THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIII, Issue 47, 23 February 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

A statement of outstanding importance has beien made by Sir Edward Carson, First Lord of the Admiralty, upon the progress of the German submarine warfare and the British protective campaign. The occasion was the introduction of the' Naval Estimates, and a brief refei-ence may be made in passing to the only detail transmitted regarding the Estimates themselves. The First Lord stated that the House- was, asked to (Vote provision for a. strength of 400,000 men. This is an index to the' growth of the British Navy. At the outbreak of war the active units (provided for in the 1914 Estimates) totalled 140,000 men. When Mr. Balfour brought down the Estimates last year he stated that, without the Naval Division, the total was about 300,000, and provision was asked for 350,000 men. The, past year has sieen this great total increased by. a further 50,000. Mr. Balfour also announced last March that since the outbreak of war the .tonnage of the Britsh Navy had been increased by well over a million tons; No corresponding statement by Sir Edward Carson has been reported; but the fact must exist.

The First Lord's statement contains some statistical information; but for reasons of policy' he has not been able to make it V|ery complete. One item sets out the. shipping losses during the first eighteen days of December, January, and February, and these can best bo grasped in tabular form, as under. The fust figure is the total number of vessels sunk, the second that of vessels over ICOO tons; the number in brackets being the total tonnage of th!e bigger ships :

The adoption of only part of each month is due, of course, to the desire to have a- simple comparison with the up-tc-dat'e figures for the current month. The most striking point about these figures is that those for February show, in spite of the bomba-st with 'which the Germans heralded their " fricjhtfulriess " campaign, no surprising increase over those of the preceding two months. The fact is strong confirmation of the theory already advanced in these notes that the Germans had little more material in hand for tho new policy than they were already using in the old one ; the difference may be almost wholly accounted for by the removal of a.. certain amount oi restraint in_the. operEtionv-even if.

allowance is made at the same time for the cessation of much n'.eutral traffic. The point is emphasised by Sir Edward's statement that at any given moment about 3000 ships offer targets within the "barred" zone. Probably the later days of this month, with their smaller toll of shipping, would make the "frightful" campaign look even, poorer by comparison. During the eighteen days of February about 12,000 vessels moved in Olio barred zon;e; and 134 were sunk.

But these figures, however satisfactory they may appear, cannot be regarded as minimising the value of submarine warfare from the German point of view. They represent a heavy and steady drain which no nation can stand for an indefinite 1 period, and the end. is not in sight. " The submarine menace is a gruve problem, which has not yet- been solved," says Sir Edward Careon, and he can only express confidence that defensive, measures will gradually and greatly mitigate it. Enemy experts' are somewhat satirically ■* reno'rted to have recast their estimates of the campaign, and to have the period for its effective working from two months tc- a year But the Imperial Chancellor is surprised at the unexpected success of the campaign, and declares {that no submarines have been, lost this month. The losses of tonnage may be almost or quite equalled by new construction; but to assume that ithey are therefore unimportant is as absurd as to say that the burning of a fully insured Building is no loss to the community.- Every sunken ship means a waste of material, of money, of time, of opportunity for naval expansion, and of potential soldiers., The cure is successful anti-sub-marine operations, and it is so far only palliative. , However, Sir.Edward Carson is able to report the "enormous achievement " that forty encounters took place with submarines in February, with results _ varying from certain destruction to certain escape. He means, presumably, encounters by patrol vessels of various classes.\ .

It is easy, remembering that some thousands of armed vessels are available for the huni, to scoff at forty encounters as an enormous achievement for eighteen days. Two a. day! But actually Sir Edward's phrase is well chosen. Even ten thousand patrol ships could not kee-p an eye on every square mile of the enormous operating zone of the submarines ; and it must be remembered that, while it is. the business of the U-boats to sink merchantmen, most of their time is taken up with avoiding dangerous vessels, and that they are in evefy respect eminently fitted for eluding detection. Tile foolish word "sport" as applied to the hunting df submarines is responsible for much misconception about the work of the patrols. Actually their routine is a dreary and'endless sentry-go, in which for months they may never see even a periscope, let alone a target offering a decent shot. Forty encounters' is a fine record; and twenty "kills" in twenty days would ■ be .in achievement that would give the German Admiralty some very' unpleasant thinking.

The Imperial Chancellor has announced in the Reichstag that not a single undersea boat has been lost during February; and one of to-day's messages'* indicates thnt his words are also those of Admiral yon Capelle, the head of the Admiralty. The statement is certainly false in fact, though it may be true as regards losses reported by the Admiralty, which may have an ingenious arrangement for 'knowing things unofficially at once and only learning of them officially at a convenient time. No German statement about naval losses can be trusted; the Battle of, Jutland is only one case that proves it. No doubt it is possible that submarine commanders have, as the Chancellor says, reported no increase in the defensiveness of British shipping; but it is obvious that these are they who did not test it; they were the lucky ones, and could not speak for their dead comrades in U-boats that will never bring in a report. . ' .

The defensiveness of the. mercantile marine depends very much upon tho rapidity,' completeness, and effectiveness of the system of arming, which is now, beiay carried out at considerable speed. Sir Edward Carson puts the chances of escape for armed vessels ait three times that of unarmed, vessels. It is very interesting that this ratio (75 percent, of escapes in one case and 24 per cent, in the other of vessels attacked) is very different from earlier estimates, which ranged much higher. In one instance, it was reported that only six armed ships out of 78 attacked were, sunk, while only seven_ out of 100 unarmed ships escaped. Probably the remarkable change in the proportion of' escapes in the two classes is due to the fact that so many ships are armed that, the submarines regard nearly all large vessels as dangerous, and attack without showing themselves. This natm-ally reduces enormously the number of actual attacks, because the submarines are at once placed at a disadvantage both in'speed and in opportunity for striking; 'and the increased ratio of armed ..vessels sunk does not necessarily mean an increased number of losses iii this category.

Mr. Winston Churchill's comment on the speech of the First Lord is'interesting- for his remark 'that the British blockade has at last reached a high degree of stringency without losing the goodwill of neutrals. He added pointedly that America's adtion in breaking off relations with Germany showed that the Allies' considerate and -hnmane policy was not without its reward. It is gratifying that Mr. Churchill, who is in a measure responsible for the early failure of itho blockade (owing to the futile regulations which endeavoured to achieve results by inadequate and wonderfully troublesome means) should be able to • say what ho has done. The failure of the British "blockade" policy to exclude cotton (among other things) from Germany during a year or mora of the Avar was of enormous advantage .to the enemy But as that blunder is.irreparable, wo can only feel gratified thai the existing policy for " regulating" the enemy's imports is sound and safe.

December ...... 118 lanuary 91 February 134 69 (201.0G0' 65 (182,532* 89 (268,631'