PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume LXXXIX, Issue 144, 19 June 1915, Page 5

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

MANY FRONTS— ONE STRUGGLE THE SINGLE STRATEGY PEINCIPLE. WHY THE ALLIES' OFFENSIVE IS DELAYED. It is difficult to realise, except after some study, that the whole of the great series of conflicts being carried out in Europe, from the Belgian coast at Nieuport to the Turkish coast at the Dardanelles, is really a single struggle, not only in international significance, but in military fact. But a realisation of that principle helps greatly in a proper understanding of current, events. Fortunately (considering what a huge extent this European field covers), the various other campaigns being fought in Africa., in Mesopotamia) and elsewhere, and even to a large extent in the present circumstances of inactivity, the naval deadlock need not bo considered. The mastery of the sea has, of course, an enormous, even a paramount, influence on the course of the war ; but as it is at present an accomplished fact it is a constant factor, and its effect is already fully realised. The minor campaigns already referred to cannot seriously affect the chief struggle one way or the other. The Dardanelles campaign enters into the general scheme largely because of its influence upon the Balkan neutrals and the future helping of Russia. If Germany and Austria were not engaged in a struggle which requires their utmost strength, it would be possible to treat them as taking part in two or three separate wars, each with its own broad strategical plan ; and the failure or success of one at any particular time might not necessarily mean the success or failure of the other. But this is a fight to the' death, and at the very outset Germany saw that it would be one war, involving one strategy. She set out, according to the generally stated plan, to fight her enemies on what is probably the only way a sunerior combination can be overcome — by "defeating them in detail." France, being the first afoot, was to be despatched first; hence the shortcut, through Belgium, resulting in Britain's intei'vention. This was a factor which Germany hoped to diplomatically avoid ; Britain was to have been dealt with later After France had been beaten. Germany proposed to deal with Russia, whose ready army was to have been held in check by Austria. It must be admitted that the German (rust in Russia's slowness to mobilise was not very gravely misplaced, as far as it concerned a great addition to the Russian strength as it appeared on paper. Germany thus treated the whole strugle as a single one, and regarded her two frontiers as two flanks of a greatfront, and intending, after inflicting a crushing defeat upon one, to awing round and deal likewise with the other. That her plans failed wab due to Belgium and Britain. The first force attacked was not, and is not, defeated; and therefore the other could not be. Germany and Austria cannot defeat all the Allies at once ; they are not strong enough ; nor can they now leave one front to such an extent as to win on the other. It is true that they have, during the past six weeks, inflicted a terrible setback upon Russia ; but Russia is not defeated, nor are the enemy likely to find means to achieve their object upon a nation so large, when it 's determined to fight to the end The problem facing Austria and Germany is now greatly complicated by the entry of Italy and the threat of the Balkans, for with these menaces on their flanks, it becomes more and more necessary to defeat Russia in the least possible time. ALLIES MUST STRIKE TOGETHER. That is briefly the theory of the single strategy from the point of view of the enemy ; and notwithstanding that in its original form the plan failed, it has been modified upon such lines tliat the Germans have been able to maintain a marvellously successful defence upon the west, while carrying out an almost purely aggressive campaign with more mobile forcejs againbt the Russians. , The single strategy idea is carried out ,

