Ist DIVISION

Evening Post, Volume XCIII, Issue 46, 22 February 1917, Page 8

Ist DIVISION

STILL 60,000 LEFT

ENOUGH FOR SIX MORE DRAFTS

POSITION OF SECOND DIVISION,

WHEN WILL IT BE CALLED ON ?

A good deal of interest is being evinced as to the probable date of the exhaustion oE the First Division of the Expeditionary Force Reserve, and . the consequent calling up of members of the Second Division. " Moro or less wild statements have been published lately regarding the probable date, but these should be definitely set at rest as a result of official figures supplied to-day. These show that there is very little prospect of members of the Second Division being required to go into camp before November or December next, at the earliest.

A return prepared by the Government Statistician shows that on the 7th insfc., at the conclusion of the last big ballot (completing up to the 28th Reinforcements, going into camp in April next), there still remained 59,952 reservists in the First Division. The number of First Division reservists then remaining in each Recruiting District was as follows:— Recruit/ing Ist Division Men District. Remaining. Auckland City 9154 Hauraki 1433 North Auckland 1749 Waikato 2659 Wellington City 6212 Manawatu 2774 " Hawkes Bay 2306 ' Taranaki 2820 Christchurch 4438 South -Canterbury 2791 North Canterbury '1575 Nelson .. ; 2165 Dunedin 3864 Southland ' '..... 3572 North Otago 1304 Clutha 1173 Bay of Plenty 1163 Wairarapa .-. 2326 Poverty Bay 1847 Wanganui 2253 West Coast 2374 Total 59,9.3(2 The First- Division register when the first ballot was taken in November last comprised 84,986 men. , This means that since then an inroad has been made upon the First Division to the extent of, 25,034 men. Of these some 17,467 men have been called up in' the four ballots that have been held., while the balance have been accounted for by voluntary enlistment, either being accepted or medically rejected. With this evidence available a reliable answer is able to be given to the question as to how long the First Division is likely to last. This depends on the number of fit men available in the remaining 59,952, and,upon the number of appeals allowed by the Military Service Boards. Hitherto the authorities, in order to allow for medical rejections and temporary exemptions, have been calling up three men by ballot for every vacancy to be filled. Though sufficient time has not ela-psed to state definitely whether this is a proper margin the results appear to be working out in that proportion. In order that no false hopes might be created, however,'let it be assumed, for. the purpose of ascertaining the probable date of the 2nd Division being called on, that the remaining mem-' j bers of the Ist Division only produce onefourth of the number who can go into camp. This, it will be admitted, is a very conservative estimate, and weights the position heavily against members of the 2nd Division. Working on this basis it will be found that the balance of the Ist Division still left should produce 15,000 men fit and a-ble to go into camp.

As the Dominion's commitments only require us to send reinforcements at the rate of 50,000 men per annum so long as the war lasts, these 15,000 men will be . sufficient to supply another six drafts. The 28th draft, going into camp in April next is already complete. This means that at a most conservative estimate there are sufficient men left in the First Division ito supply up to the 34th Reinforcements, mobilising in October next.

In that i event, giving two months' ■notice, as is now the practice, the first ballot among members of the Second Division cannot t3.ke place before September next, and the men so called up wil) only be required to go into camp in .the following- November. With four months' it-raining they would sail for. the front ill' March, 1918.

That is stating the position on the minimum basis. It has been •announced ;by the Military Service Boards, however, that before members of the Second Division are called on there will be a .thorough "combing ont" of members of .'the First Division, all cases of exemption ibeing again gone into. It is reasonable to suppose that such "combing out" will .produce, sufficient men for --mother draft, which will postpone calling up the Second Division by another month. '

' Another factor which has a directbearing on these calculations and which should not be overlooked is that they make no allowance for members of the Second Division enlisting in the drafts ■spoken. • : of; • As members of the Second^ Division are r-egul.irly enlisting in, considerablfe numbers and every mail doing so replaces a member of the 1st 1 Division, it will be seen that if this goes 'on the membership of the Ist Division will be spun out in proportion —it may;be, for one, two, or three months longer. It may thus result in the first ballot required" from among members of the 2nd Division (to make up shortages due to the failure" of voluntary enlistment) not being taken until the year 1918 has made its appearance. In any case, the position as it stands now is that the first ballot among members of the Second Division is not likely to be taken before September next at the very earliest, that if such is taken the men so called up will not require to go into camp, before November, and that if they do so they will not require to sail until March, 1918.•