GERMANY IN EXTREMIS.

Dunstan Times, Issue 3142, 6 November 1922, Page 2

GERMANY IN EXTREMIS.

(By Sir Philip Gibbs). No serious mind in Kurope now underrates the gravity of the increasing economic collapse of Germany. It is still regarded with the greatest alarm hv business men as well as politicians in Kngland. Even in France and Bolgitun it is acknowledged by many people I have lately met. taht Germany must, be fiaved ai all costs from going so deep in the pit as Austria, though opinions differ as to her present conditions and as to the cause of her financial distress. Among people of exalted ranks tnere is undisguised fear of tragic, happenings n the coming winter. In an interview I bad with two of the most important officials of the Deutsche Bank this fear was frankly expressed With ;in emotion which broke down the usual reserve of such men. They received me in one waiting room of that vast palace of finance, which occupies it great block in Merlin and symbolises by its splendor and spaciousness the building of modern Germany, with all its wealth and power before the war. Glancing out of the window I saw the broad streets of Merlin, the high roofs and sculptured figures of many palaces and/ mansions. Tfhis city on which I gazed built of solid granite, more worthy of a great civilisation based on world-wide trade and prodigious energy in science .labor and military power, which seemed to lift its pride above all challenge of rivalry. Yet I was conscious in that room of the Deutsche Bank that all that German civilisation meant in trade, power, pride, material progress, knowledge, art and industry was slipping down a great pit like a mighty ship torpedoed at the engine room. The mark had fallen to 1900 to the dollar that day. There was a panic. on the exchange. Foreign delegates from France and Kngland were sitting in a. roam a few blocks away examining into Government derlarations of insolvency. And these two officials of the Deutsche Bank were confessing to mo their fears of irretrievable ruin and great misery among their people unless the Allies granted an immediate moratorium and a long loan. T'.iey explained their fears candidly. The frightful downfall of the 1 mark would mean that Germany could no longer buy foreign grain, which feeds the people to the amount of at least HO per cent, of their needs. They could no longer buy foreign coal, which now has practically replaced the coal deliveries made to France and to' Belglum to the amount of a< million tons weekly from England. Prices are soaring far beyond the scale of wages paid and the workers are already on short rations. The trade unions of Germany are already pressing for a new scale of wages beyond the possibility of payment except by a new flood of paper money, which would send the mark down again "The German people," said one of these officials of the Deutsche Bank, "have been orderly, industrious, and patient. For a time just after the armistice many of them were infected with a spirit of revolution and Bolshevism. Lt was natural after all their sufferings in that criminal war. But very quickly their old instincts of order and discipline reasserted themselves: they went back to work, hoping to be paid back by a decent reward of labor, by a fair measure of comfort, by a. sense of security and peace. They were willing to bear heavy burdens as the price of defeat and as an insurance of the future peace of Europe. "But what will happen if this winter, after real hardships already, they find themselves hungry, without warmth and light in their homes, with no reward for their labor except slave hours and burdens beyond human endurance? Hungry men get fierce. There is no reason or sanity among men who see their women weakening and their children without milk. Unless a respite is given to Germany the red flag will fly in Berlin and this country, which was the western bulwark against Bolshevism, will be prompt to anarchy." This man may have exaggerated the peril, but he spoke certainly with sincerity, and the emotion that stirred him profoundly was not false. The tear of revolution is on the lips of many men 1 have met in Berlin. Even the waiters at my hotel said the word as sufficient answer to my questions about the coming winter. One of them was a lieutenant in the German army before he served foreign visitors soup. I found this man shrewd politically and he astonished me by saying that the worst thing which could happen to" German would be the breakdown of the entente eordlale between France and Kngland. "If Kngland breaks with France." he said. "France will lie under no restraint for the full use of her military power to disrupt Germany. She would rather see the world in ruin than (Jermany prosperous', and will put forth such pressure that our economic life will be impossible. That will lead to one result, which is anarchy. Then (Jod help Europe." In the darkness of the railway platform at Cologne I had a long talk with one of the. porters who guarded the. bags. First, ho talked about the war, in which he bad been three times wounded on the Russian and British fronts. He was a tall, heavily built fellow, hut when be spoke, of bis strength in lifting a heavy load be struck his chest and said: "How can I keep strength in this body when I never feed it meat? That is the trouble of all of us of my class. The paper money we get is never enough, because prices always rise beyond our wages. Last year I earned 500 marks a week. Now I earn 1500. but they buy less than ever, and never do I eat meat. It costs 108 marks' for a pork chop. A suit of clothing costs 0000 marks. One egg is [) marks. Milk lor the children—how can we buy when a "pint costs I'2o marks? It is ' pretty hard for us now. It is going to be harder, because the mark will drop down like autumn leaves. In this coming winter there will be bad times and trouble. We shan't starve without a struggle." He spoke of war again and laughed when be said Germany has fought too many enemies at the same time. One day, he said, Germany will recruit Russians and train them with German officers. Then they would fight on more equal terms. "Franco forces into that idea. She will give us no hope in peace." Standing up there in the darkness listening to this man's words 1 had an uneasy feeling that lie was not speaking for himself alone, but expressing ideas of masses of men like himself, the workingmen of Germany. His last thouj. \t for the peace of the world. Peraips it is not widespread. I believe the German people on the whole, apart from thv crazy minority, which is still dangerous. <V*ire to produce as much as any people in +he world who have suffered the ngon.v of war, but agree, with the little official of the Deutsche Hank that hungry men get fierce. And' if Germany gets hungry her people will turn from hopes of seeing any way of escape, even through blood and fire. The German people themselves, as 7 have found during :t visit to Berlin, are honestly convinced that an immense catastrophe lies ahead of them unless they get immediate and considerable relief. They believe the very foundation of social life and security

