THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCI, Issue 107, 6 May 1916, Page 4

THE WAR

In another place reference is made to Germany's effort to justify the plain murder of non-combatants by alleging that the. British Navy is illegally starving Germany. As to-morrow will be the anniversary of the sinking of the Lusitania, it will be seen that the argument thereon between Washington and Berlin has already become prodigious both in words and duration. How long will it last? In the March number of the Contemporary Review Mr. C. Hobhouse writes : "If Germany persists in obduracy, and neither repudiates and punishes her agents nor abandons her practices, American opinion could not, I believe, remain satisfied with a mere rupture of diplomatic relations, and, whatever be the sacrifice involved, it will be made unanimously and unsparingly. But meanwhile accommodation will be sought in every direction, and be welcomed in every quarter, to avert such a,reversal of the nation's policy. It cannot be too often repeated that there is no desire for war, no party for war, nor will there be one." Which means that Mr. Roosevelt's is a voice in the wilderness.

How strongly Mr. Hobhouse is impressed with the anti-war tendencies of the United States is shown by another passage :_ "If the negotiations at present taking place between America and Germany eventuate in war, tho part to be played by the American Army could in no way correspond to the importance of the "United States. The number of regular troops is exceedingly small, and though there would probably be no limit to their numerical increase, it would be long before it could become a decisive factor in the field of battle. The navy would be, no doubt, a weir, come addition to the Allies, but it would be relegated to the same silent, though all-important, duties performed by the other fleets. Participation in the war could therefore yield no spectacular result which would justify so momentous a departure from the' traditional isolation frdm Europe, or even compensate for the cost of military preparation on an adequate scale. The industrial aud financial disturbance, moreover, would terminate that revival of commercial prosperity which has lately taken place in the States, aud of which they undoubtedly are thinking far more than of diplomatic, legal, or ethical disputes of their own Government or any other."

Mr. Hobhouse's remarks also touch on another phase of the subject, a phase which may best be summed up in the following question : If the United States Government delays in bringing Germany to book on the submarine question, will that not involve a corresponding delay in bringing the Entente to book on trade right questions; and, conversely, would not a speedy settlement of the submarine question create rnore pressing difficulties for the Entente on the trade question? In this connection, Mr. Hobhouse states that after the first outburst on the Lusitania question, there came in. the United States " a curious revulsion of feeling .... Both press and people reminded themselves thai, while the slaughter of American citizens was an offence which could not be condoned, yet the detention of goods and shipping passing between neutral ports, whether or not it led to confiscation, was a new and serious breach of international law and practice. They were almost certainly unaware that, whatever might be the state of international law, the practice of the United States itself during their own Civil War was an exact precedent for our action in blockading Germany through the medium of neutral territory." Yet, he adds, "the sentiment, whatever its moral value, was complete and widespread." And he expects a similar swing back of the pendulum of public opinion if Berlin baeks down to Washington.

Therefore the opinion of Mr. Hobhouse —which is given, of course, for what it is worth —is that British irritation with President Wilson should curb itself. "If now we refrain from comment, advice, or criticism, we shall hereafter reap the reward of our silence. Should America escape conflict with Germany, it wiJU be because her contention as to her international rights in the matter of the life of her citizens has been accepted and satisfied. She- will consider herself equally entitled to judgment where her international, right of trading is concerned. Her success in the first instance will urge her to press her claims in the second ease with her utmost persistence, and should immediate success fail to attend her representations to Great Britain, every word we now utter will be haled against us. The necessity for maintaining an impartial attitude will be put forward by the GermanAmerican influences, the press will succumb to it, and the electoral agencies will ipoimce on it as so much grist to their mill. The deep-seated resolve of the United States to seek peace and ensue it determines within what limits the President can enforce national rights or uphold national honour ; but within these limits, once the Lusitania is out of the way, the 'blockade' will move into the centre of the stage." Mr. Hobhouse's writing is evidently animated by similar views to those of the Daily Chronicle when it recently^ rebuked Punch for caricaturing President Wilson.

It is cabled that Mr. Asquith's statement that the British Empire has raised five million troops has caused surprise. Certainly the figure is a very large one. Let us consider it in the light of population statistics. To-day there are in the British Isles a population of about 47 millions. Cut out Ireland (between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000), and the remaining population is about 42i millions. Now consider the figures as to soldiers : — Up to Sth January Ireland had raised nearly 90,000 soldiers, and has probably now raised at least 100,000. Subtract that from the five millions quoted by Mr. Asquith, and the result is 4,800,000 troops raised by the Empire, less Ireland. How many have been raised by overseas Britain? We know pretty well what has been raised by Canada, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand, but not India's contribution. Allowing for the unknown Indian factor, it is still safe to say that overseas Britain has not raised more than one million. Subtract that from the 4,900,000, and we have 3,900,000 raised by England, Scotland, and Wales. Now, the population of England, Scotland, and Wales has been worked out (sec above) at 42^ millions'. Ten per cent, of 421 millions is 4,250,000, which is only 350,000 in excess of the troops that, according to Mr. Asquith's data and this calculation, have been actually raised by England, Scotland, and Wales.

By military writers it is fairly generally agreed that 10 per cent, or population represents the maximum soldier effort of a conscript country. Mr. Belloc says that it was not exceeded in the Balkan wars. Therefore the voluntary system in England, Scotland, and Wales has done remarkably well to produce within 300,000 or 400,000 men of the customary maximum of, conscript countries. And it should be remembered that for a Balkan State to parade 10 per cent, in a Balkan war is not nearly m great a performance 4« for a. Great Eoaos:. to jk>. 50.1a. -U4e_._BisfiSi)&.. sat*

Proof of this statement is obvious enough. In the first place, this war is a munitions war, a factory war, and a money war in a sense that no other conflict ever was; in the second place, Britain's highly developed industrialism (non-existent in the Balkans) lias made her peculiarly the factory not only foi; equipping and munitioning her own army (a new creation), but for lending munitions and money to her allies. That Britain has fulfilled her immense industrial role and at the same time come measurably near supplying her 10 per cent, of soldiers is a wonderful feat of voluntaryism. But the last few hundred thousands are now needed. The Chief of the General Staff, Sir William Robertson, says they must be obtained; hence the grafting of compulsion on to an enormous effort of patriotic free will.

After a long silence there is news from Salonica. Two railways go out of this port, one going north-westward to Monastir (a Macedonian town occupied by the enemy); it crosses the Greek border near Fiorina. The more important railway goes northward to the Vardar Valley, and divides into two; one branch continues up the Vardar through Servia to Nish, where it joins the Belgrade-Sofia-Constantinople railway; the other branch turns eastward to Bulgaria and Turkey. The news to-day tells of a French advance on the left of the Entente position, where they have occupied Fiorina, and evidently hold all the Salonica - Monastir railway between Fiorina and Salonica; that' is to say, they have reached a point looking directly across the border to the enemy's Monastir lines. The enemy is in front of them; the Greeks on their flank. This movement may lead to important developments, if the Athens situation permite.

For some time Zeppelins have been bombing Salonica-, and now one of them —and nearly all its crew —has paid the penalty, owing to Salonica's gunfire. Off the Schleswig coast the Navy, represented by a light cruiser, has added to its bag by shooting down another Zeppelin. Tlie Danish story, of Gennan naval activity in the Baltic is likely enough; let us hope that British submarines are at the bottom of it.