THE FUTURE OF CHINA.

Evening Post, Volume LXXXIII, Issue 8, 10 January 1912, Page 6

THE FUTURE OF CHINA.

"No one with any regard for his reputation cares to commit himself to predictions about China, . which is a country where the unexpected always happens," remarks Archibald R. Oolquhoun in the December Fortnightly, and a similar sentiment is expressed by Sir Henry Blake in the December iesue of the Nineteenth Century. "At a crisis like this," he says, "no man at a distance — and probably no man on the spot outside the inner circle — can venture to form an opinion as to the fate of the dynasty." Mr. Colquhoun knows his China well, and so does Sir Henry Blake, for he was once Governor of Hongkong. This authority mentions incidentally that within the past thirteen centuries no Chinese dynasty has lasted longer than 287 years. The Mings were supremo for 255 years, and the Manchus have held the Chinese in submission for 267 years. "Will this," asks Sir Henry, "be considered a factor in the mind of Yuan Shih Kai (commonly termed China's Strong Man) ? And will he come as ; a deliverer, or shall we see the strong man gratify a possible ambition after the manner of Eastern strong men all down the centuries? In either case, given sufficient money, I should plump for his chances. A successful revolution of discordant States (the Chinese provinces) would assuredly result in chaos." In the meantime Dr. Sun Vat Sen, a clever man, but not regarded as a genius by British critics who know his record, has been proclaimed as President of the Republic. Thifi title has a large sound, but it may not mean much to close students of China. So far, only two of the eighteen provinces which constitute the main part of the Chinese Empire have declared themselves republican, and it has to be remembered that the people of these provinces have differences in language and customs sufficient to furnish a for-, midable task for any great men who' aspire to the formation of a Republican Federation. Up to the present the. provinces have enjoyed a liberal measure of self-government. The people have been "squeezed" for the Imperial tribute (Customs duties) and for the "commission" of tho governors and subordinate officials responsible for tho collection of the tribute, but, in a general sense, the provinces have been at liberty to manage their own affairs. This making of, republics in China is being keenly watched by Europe. If tho provinces are to be free to arrango their own Customs duties, what is to become of the Imperial Customs as guarantee for Chinese loans? What about foreign "concessions" and "sphei-e* of influence"? ¦ Baih Jjj^ Henri; Blako^nd^ Mx. ,Cojlg> _

houn agree that the commercial, indußtrial, and political activities of foreignera have quickened the national spirit in China and given tho people a hunger for a new regime. "China," says Mr. Colqulioun, "has seen the establishment and maintenance of forced extra-territorial rights within her borders ; she has had to submit to the loss of slices of territory, evan within the eighteen provinces ; she has acquiesced perforce in the pre-emption by foreigners of special eights over 'epheros of influence* ; and shei has watched with growing 6ub> picion and anger the economic conquest of large sections of her country through railway and mining concessions aud loans." This foreign scheme of "peaceful penetration" has now thoroughly disturbed thoughtful patriotic Chinese. They see their Empiro as an emporium for the people of the West. The struggle is now for a change of administration, but many of the beet minds among tho reformers are divided about the shape which any new government ehould take. The present conflict is not bo much between Imperialists and reformers as between reformers and other reformers. One Reform Party aims at a limited monarchy, and the other favours a republican form of government. Many of the "Intelligents," educated hu Japan or America, favour republicanism, but this educated class is a very small fraction of that population of four hundred millions (equal to New Zealand's total multiplied by four hundred), and' among these teeming millions the monarchical principle is interwoven with the social, religious, and political life. Mr. Colquhoun gives an opinion that if Yuan Shih Kai persists in propping dp tho Manchu dynasty the Empire will break up into at least two parts, northern China remaining monarchical and the centre and south setting up a republic or republics. Ho submits that any such settlement cannot be permanent, as it would inevitably open the door for foreign intervention.