will crash if France is allowed to carry out her threats of inflicting new penalties and seizing the sources of her industrial energies. T have found deep pessimism among people of humble life, such as laborers and hotel waiters, railway men and shop assistants. As yet Germany is not so hungry as the station porter, as a nation, and doubtless it is only in her cities where they have to stint and scrape that thev don't eat meat. One doesn't see any outward sign. Berlin these summer months is a city thronged with folk afraid of the future when they think about it, but not thinking much of troubles ahead, spending what money they have in the present to amuse themselves while it lasts. 1 explained' last week that it is folly for them to save their money in a spirit of thrift because' 1.000 marks in money may buy only 500 marks worth on Thursday, and purchasing value dwindles like snow in spring time. One sees therefore in Berlin much spending, not only by the new rich and the profiteering, of whom there are many, but by the great mass of middle class folk who formerly made thrift the first law of family life. That is demoralising to any nation, and Germany is losing one virtue that was hers. As yet I think the bulk of the people haven't been pinched by the odd turn of the screw. There is more suffering in England than in Germany. There is more laughter in Germany than in England. Their social way of life is more compensation at less cost. But it seemed almost certain to them that all their present state is on shifting sands, that industry and the whole structure of civilisation will have a landslide if it gets one more push from Fate or France. There is a party -n France determined to give them that push if it can, but there is also, I am certain, a very large number of intelligent moderate minded men in France who realise the peril of such a policy and won't support it. It is impossible to prophesy whether this moderate influence will act as a restraining force, but I am bound! to add that I think the worst will happen to Germany and the rest of Europe unless the United States intervenes as a balancing power. Germany is on the edge of a great climax. In six months' time she will fall over the edge unless there is a new tremendous act of leadership in Europe, and there will be such a mighty fall as will shake the very centre of the world and the civilised States. Arrangement made by the representatives on the Commission in Paris was a sign of an awakening realisation by the Allied Powers, but it, is only a temporary postponement of the problem. Meanwhile German printing presses are working overtime on new issues ol notes. Prices and wages are, however, in deadly competition, so that an even greater output of marks will be necessary. There can only be one result. which is an even greater collapse of marks on foreign exchanges, until German money becomes like Austrian and Russian Unless Germany can stop this innation of paper money she is doomed as an economic Power, and her proclaim themselves to' be helpless to do so. They are on the horns of a monstrous dilemma. If they stop printing paper money there will be immediate distress and unemployment in Germany, leading to riot and social disorder, of which they are terrified. If thev continue using' the printing press the' call for marks will lead to failure in international trade, with the same result in the long run. In either ease they do not see a way of escape. The vicious circle is a complete tragedy.