THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XC, Issue 89, 13 October 1915, Page 6

THE WAR

Tf the Entente were to stand. right oufc of the Servian-German-Bulgarian campaign, or if the Entente were to enter heavily and seriously into it, either would be an understandable policy ; .but if a hybrid method is adopted, something falling between the two stools, nothing but failure can result. Britain and France should be either right into these operations, or right out of them; and that remark applies to Italy also. Judging by the news of yesterday and preceding days, one would have thought that the Salonika disembarkation would not have been^ undertaken without a guarantee of Italian aid; Italy's assistance appeared to be almost a sine qua non. But in the latest newspaper comments there is a tone of doubt, and a tendency to call upon the other fellow, that are not reassuring ; and it is much to be hoped that the Entente Governments have co-operated and co-ordinated much more closely and effectively than the newspaper comments suggest. Paris, newspapers (which, of course, may alto gether fail to reflect the Governmental minds of the Entente) comment on "tho undesirableness of weakening the western defensive to despatch trooDS to tho Balkans," and raise the question what Italy, Britain^ and Russia are prepared to do The Times also sounds the loudest note of criticism yet heard. If it is true that the Franco-British force now in Servian Macedonia simply dashed in there without a defined plan, the policy savours too much of adventure. After the Gallipoli experience, it is hard to believe that such an incident would be repeated. Still, there is a suggestion that the co-operation of the Governments and military commands of the Quadruple Entente is neither close uor complete. In this respect, Germany and Austria, with an almost unified control, are able to use their force to better effect. If the Quadruple Entente ia acting as"_a series of loosely-attached units, it is giving too much away. A French writer calls for "a permanent high war council." As a welcome counter-blast to the uneasy questions of the Parisian press, comes the statement of the French Premier that Britain, France, and Russia are in " complete accord," that Russia will immediately throw forces against Bulgaria, and that " ample troops are available." In using the word "ample" M. Viviani presumably means troops ample for a full-powered (not a halfpowered) intervention in the Balkans. A most encouraging element in his statement is the Russian expedition against Bulgaria. The only fly in the ointment is the absence of any mention of Italy. How many troops would be "ample" for the purposes of the Servian-German-Bulgarian campaign? Colonel Repington declares that Servia's chance of resistance is not great unless 300,000 Allied troops speedily come to her aid. The essential factors are strength and speed; a belated arrival would endanger the Servian position. Colonel Repington's statement that 300,000 men are needed is based on military data, on which this witness is, or ought to be, an expert. When he goes further and suggests that the Entente can view without alarm a German army in Constantinople, it seems that he does not attach sufficient weight to the factor of the Suez Canal and all that it means to the British Empire and the fighting forces of the Entente. Apparently his counter-move would be a Japanese army. But Japan is a long way from the canal. And it is undeniable that the main argument for a fullpowered intervention by the Entente in the Servian-German-Bulgarian sphere is the principle that the first line of defence of the Suez Canal is in the Servian hills. Given a secure place in Asiatic Turkey, Germany's first aim would be a land attack to cut the Suez Canal, and thereby impair British sea power and mobility. This i& the greatest blow that Germany could strike the British Empire i and other objective such a* Meiopotftmk, though imperttat, are

subordinate^ Germany calculates that if "the neck of the British Empire" were cut at Suez, then Egypt, Arabia, and India would fall like ripe fruit. Without waiting to try the pros and cone, of the conclusion, it is wise to face the premises of the argument, and to make sure that the arm which defended Egypt and the canal in the early stages of this year is in nowise weakened. That arm no longer strikes at Suez; it strikes in Gallipolli ; and, if a vigorous Balkan campaign has been planned, it will shortly be felt in Macedonia. Since the Gallipoli expedition developed, the Turks in the Sinai sphere have been too pre-occupied to make any serious attack on the Suez Canal; therefore, in a very real sense the fight for Egypt (which is the fight ,for Australasia and the Empire) is being fought in Gallipoli, and even Servia. By a preventive blow in Macedonia, backing up the Serbs, the Entente would be endeavouring to I counter the German effort to attain in Turkey a strategic position from which Germany could strike at the neck of the Empire, at Egypt, and at India. Another fact of first importance is that, according to the Servian Legation in London, Bulgaria has taken the plunge and has attacked Servia. Surely this must, bring in Greece. Bulgaria is attacking in the direction of Vrania, a Servian town on the all-important Vardar railway to Salonika, situated between Nish and Uskub, and nearly due west of the Bulgarian capital. It -is reported that at another point a Bulgarian band of irreguUirs cut, but did not hold, the railway. A cabled statement that French artillery is co-operat-ing with the Serbs may mean artillery that has been for some time on the "Danube. The interpretation that this is newly-arrived artillery is discounted by a further statement that the Entente troops have not yet left Salonika. How is the Servian defence progressing? German and Servian reports conflict. They agree about the German occupation of Belgrade, but not about much else. The Germans claimed to have occupied heights south of ' Belgrade; the Servians now declare that they have thrown the Germans back on the suburbs of Belgrade. Servia also claims that she 'repulsed all attacks on her Save and Drina (that is, north-west) fronts. Apparently, the • Germans t operating more easterly than the Austrians, got across the Danube at Belgrade and east thereof. It is perfectly clear that the battle for the Morava tributary, whose valley leads into the heart of Servia, has begun in earnest. The Morava flows into the Danube some thirty miles east of Belgrade. A little west of it is an important Servian railway which touches the Danube at Smederevo (Semendria). A little east of it is another tributary of the Danube, the Mlava. In the area between the Morava and the Mlava the Servians, according to their report, threw the Germans back across the Danube. And, according to the same Report, the railway to Smederevo must be still in Servian hands, for a German detachment that reached Smederevo perished there, or were drowned in the river. (Yet the Germans claim that they stormed Smederevo.) Paris says that Mackensen's losses were very heavy. Germany's claim to have captured heavy guns may be quite true. British naval guns and other heavy guns had been placed on the Danube; and the removal of a gun of position is such an undertaking that some heavy pieces may easily have been left behind in positions not far from the river. In >1914 some of the French big guns had to be abandoned to the Austrians. This is inseparable from the fortunes of war. Concerning the attacks on Entente diplomacy, it is noteworthy that Sir Edward Grey has promised a statement on the Balkan situation, and is tackling the .cotton question with new vigour. On the west, as well as on the east front, heavy German losses are reported. If the Grand Duk© Nicholas is given the Russian command in the Balkans, the fact will be a further appeal to Balkan Slavdom, and will probably be of political rather than of military importance. A Reuter message affirms that Rumania, in her own time, will join the Entente. Perhaps the Russian offensive against Bulgaria will expedite her intervention.-