Evening Post. FRIDAY, JULY 9, 1909. THE COMMERCIAL SKY.

Evening Post, Volume LXXVIII, Issue 8, 9 July 1909, Page 6

Evening Post. FRIDAY, JULY 9, 1909. THE COMMERCIAL SKY.

— ■* — Though the pressure of hard times is being more acutely felt just now, especially by those least able to bear it, than ever before, and nobody expects that there will be any appreciable alleviation until the winter is over, it is some consolation to be able to point to evidence that the spring may bring relief. The clouds are still black overhead, but there is a rift here and there towards tho horizon which one may reasonably expect to see enlarged until blue sky and sunshine are admitted to gladden tho earth once more. It will be remembered that the precursor of our present trouble was the financial crash in Wall-street nearly two years ago. Even after what had originated as panic in the United States had spread to England in the shape of impaired confidence, restricted enterprise, and stagnant trado, we were gravely assured by our Premier that our own position was absolutely secure. The idea that the purchasing power of our best customer could receive a severe blow without ruffling the surface of our prosperity was an absurdity . which nothing but the lazy credulity born of that prosperity would have enabled any considerable portion of an intelligent community to entertain. After the event, at any rate, we can all be wise. We can see that, much as our own extravagance and speculation may have aggravated the mischief, the root 01 it lay in the same uncontrollable agencies which had first troubled New York and London. In the United States trade has long since recovered, and during the last few months has been expanding at a very rapid rate. England is slower to recover, just as she was slower to succumb, but the returns for June, which are cabled us today, show that even there the tide has turned, and so far as New Zealand produce is concerned the recovery of the London market is already quite sufficient to change our prospects from gloomy to promising. The matter is fairly put in the readdressed to the annual meeting of the National Bank of New Zealand by the chairman, Air. Logan, as repoited in one of yesterday's cablegrams, "The dominant note in New Zealand during the past year had," said Mr. Logan, "been the financial stringency, mainly due to a reduction in the value of the export surplus. Instead of there being a comfortable margin of profit to cover interest on loans, New Zealand's exports had done little more than provide the cost."' But the steady improvement which the exports have re- j cently shown justifies, in Mr. Logan's opinion, "the hope of an early return of New Zealand's accustomed prosperity."' This view is fully borne out by the returns, for the past quarter, which we published yesterday. The figures show a marked advance in all our staple exports on those for the corresponding quarter of last year. Dairy produce, which had been specially depressed in 1908 by the drought at the beginning of the year, shows the groatest proportionate advance. The exports of butter and cheese for the June quarter of last year were £85,506 and £166,080 respectively ; now they have risen to £159,473 and £276,792. The increase in tho combined value of these exports is close on 60 per cent. Wool shows an advance from £978,874 to £1,355,291. It is appropriate that our largest export should show the largest increase. The rate of increase is nearly 40 per cent., and if maintained throughout the year, the gain to the country on this article alone would be more than a million pounds. Hemp and limber appear to be tho only important exports which do not chow an advance, and the aggregate increase for the month of June is £255,288, and for the quarter is £1,379,555. It is hardly necessary to say that the position is such as still to require the utmost caution, and that there is absolutely nothing, in the improved outlook to justify the slightest slackening* of the effort? which are now being made to relieve the prevailing distress. The figures which we have quoted do not mean any increase of work for the unemployed during the next two or threo months, but they do mean that the •people who have been proclaiming, not without an eye on the political aspect of 'their prophecy, that the condition of tho country is proceeding from bad to worse, have overshot the mark. Tho clouds arc bieaking in spite of tho doubts and fears of the timid and the sceptical, and it may even be found by the time the bky is clear again that we havo all learned a valuable lesson at a much cheaper price than many other ,opu,airiee have-bad feo pay fov it,