The Daily Telegraph. SATURDAY, JULY 21, 1900. CURRENT TOPICS.

Daily Telegraph (Napier), Issue 9821, 21 July 1900, Page 4

The Daily Telegraph. SATURDAY, JULY 21, 1900. CURRENT TOPICS.

The proposals of the Premier with regard to the defences of the colony I will doubtless be in the main agreed to. Some of the details may be altered, but broadly the scheme suggests itself as statesmanlike. Yet on the other hand it is in reality an indictment of the Premier's own tactics in the past. He has persistently opposed anything like reasonable provision for defence, and until now he has never condescended to be anything like accurate in his assertions concerning it. Indeed, even now we do not think he can be accused of being quite candid. He says that we have in the colony "thousands of men capable of bearing arms," which is a very moderate way of stating the case, but that we have rifles for only a fourth of them. The plain meaning of that ought to be that we have in the colony at present sufficient modern rifles for arming one in every four of our able-bodied males. Well, subject to correction, we assert that there is nothing like that number of good modern rifles in New Zealand.

As a matter of fact the Premier himself affords proof that our contention could not be gainsaid. He says that we now require thirty thousand magazine rifles. Assuming that these are required for the threefourths of our men able to bear arms, but for whom no arms are available, a reasonable deduction from the Premier's "words is that he intends to convey that we own already fifteen thousand such rifles. We are convinced that nothing of the kind is the case. And it is the Premier's fault that things are as they are. As Minister of Defence it was his duty to see that we acquired a sufficiency of modern rifles, and he failed to perform it. Butteven more serious omissions were made. Since the Premier became Minister of Defence the stock of ball cartridges was allowed to become so depleted that on one occasion there were not sufficient to serve for an annual rifle competition, and a supply had to be hurriedly obtained from a neighboring colony.

But, ignoring past mistakes, and taking into account the Premier's praiseworthy attitude at present, we are driven to conclude that he still fails to grasp the situation properly. Any scheme for national defence to be acceptable should really recognise what the Premier nominally bases his views upon—the number of our male population able to bear arms. If we include within that category all between the ages of twenty and forty there are nearly a quarter of a million such men available kx case of need. This is not a guess, but a conclusion from official figures. Thus we find that the proportion of males between the ages named to the total population is roughly thirty per cent, the exact figures being 29-96. If we put down the population at 750,000, therefore, the proportion of males between twenty and forty is 225,000. If we knock off a third of these as incapables, or as otherwise exempt, the residue is a hundred and fi''ty thousand men. The circumstances call for a wise scheme of militia service.

Japan is evidently quite prepared to quarrel with Russia at short notice. Our cable messages to-day, by recording the accusations made by Japan against her northern rival, plainly indicate the temper of the Islanders. It is moreover possible that these accusations are true, in which case the allies will be in a peculiar position. It is certain that neither the American nor the British peoples will for long tolerate cooperation with a Power which permits its troops to massacre women and children. The details of the alleged massacre, as derived from Japanese sources, are simply horrifying. Take for example the story ot the junk loaded with three • hundred dead bodies and burned. If "that is true, and if it is to be taken aa a sample of what is to be expected from Russia, the foe the Powers ought to be attacking is Rus sia itself, which has by its intrigues and its dishonesty of purpose largely helped to bring about the present awful condition of affairs in the FatEast.

On the other hand it must be borue in mind that the accusations made may to a considerable extent be due to racial hatred aggravated by international differences. Japan and Russia have been for so long regarding each other as enemies that the mutual dangers they are now called upon to face do not suffice to reconcile them even temporarily. And it is not difficult to see that Japan is also resenting the claims which the German and Russian troops have been making on each other's behalf. One does not need to read between the lines to discern that, for the statement that the Japanese, Russian, and German commanders have now ceased their tactics of self-praise, and are seeking to ensure harmony by testifying in favor of each other, is but another way of saying that petty jealousy has been displayed to such an extent as to threaten the concord which should exist, and which it is now apparently the aim of the Powers involved to restore. Consequently it may be wu;e to hold the judgment in suspense with regard to the atrocities alleged against the Russians. It later news should tend to corroborate the assertions made we

may expect to see the other Powers protesting against Russian methods. But the position revealed by the fact of the accusations being made, whether they are true or false, shows upon what a slender thread hang any hopes we may have of the Powers agreeing among themselves when the Chinese j have been subdued. The very steps Russia is now compelled to take in consequence of the special effort made against her involve trouble in the near future. Manchuria is after all but another name for northern Corea, if we take into account the hopelessness of Japan's views upon the latter ii' Manchuria is filled with Russian troops. Hence we can well understand how Japanese politicians may bring themselves to wonder whether it is good for them to be found fighting on the side of Russia even against China. Those views will not come obtrusively to the surface while the conflicting interests of all the allies are threatened. Japan has to take into account that she cannot stand alone. Her expansionist ideas forbid her to withdraw from the campaign now in progress, and as assisting in it she must steer her course with prudence. She has to look forward to the time, possibly not many months distant, when she and Russia will stand looking into each other's eyes preparatory to entering upon a long and deadly struggle for supremacy in the Yellow Sea. If that day should come the other Powers may be compelled to take, sides, in which case a sanguinary contest more dreadful than anything the world has yet seen will foliow. As it is always the unexpected which happens any guesses as to the manner in which the Powers . would range themselves must be regarded as in the highest degree problematical. Yet with that reservation it is not easy to see how the United States and Britain could fail to adopt the Japanese rather than the Russian view.

The existence of the present trouble raises the question of how far the Powers foresaw the conflicts of the last twelve months. There are not wanting signs that the Continental Governments knew what was coming, although they may have been deceived in their estimates of what China could achieve in the way both of attack and defence. When the history of the period comes to be written it will probably be shown that such knowledge led the Powers to refrain from interfering in Africa. Or, if it be pressing the suggestion too closely to use the word " knowledge," may we not fairly assume that a dread of the contingency which has arisen operated in the way we suggest ? Yet there is more in the problem than that. It has been assumed that when the China-Japan war ended, and Japan, although having the moral support of Britain, was browbeaten into quiescence by a coalition of Germany with Russia and France, Britain failed to proceed to active interference because she felt herself not strong enough, even allied with Japan, to face the combination. But there is another alternative.

It is that Britain knew a great deal more of the conspiracy in Africa than she is assumed to have known, and also of the Continental support being accorded to it. Consequently, although it is certain that she failed to realise the seriousness of the situation altogether, and still hoped for peace, and therefore was notprepared for the war which the Boers commenced, she may yet have realised it sufficiently to recognise that if she helped Japan her interference might be the signal for the outbreak of a war in Africa prepared for her by an arrangement between Kruger and Steyn and one or more of the Powers. That the precious device should have resulted in the abolition of the Bopr republics, in the whole of the European Powers and the United States finding themselves confronted in China with the gravest situation of the century, and in what bids fair to put it out of the power of Russia to threaten us in India for a generation to come, is but another illustration of Burns's moralising : —

The best laid schemes o' mice an' men Gang aft a-gley ; An' leave us naught but grief an' pain For promised joy,