BALKAN TROUBLES.

Evening Post, Volume LXXV, Issue 49, 27 February 1908, Page 6

BALKAN TROUBLES.

The stone thrown by Austria has caused more than a ripple of excitement in tho pool of international politics. We see first Austria, then Germany, endeavouring by fair words to restore tho norrilal calm in a new situation. Austria would generously agree to the Servian demand for a railway from the Danube to the West ; Germany would chivalrously propose a means for tho pacification of Macedonia — all flam : diplomatists may he mocked, but they are not deceived. T,ho Austro-German policy, like the Russian, is unalterable ; and the course is persistently pursued with whatever tacking a shift of wind may necessitate. Austria, Germany, and Eussia : all are pressing forward to the Mediterranean, the sea which to Central Europe means new wealth and stable power. Germany is the unseen ruler of the Porte. No act of importance is undertaken by Turkey without the authority or control of Germany. Austria is pushed forward as Germany's pawn until the time comes to deploy bigger pieces — just as Russia pushes forward Bulgaria. Some day the Austrian Empire will break up, or be broken up : it is no longer to Germany's interest to preserve it ; and Western Europe cannot longer control the Centre. The breach may come quietly — by the acknowledgment of Hungarian independence and the creation of minor Slav States, sooner or later to be "protected" or gobbled by the big ones behind. Germany and Russia mean in the end to divide the peninsula : it will take time ; but there are centuries of time in prospect. As a beginning Austria, if kept intact, may be pushed South, exchanging her German provinces for Macedonia. Her 25 per cent, of German population will be acceptable for the aggrandisement of the Kaiser's Empire. Austria, while Germany's ally, is also her rival, and perfectly cognisant of her policy. Tho Austrian Government, however, has a competitive policy of its own. That is to absorb Montenegro, Albania, and Macedonia while retaining the German provinces to the North. But the German plan is sounder. Austria is likely to split on the lines of her leading races ; and the Slavs will probably agree to cede the German provinces if they see a chance to establish a Slav empire on the ruins of old Austria. All this is for the future. T}ic business of diplomacy is to gain every inch that the present state will yield in the direction of that future. Hence 'Austria and Geimany work together at the demolition of Turkey, and man-h hand-in-hand lowiiids the sea at fSalonica. What is giiined is a gam for Austria now, and Austria is content. It will be a gain for Geimany Inter, and Germany is content. The mills of empire grind

slowly. The apparition ot New Servia disturbed Austria and Germany alike : it was anti-German ; and the Serbs value ' and aro extending their independence. They blocked the Austrian path South. Now Austria has gone round the obstacle, through her Bosnian protectorate ; and it seems impossible diplomatically to stop her progress. From the coveted Salonica tbe railway goes north like a Y. At Uskub in Macedonia it branched off to ths right through Servia, and so past Belgrade to Vienna. The left branch stopped short at Jenibazar, the chief town in tho Novibazar district, at the north of Macedonia. The Sultan's recent concession apparently empowers Austria to bridge tbe gap between Jenibazar and Sarajevo, in Bosnia, and so to Vienna; and ServLi sees that the new connection can be used to destroy her Macedonian trade and leavo her stranded. Hence the outcry. The Western Powers would protest ; but how can they? Turkey controls railway lights in her own provinces,. Western diplomacy blundeTed fatally in giving Austria the protectorate of Bosnia. But for that Bosnia also might ha^e been erected into an independent principality; and Bosnia, Servia, and Bulgaria could have been suppoited in independence, and kept as a permanent barrier across the peninsula. All that can bo dune now is to impede tho Austrian progress through Macedonia. Too lato British politician., understand that by weakening Turkey they have made tho Austro-German task easier. So in to-day's cable messages we see the British Foreign Secretary harking back, and suggesting that Turkish authority in Macedonia, should be restored. Sir ' Edward Grey mildly asks that the Powers should give "a collective guarantee that Turkey's dominions should not be interfered with from tho outside." Austria, and Germany must smile. Their supremacy depends on interference, and on fresh interference, and on continued interference. That is why they foment trouble in Macedonia — as everybody knows, -and as nobody can diplomatically prove.' Sir Edward Grey sees light too late in the day. Unless, through Russia's jealousy, the AustrcRussiar understanding has broken down, there is no hope of securing stable government in Macedonia until it comes through Austrian influence or an Austrian protectorate. And every year Western authority to interfere m the Balkans is growing less. Austria, Germany, and Russia are gradually taking up tile- position that east of the Adriatic and north of the Aegean ;'s their exclusive sphere of action. And even to strengthen Tureky in opposition is diflicult while Turkeyis controlled by Germany.