia in that quarter, At various other points the Russians have fallen back under enemy pressure, which indicates that an effort, so far futile, is being made now to involve the firmer portions of the Russians in hasty retreat. There is, fortunately, no sign of the Russian forces being further infected by the treacheiy of the Tarnopol army. The breakdown of the offensive at Krcvo, in the Vilna sector, seems to have resulted in nothing worse. Probably the rapid restoration of health in tlie urmy is principally the result of returning it to the control of the . time-tested disciplinary system, and the abolition of tho ridiculous committeu control instituted under the revolution.

The loss of the armoured cruiser Ari--adne, which was yesterday reported to have been sunk by a submarine's torpedo, is not a very serious naval event, for the Ariadne was an old ship, removed from tlte active list in 1913. Noni! the less she was a powerful unit among tho many inferior warships, all of which have /ouml full oconpajion dm-ing Hie \yh.i' in tlin .limn*!, ut'ltmuorl ephvvo of patrol work. I'rier to the >yw*j it

seems to have been assumed that most, if not all, the warships whose nominal term of life had expired, could remain in retirement, except, perhaps, for use as training ships. But the naval requirements have been so vast that the Admiralty has found good use for practically every armed ship that was seaworthy at all, and the active list now contains a large number of vessels which had disappeared from the official year-books years before. The last British warship destroyed by a submarine was tho battleship 'Cornwalli?, sunk in the Mediterranean last January. ■ No warship was lost by this means in the North Sea since May, 1915, so that for over two years the Home Fleet has been immune from damage, except in action' or by mines. Germany has also lost an Ariadne; a light cruiser of that name was among the vessels sunk in the battle of Heligoland Bight, 28th August, 1914.

The statement by the Ministry of .Shipping on tlie work of the British mercantile marine sums up in brief and understandable form sufficient data about the shipping situation to enable people to gain some idea of the overwhelming task which, rests upon the merchant service. So great is this task that the Government has found it necessary to take over full control of practically the whole tonnage of the Empire, and to sacrifice for tha time being vast and pz'ofitable commerce with distant parts of the world. Upon this commerce, which has during centuries of growth made the British flag paramount in every sea, the wealth and prosperity of Britain and a great proportion of the form and progress of the, world's civilisation have depended. For the time being tho British merchant service, being more fully occupied than ever before in history, and receiving higher freights than befqre, has shown phenomenal profits; and at a cursory view would seenwjto be amazingly prosperous. But its ,war profits come chiefly out of the wax funds, which, with small exceptions, represent burnt money; and in as far as they can bo restored to the State and used over again, they are being restored through the virtual State ownership of all the shipping lines. As tho Ministry's statement points out, the war traffic, huge and profitable as it is, is no substitute for what has been lost, owing to the absolute necessity for winning the war regardless of immediate consequences.

"Many trades which have been built up in distant waters by British enterprise have been abandoned to neutral shipping," and. ( the neutral countries have naturally done their utmost to take advantage of this priceless opportunity. How far Britain will be able to recover hor lost commerce in the yeans ■of peace to come only the future can reveal. Germany bides her time, for the inevitable trade war, with a great merchant fleet lying safe in her harbours; and if the submarine war aims first at crippling the war trade of the Allies inorder to defeat their armies in battle, a secondary object of undoubted' importance is to lea.ye, them with as small a merchant service as may be to compete for the future commercial supremacy of th« world. But in the long run Britain at least will probably emerge from the war with a, total tonnage perhaps larger than what existed in! 1914, and almost certainly little less; and though the competition with the expanded neutral shipping may be keener, tho British, flag will bo as welcome as ever in the ports of the world, and the general position of the major meroantilo Powors is not likely to be greatly altered, except to tSie direct injury of German trade.