THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIII, Issue 29, 2 February 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

It must be assumed that Germany has not issued her latest message without being prepared to back it up at least partially.. Even if we make optimistic estimates of the effect of the new British minefields, such as were discussed in yesterday's notes, the possibility of surprising enemy efforts must be recognised. Bm, the German^, threat., is so colossal, to use the favoured German adjective; so circumstantial and pompous and blatant, that it is impossible to avoid the idea that it is in a big degree "bluff." The most astonishing thing about it is the challenge which is issued to the neutral world, especially the United States. .The world is fairly reconciled to the German habit of defining war-zones; but assuredly it is not used to the take-it-or-leave-it form of address shown in the new pronunciamiento. Henceforth the North Sea is closed to every neutral ship except those which choose to run between the Scandinavian, countries, Holland, and Germany.

Germany has defined a "barred' area," which, with the British Isles in its centre, takes in the whole of the English Channel, and all the North Sea west of a line joining the Zuyder Zee and the Norwegian coast immediately east of the Orkneys. North of Britain the area extends to the Faroe Islands; and the boundary swings round west and south to Cape Finisterre (in the north-west of Spain) at a distance of from 250 to 300 miles from the British.lsles, and encloses the whole of the. Bay of Biscay, except a strip twenty miles wide along tl\e north coast of Spain. That is, in brief, the meaning of the elaborate definition^ extracted from the Note to tho United States. This area is, in theory, to be infested by submarines which will sink every ship sighted, under whatever flag, and with whatever cargo; but a provision is made for a strictly limited. American passenger service to one British port, Falmoutli.

It will be remembered that Germany 'declared a war zone in connection with the submarine "blockade" inauojurated on 18th February, 1915. The following was the method of tho announcement.: "Germany hereby declares all the waters surrounding Great Britain and Ireland, including tlie entire English an area of war, a,nd will iHereiri act against the shipping of the enemy. For this pur-, .pose, beginning 18th February, 1915, she will endeavour to destroy every enemy merchant ship that ia found in this are^. 'of war, even if it be not always possible to avert the peril which threatens persons and cargoes. Neutrals are, therefore, warned against further entrusting crews and passengers and wares to such ships. " The only geographical limits named to the area tlius described were that shipping northward of the Shetlands, oi in the eastern part of the North Sea, or irv a "strip of 30 miles along the Netherlands coast, was not in peril. At that time, Germany had not sufficient submarines to establish a real blockade; and she has never iised sufficient, since then. The new area is far .larger than that described two years ago; and even with the more numerous submarines —the "concentration of exceptional forces" mentioned by Yon Beth-jnann-Hollweg, the enemy can only catch shipping by hazard. It is quite certain that an area of .the enormous size described cannot be completely patrolled by German submarines. •

As was the case in 1915, the enemy's object is to couple moral with material effect, to prevent neutral ships trading for the benefit of the Allies, n.nd the " ruthlessness " which breathes in_ every line of the new announcement is the force which she expects to turn every neutral prow aside from Britain and France. But when she catches a vessel that ha-s ignored the prohibition, there is every reason to suppose that the "law" will be enforced by gun or torpedo. British shipping,, of course, has continually been exposed to attacks 'at least 3s ruthless as" we may expect, with the exception that as a rule the submarines have allowed the crews time to get into boats; and in proportion, to the number and activity of the submarines, British losses may riot increase. Actually they have been decreasing in proportion to neutral losses, owing to the, development of the armament system. Neutral losses have, however, been high—so great that, as a message to-day shows, the national flags have in some cases lost- an even heavier pericentage of tonnage than the British. Hitherto, no neutral has armed its ships; but why that has not been done as a logical measure of protection it is hard to understand. Certainly the neutral casualty list may be expected to increase heavily unless important steps result in the upsetting of the Germans' scheme.

There is scope for unlimited discussion of the new German scheme, but at the present stage momentary changes ore 'possible owing to the possible actions of neutrals. One may therefore turn toother aspects'of the war news. There is, for instance, the amazing declaration of the enemy regarding the British hospital ships. As the British Government has pointed out, there is no truth in the allegation that such ships have been used as transports, and. the enemy is. probably establishing a basis upon which he will attempt to justify attacks upon a clas3 of vessel which is held everywhere else to be absolutely sacred against molestation. Britain is not likely w> forgot that at • least one German "hospital" ship, the Ophelia, was captured and condemned for being engaged on military duties, quite early in the war. But Germany,. not content with charging the British with abusing the Red Cross, has resolved "not to tolerate" the use of hospital ships south of a line from Flamborouih* Head to Terschelling, in Holland, or m any part of the- English Channel. The North Sea area thus included muy be regarded as the most activo region of naval operations, where hospital ships may find their services required at any time. The English Channel contains tho whole of the British Army's lines of cpmmunicaUon. Tlwid » cci doubt tbo Navy will nmuii'Ku to do without hospital shins in.

the North Sea if Germany makes it necessary; a good many thousand sailors have perished there already "with cheerful resignation to their absence.

But the German ban upon the hospital oervice in the Channel is not so melancholy a subject The most amazing feature of the British transport. work . is thau in the whole course of the war, among all the ships the Germans have sunk, not a single Channel troop, transport has been destroyed. The reason is, of course, that the submarines have never been able to operate there. Germany may not tolerate the presence of hospital ships in the Channel: but she will have to let them sail in spite of her intolerance. Sir John Jellicoe might as well say he will not tolerate any German battleships in the Kiel Canal.