PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume LXXXVIII, Issue 86, 8 October 1914, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

ALOES' TURNING MOVEMENT AND GERMANY'S REPLY. "On our left wing, north of the Oise, the action continues with increasing violence." This extract from a French official message, read in conjunction with \ the geographical news in other cablegrams, shows that the turning movement of the Allies has not made any appreciable movement north-east-ward in the last few days. The effort of the Allies to advance north-east, and thereby turn the Germans' position on the Somme and the Oise, is for the present being met by German reinforcements, and the result is a continuous prolongation of the fighting-line northward. In fact, it appears to have extended as far north as the French fortified 'town of Lille and its neighbourhood (Roubaix, Tourcoing, Armenti■eres), close to the Belgian boundary. FRENCH AND BELGIAN THEATRES. Taking a line northward from La Fere, on the Oise, we find that it passes close ,io some now familiar centres — St. Qttentin (about 13 miles from La Fere), Cambrai (about 23 miles from St. Quentin), and Lille (about 33 miles from Cambrai). If the fighting line goes any farflier north it will be in Belgium. Practically, it has linked up with Belgiufff already. In fact, Lille is about equt-distant from the Oise (at La Fere) and ' from Antwerp. In other words, the; seventy miles of front between the Oise and Lille is about equal in length to the distance that separates Lille and Antwerp. Brussels is nearer Lille. These, of course, are only map distances, and are quoted to show how rapidly the campaigns in North France and in North Belgium — which were always interdependent — tend to merge. In their effort ;to block the Allies' turning move* iuent. the Germans, whose original lines in France ran east and west, have faced Toufia till on their right the line is north andjteouthj and they are straining every nerve to prevent their northern extremity being bent back eastward. Until the Allies can succeed in doing thab, their turning movement cannot be Regarded as completed. It is a great contest 'in numbers, mobility, and supply organisation, and the Germans will now be reinforcing their right ; not only from the,!,centre but from Belgium. This is sufficiently indicated by the Ostend cablegram published to-day. Evidently the Allies, will need tho fresh troops from India. ' DECISION TURNS ON NUMBERS. In August the Germans used Belgium to make an enveloping movement to turn the Hank of the Allies, who retreated. Tn September-October the Allies appear to be on the brink of using Belgium for a, similar counter-stroke. Since they took up the Meuse-Oise-Somme position, the Germans nave not lost any great amount of ground, and they appear to be able to keep _ori extending their line north, so that the Belgian battles with the British anil fne French may be- fought again. But this kind of warfare can only be continued with, huge numbers. Can Germany keep the Russian campaign going, and at the same time find enough men. to counter every successive turning movement of the Franco-British Allies? From Lille to Alsace the line is enormously long. Unless the Allies can se-. cure decisive results on the right wing, some change of plans must be looked for. Once more a heavy silence hangfi over the centre, -One advantage of the extension northward of the Allies' columns is that they may restore, and cover, communication with the .northern ports in the Channel, which provide the quickest route for British reinforcements. j AFRICAN PREPARATIONS BY " . - GERMANY. German South-West Africa, it is I stated, is much more heavily armed than liatl been suspected. Ten thousand German troops, specially strong in artillery and horse and camel forces, are prepared to"inva<4e the South African Union with sixty six-gun batteries and the usual German profusion of machine guns. According to the current Statesman's Year Book, the normal German forces in South-West Africa are "about 150 officers and 2000 other ranks." So Germany — who, of course, never started the war! — had taken the precaution to multiply five-fold her normal garrison in South-West Africa. No doubt it was hoped to raise .the Boers, and to make the German ten thousand the nucleus of a rebel army. Concerning ail the intrigues and events leading up to the present position, much probably remains to be written. It will be remembered that General! 'Beyers's passivity argument was based on the suggestion that the Germans would remain on the defensive. From the early stages, however, the reports indicate that they made minor offensive movements, and now their aggressive policy has disclosed itself in the capture of two squadrons oE South African Mounted Rifles and a section of artillery. This reverse to the Union forces should be a tonic. Even a rigidly defensive Boer could hardly stand that. There are, indeed, enough well-armed Germans in SouthWest Africa- to complete the cementing of Boer and Briton. By a peculiar fate, almost every blow that the Kaiser has struck has made for the greater unity of the British Empire. JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES Japan's seizure of the Marshall Islands may again arotiso American suspicions concerning Japanese designs in the Pacific. It is true that the Japanese navy department explains that the occupation is for military purposes and is not permanent, but some sections of the Dnited States people hesitated to accept Japan's assurance that she would not annex Kaio-chau, and their restlessness will be renewed at this incursion into the Pacific, for the most disturbing factor, in the American mind, is Japanese penetration of that ocean. Recent diplomatic negotiations between j London and Washington concerning the holding-up of copper cargoes in neutral ships were conducted in a good spirit on both sides, and it is highly desirable that that spirit should continue. The United States' actions as a neutral mean much to the Empire. Consider, for instance, the position of armed merchantmen. The case is thus stated in a contemporary : "The United States' decision not to treat armed merchantmen as ships of v/ar is eminently reasonable. Incidentally, it should suit Britain very well. Merchant ships of a belligerent nation, which may enter United _ States ports, are to be given all the privileges ordinarily (Possessed by such ships, even if they carry guns. But the guns must not be more than, six-inch, they must not be mounted forward, and no large store of ammunition must be carried. That is to say, it must be clear that the armament is purely for defence, in, case of need. Now. those British liners which are armed for defence, comply strictly with these requirements. Their guns are 4.7-inch only, and they are mounted at the stern of the vessels. On the other hand, it is exceedingly unlikely that any of the German "converted" privateer-cruisers coujd come within the description, even if it was pretended that their armament was only for defence* These, therefore, will be

treated as warships, which means that they will not be allowed to make a United States port their base of operations, though they may take in supplies there. They will not be allowed to stay long in such ports, or even to wait for a long period outside, in order to snap up some British merchantman that may be lying within."