by the Allies also. As far as the west, crn front is concerned, the French. British, and Belgian armies, are virtually fu&ed into one. with a combined control and a collaborated s-trategy. But up till the pi£sent there has not arrived a, lime when all the Allies could say that the moment had come for co-operation in the putting into effect a Pingle ptratfgical idea in which all should co-operate. The casual observer who noted the throwing back of the Russians in Oalicia, with the loss of men and .materials, and of military advantages for which Russia, had fought for half a year, very naturally a&ked why the British and tho French did not strike then But it was not the ripe moment. The German concentration to aid the Austrians in clearing the Carpathians was not made at tho expense of leaving the western front hopelepsly weak ; the Germans are too good soldierh for that. They leffc a defence winch they believed would hokll against an assault of just the kind proposed by the sympathetic onlooker. The battering-ram was constructed of stuff gathered from all parts of the Russian front, and from the unused reserves inGermany and Austria, with perhaps a., proportion from the western front It' came into being at a time when new* German armies were to have been ready, just as new British, and probably new French and Russian, armies were brought iuto_ being ; and as far as those new armies were concerned, the German forces were in a position to be used Consequently, to hurl a general attack upon the western front might, and probably would., have been only to waste if upon a line of defences already thoroughly tested and found worthy of. attack only in the most favourable circumstances. It might, probably would, have failed ; and an untold amount of preparatory work, during which the Allies* have been gaining in strength as compared with the enemy, would have to be done all over again. The question remaining ie, what is the propitious moment, which has at various times been mentioned by the chief commanders a* eagerly awaited. It is the day when, by force of circumstances. Germany shall be stagnant upon ' both front*, and when at the same time i all the Allies can strike together; and' that day is hard to fix. At a pinch, tho Allies oould probably strike at any time, though recent events lead to the belief | that the munitions crisis in Great Britain has affected the immediate attacking, power of the British The real difficulty; lies in the East, where the Russians have, never yet been able to hold the enemy, upon the defensive over a. sufficiently! ■ "long period. Merely to stop th© AustroGerman offensive is not sufficient Tho enemy must be stopped and held in such N a way! that he is unable, to prepare for another attack, while Russia herself recuperates and gets ready to launch forward. Unfortunately, events have bo far always taken a different course. The Russians have stopped the attack; but during the recuperative period the enemy, has made the recovery firßt. and. got in a fresh blow The cntrjr of Italy has greatly improved Ruesia's chances, because it may at any time compel Austria to removo forces from the Russian front. Yet even, her great blow would be struck to the greatest advantage of the Allies if it. came when Russia was fresh and aggressive, instead of as a relief while Russia was staggering under heavy blows, and that chiefly because, though Russia, may, stagger, she cannot be knocked out. A BALKAN SENSATION. The Balkan States have consistently, kept the Allies on tenterhooks by their, failure to declare what they will do. There has, however . been a good deaC of evidence lately that Germany and Austria have been very nervous about the intervention of iiumania and Bulgaria—perhaps more nervous than they were about Italy. Th© latest news on this subject is that Turkey is giving Bulgaria "the whole of the right bank of the Maritza River, including a portion of Adri.inopjc." This means the whole of the Turkish territory now west of the Maritz? River, and retained after tliu Baikan ware in order that, the fortress of Adrianople should have a useful area of ground in front of it to make it useful to Turkey The negotiations have been carried out by Austria and Germany » If they succeed, the bribe to Bulgaria may be sufficient to cause her to stay her hand, and this will influence Rumania. The whole proceeding is much like the attempt to bribe Italy Germany woulu have given away Austria** territory ; now the two big Allies givo away Turkish— in each case to save the subject of the operation from attack. Tho territory under discussion was actually Bulgarian property after the first Balkan war. having been taken from Turkey by the -Treaty of London. j But in the second war. when Bulgaria • was occupied with Servia and Rumanin, the Turks marched upon Adrianople and seized it. The fact that Adrianople is really in the wrong hands now (according to the Bulgarian view) tends rather to reduce the value of the Turkish concession involved in giving it up. Another significant item in the news about the, Balkans is that Bulgarian and Rumanian Ministers have been invited by the Kniser to visit the Garman military headquarters. CRISIS BEFORE LEMBERG. The Russian situation in the neighbourhood of Lemberg is growing moro critical, and a Petrogiad correspondent) is endeavouring to lift the veil of phophecy. The battle which is about to begin will, he says, be r such that what has gone before will be as affairs of outposts. Tho occasion and the objective are worthy of the greatest possible effort, and the prophecy has a sound of reasonableness. Tho great battle is located by the correspondent at Grodek. a railway town in a littlo group of lakes, fifteen miles westward of Lemberg : and an Austrian report sta.tes that this town has already been reached. Further northwest fierce straggles are in progress- some miles east of the San j and the Russians appear to have been compelled to t|ivo up a considerable part, of the river line. According to a Berlin report, they are; forced back into Russian territory in that portion of the line duo north of Jaroslau.